March 2014 Prepared by: RDG Planning & Design in association with Kadrmas, Lee, & Jackson Chapter 1 2 Table of Contents 1 | Market Review 2 | Existing Conditions 3 | Strategic Planning 4 | Downtown Development Plan 5 | Implementing the Plan Acknowledgements Williston City Commission Steering Committee City Commission Approved on March 11, 2014 Brad Bekkedahl Ryan Agnes Chris Brostuen Brad Bekkedahl Tate Cymbaluk Brian Bolinske CONSULTANT TEAM Howard Klug Glenn Boyeff RDG Planning & Design E. Ward Koeser Matt Grimshaw www.rdgusa.com Dave Hanson City of Williston Staff Kent Jarcik Kent Jarcik - City Planner Howard Klug Kadrmas, Lee, & Jackson Rachel Ressler - Project Manager Amy Krueger www.kljeng.com Bob Hanson Deeann Long Donald Kress Rachel Ressler Monte Meiers Angela Skogen Dave Tuan Steve Slocum Shawn Wenko Shawn Wenko Chuck Wilder An Introduction Amidst the scenic, quiet expanse of the grasslands and able oil in the Williston Basin and eased fears that the cur- welcomes new people and subsequently deepens our ties the nearby badland ravines that echo ages past, the City rent boom would be short-lived. Though development to our heritage, future ambitions, culture and each other of Williston takes center stage in America’s latest en- continues to push outwards, the downtown core of Wil- ergy boom. The community and its long-term residents liston has never been more important. …melting pot centered around the downtown watch the associated changes with a careful eye. Stretch- ing back to a time when Lewis and Clark’s team reunited …Long-term residents – looking for improved quality of …affordable housing nearby in their westward exploration, Williston remains life as well as a link to their “small town” heritage…see- a place where people come together from all parts of ing a movie from the balcony seats at the Grand The- …services, retail and restaurants that meet the needs of the country -- some settling deep in this resilient commu- atre…celebrating Band Day with their family… new and old residents alike nity, but others, by choice or by necessity, passing quickly through this starkly beautiful land. …New residents looking for a place that welcomes them With change slowing and speeding past the community and encourages their settlement into a vibrant commu- of Williston, our downtown becomes our rock in the river Today, Williston encounters its largest, and perhaps most nity. that is a place of refuge…that both welcomes new peo- sustaining, oil boom yet. Recent studies by the U.S. Geo- ple and subsequently deepens our ties to our heritage, logical Survey doubled the estimated amount of extract- …rock in the river that is a place of refuge…that both future ambitions, culture and each other. by Laura Kessel - past resident and project planner chapter ONE Market Review A sound downtown development program must be based on market potential. This chapter reviews impor- tant demographic and market characteristics that guide planning for the future of the district. This market anal- ysis quantifies future development markets for the City and considers downtown’s share of that demand. 7 Chapter 1 The Williston area is exploding with population and de- MAP 1.1: Market Areas for Williston mand for new services, and downtown Williston is situ- ated to take advantage of a large number of potential customers in a 60-mile radius. However, the uncertainty of the future of the oil boom is making it difficult to plan for the future and is causing some hesitation to provide financial backing for large projects. At the same time, the rapid growth makes it difficult to accurately calculate how many potential customers are out there and what they might want out of downtown. With its future so uncertain, the smartest thing that Williston can do is in- vest in its downtown. Downtown Williston has a unique role to play in the region – to provide centralized retail and services in a vibrant, attractive environment. Invest- ing in this asset is one of the best ways that Williston can continue to thrive, both in boom times and in more stable times. MARKET AREAS Downtown Williston draws its customers from a wide area. The primary market for downtown includes the res- idents closest to Williston, within 20 miles of downtown. Residents within 60-miles provide a secondary market area that Williston can draw from, given the right offer- ings. Map 1.1 shows the market areas. Secondary Market (60-mile radius). The second- dents toward the edge of the 60 mile market area ▪ Primary Market (20-mile Radius). The primary ▪ market includes Williston and surrounding townships. ary market includes Watford City, Sidney MT, and may choose to shop in relatively equidistant cities Stanley. It runs north to the Canadian border, east to such as Dickinson and Minot if those communities Residents in this area are likely to buy some or most Highway 8, west to Fort Peck Reservation (MT), and offer more appealing retail options. To compete for of their goods and services in Williston, particularly south to Pearl township (25 miles north of I-94) these “edge” shoppers, downtown Williston will given the limited alternatives in the area. However, need to provide sufficient retail variety and a pleasant many residents may still travel to bigger cities for spe- Williston has the potential to capture the majority of shopping environment to establish itself as a regional cialty items not available in Williston. this market if it can provide the right offerings and shopping destination. establish the downtown as a regional draw. Resi- 8 MARKET REVIEW WILLISTon’s ECONOMIC TABLE 1.1: Per Capita Total Taxable Sales & Purchases FIGURE 1.2: Share of Taxable Sales and Purchases in for Williston and Other North Dakota Cities, 2012 State of North Dakota in 2012, by city SIGNIFICANCE City Taxable Sales Williston is a significant economic player in the State of Williston $232,354 North Dakota. Fargo $26,791 Figure 1.1, taken from the 2012 Williston Impact State- Bismarck $31,956 ment, shows the dramatic increase in quarterly city sales Minot $40,455 tax in Williston alongside the other major North Dakota Grand Forks $22,545 cities from 2007 to 2012. Dickinson $56,926 North Dakota $37,075 Williston’s share of taxable sales in the state has far out- Source: North Dakota Office of State Tax Commissioner 2012 Source: North Dakota Office of State Tax Commissioner 2012 paced its population growth. While Williston has approx- imately 3% of the state’s population, Figure 1.2 shows that it had around 14% of the taxable sales and purchas- FIGURE 1.1: Quarterly City Sales Tax for Williston and Other North Dakota Cities, 2007-2012 es in 2012 ($3.5 billion). Table 1.1 shows that Williston’s level of per capita taxable sales and purchases is 10 times larger than the six other largest cities in North Dakota. This is a highly unusual situation, and reflects the large capital outlay made by the oil industry during that year. (In 2012, taxable sales and purchases for the mining and oil extraction industry in North Dakota were more than $5.1 billion, representing approximately 20% of the total for all industries in the state). Source: Williston Economic Development 2012 9 Chapter 1 - DRAFT 2.10.2013 POPULatiON TRENDS FIGURE 1.3: Historical Population for Williston, 1890-2013 While the biggest challenge for most small downtowns is finding enough customers to keep businesses alive, down- town Williston is in the unique position of struggling to keep up with an exploding potential customer-base, as its population has nearly doubled to around 30,000 in just a few years (this includes temporary residents - the esti- mate for permanent residents is approximately 18,000). Due to the unpredictable nature of the oil industry, the future trajectory of this growth is uncertain. However, many sources estimate that the increased population will be sustained for 20-30 years, with the potential to see an additional 10,000 residents within 5 years. Historical Population Growth Over the past 100 years, Williston’s population has grown, punctuated by sudden population increases in the Source: U.S. Census 2013, Hodur 2013 50s and 70s, followed by slight decline. The period from 2000-2013 has been one of the fastest growth periods ( permanent residents) in Williston’s history, with an increase of approximately ▪ The City of Williston Building Department reports that 2017 Population Potential 42%. (Williston grew by 60% during the 1950s). Figure between 2010-2012, 3,877 housing units were built 1.3 shows the historical population change. in Williston and the 1-mile jurisdiction. A report from Reports from NDSU predict that Williston has the poten- the City estimated that 2,300 would be built in 2013 tial to grow to approximately 40,000 total residents by Population Estimates (see Figure 1.4). This information is used in con- 2017, with approximately 29,000 of those being perma- Williston’s rapid and unpredictable growth in recent years junction with the estimated average household size nent residents. The Williston region, which includes McK- of 2.36 for 2013 (Claritas), to provide the population has made it difficult to estimate the current population enzie, Williams, and Divide counties, has the potential to prediction shown in column 2 of Table 1.2. or make predictions for the future. Estimates vary wide- peak at over 100,000 residents in 2020, then decline to around 90,000 by 2030. (This estimate includes tempo- ly, with recent media reporting numbers ranging from 2012 Population Estimates 25,000 to 40,000. Table 1.2 shows population estimates rary residents.) These population potential estimates are and predictions based on several sources: reports from Estimates for Williston’s population range from 25,000- contingent on the ability of the city to provide housing North Dakota State University (NDSU), Claritas (a nation- 35,000 when including temporary residents, and around and infrastructure for these prospective residents.