University of Nevada, Reno WE DON’T LIKE IT, BUT WE’LL LIVE THERE: THE CONFLICT BETWEEN STATED OPINION AND ACTION REGARDING NUCLEAR FACILITIES A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science. by Courtenay Jo Burns Dr. Eric Herzik/Dissertation Advisor May, 2017 © by Courtenay Jo Burns 2017 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED THE GRADUATE SCHOOL We recommend that the dissertation prepared under our supervision by COURTENAY JO BURNS Entitled We Don't Like It But We'll Live There: The Conflict Between Stated Opinion And Action Regarding Nuclear Facilities be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Eric Herzik, Advisor Kevin Banda, Committee Member John Dobra, Committee Member William Eubank, Committee Member Thomas Harris, Graduate School Representative David W. Zeh, Ph. D., Dean, Graduate School May, 2017 i ABSTRACT Courtenay Jo Burns: We Don’t Like It, but We’ll Live There: The Conflict between Stated Opinion and Action Regarding Nuclear Facilities (Under the direction of Eric Herzik) I examine the difference in public opinion between those living in the communities near nuclear facilities and those living farther away in multiple ways. First, I measure this quantitatively through analysis of two public opinion data sets: the General Social Survey is used to explore if/how basic public opinion (pro-nuclear versus anti-nuclear) can be predicted based on individual demographics. In other words, it is used to attempt to define who is most likely to express positive (negative) opinion. The Energy Survey 2008 conducted by Knowledge Networks for the American Clean Skies Foundation is used to explore public opinion regarding nuclear facilities in a more in-depth fashion via a series of questions focusing on harm, expense, amount of use, and willingness to live near nuclear facilities. Additionally, I measure expressed public opinion qualitatively through content analysis of newspaper articles and editorials published in the communities around nuclear facilities. I also analyze the transcripts of town hall meetings that took place (or are taking place) for each facility during the licensing process. Overall, this research attempts to explain the difference in public opinion concerning nuclear facilities by those living close to and far from them. Combined, the qualitative and quantitative portions of this research will allow for the development of a more complete view of the public opinion surrounding nuclear facilities, the factors that influence this opinion, and how this opinion changes over time. It will also allow for a move toward an explanation of why the communities around nuclear facilities grow in population, despite vehemently expressed negative sentiments. This research will lead to a better understanding of the true determinants of opinion regarding nuclear facilities and will suggest how decision ii makers can use this new understanding during the policy development stages of nuclear projects. iii For my Father iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I owe a great deal to many groups and individuals. I am thankful to many of my classmates and colleagues, all of whom provided me with friendship and encouragement during my graduate school career. Additionally, I owe a great debt to my dissertation committee. Eric Herzik, Bill Eubank, Kevin Banda, Tom Harris, and John Dobra all offered a great deal of helpful feedback and guidance about my research during my time at UNR. Eric Herzik served as my advisor and deserves additional thanks for his generosity with both his time and his resources. Without his patient counsel I would not be where I am today, and for that I am very appreciative. I would like to thank Daela Gibson, Brianna Lamanna, and Alyssa Black, my best friends, for helping me through the non-academic parts of graduate school and for their constant belief in my ability to finish this dissertation. I am thankful to my aunt and uncle, who once told me I couldn’t do this; I’m happy to prove them wrong. Finally, I’m thankful to my parents who bought me so many books and never in my life uttered words of doubt. v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW ..........................................................1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Research Question ...................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Significance of the Research ...................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Literature Review ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.5 Theoretical Approach .............................................................................................................. 12 1.6 Hypotheses ................................................................................................................................ 16 1.7 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 17 1.8 Contribution of this Research ................................................................................................. 20 2 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ..........................................................................................21 2.1 General Social Survey .............................................................................................................. 21 2.1.1 Data Description ................................................................................................................. 21 2.1.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 22 2.1.3 Results and Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 24 2.2 Energy Survey 2008 ................................................................................................................. 30 2.2.1 Data Description ................................................................................................................. 30 2.2.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 31 2.2.3 Results and Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 35 3 QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS .............................................................................................47 3.1 DIABLO CANYON ................................................................................................................. 49 3.2 VICTORIA STATION ............................................................................................................ 61 3.3 LEVY COUNTY ...................................................................................................................... 70 4 INTEREST GROUPS .........................................................................................................80 5 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................82 Implications of this Research ........................................................................................................ 84 Limitations of this Research .......................................................................................................... 87 Future Research ............................................................................................................................. 88 APPENDIX 1: Positive/Negative Words and Phrases Used to Determine Opinion of Speakers/Articles ...............................................................................................................90 APPENDIX 2: Interest Groups, Areas of Expertise, and Government Associations of Speakers, by Facility .........................................................................................................94 APPENDIX 3: Topics Mentioned by Speakers, by Facility ...............................................97 REFERENCES .....................................................................................................................100 Scholarly Sources ......................................................................................................................... 100 Public Comment Sessions ............................................................................................................ 118 Newspapers ................................................................................................................................... 119 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1: Logistic Regression Results for Chapter 2.1……………………..……..………....25 Table 2-2: Marginal Effects for Table 2-1...……………………..…………………………...26 Table 2-3: Ordered Logistic Regression Results for Chapter 2.2……………………………..36 Table 2-4: Marginal Effects for Table 2-3...………………………………….....……………37 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3-1: California – Areas around Diablo Canyon ………………………………………54 Figure 3-2: Diablo Canyon – Population Change in Surrounding Areas …………………….60 Figure 3-3: Texas – Areas around Victoria Station …………………………………….…….64 Figure 3-4: Victoria Station – Population Change in Surrounding Areas ……………………67 Figure 3-5: