PORTLAND PRESS HERALD POLL #6 MAINE 2016 GENERAL ELECTION Prepared by: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. The Survey Center University of New Hampshire October, 2016 Contents Summary ...................................................................................... 1 Technical Report ........................................................................ 16 Questionnaire ............................................................................ 17 Data Tables ................................................................................ 32 The Portland Press Herald Poll Maine 2016 General Election Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center October 2016 Executive Summary PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Hillary Clinton has opened a double digit lead on Donald Trump in Maine. While Clinton enjoys a sizeable lead statewide and in the First Congressional District, the race remains close in the Second Congressional District and could mark the first time that Maine’s two congressional districts award their electoral vote to different candidates. Both nominees continue to be very unpopular, and even the two third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are not very popular. Presidential Trial Heat 1. More than seven in ten (71%) Maine likely voters say they have definitely decided whom they will support for president, 13% are leaning towards someone, and 17% are still trying to decide. a. Democrats (83%) are more likely to be definitely decided on their vote for president than Republicans (67%) and Independents (53%). 2016 US Presidential Election‐‐ Decided On Vote 100% 90% 80% 71% 70% 59% 60% 51% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% June '16 Sept '16 Oct. '16 Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide 2. If the election were held today, 48% would vote for Clinton, 37% would vote for Trump, 5% would vote for Johnson, 3% would vote for Stein, 3% would support another candidate, and were 5% undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning it becomes 48% for Clinton, 37% for Trump, 5% for Johnson, 3% for Stein, 3% for someone else, and 3% remain undecided. a. Both Trump and Clinton have wide leads among members of their party (Trump leads 79%‐8% among Republicans, Clinton leads 87%‐5% among Democrats) while Independents are divided (34% for Trump, 33% for Clinton). b. There is a significant gender gap, as Trump has a modest lead among men 46%‐39% while Clinton leads among women by double digits 57%‐29%. c. There is also a significant gap based upon highest level of education – Trump has a wide lead among likely voters with a high school education or less (58%‐26%) while those with some college education or technical school are divided (45%‐41% Clinton). Meanwhile, Clinton leads among college graduates (48%‐34%) and has a huge advantage among those who have done postgraduate work (79%‐14%). d. Support for Johnson has decreased seven points since September. His greatest support comes from Independents (13%), voters between 18 and 34 (11%), and those who are still trying to decide whom to vote for (10%). 1 Vote For US President * Including Undecided but leaning voters 60% 48% 50% 42% 40% 40% 30% 35% 36% 37% 20% 10% 0% June '16 Sept '16 Oct '16* Clinton Trump Other Undecided 2016 Presidential Election ‐‐ By Party ID 100% 87% 79% 80% 60% 48% 37% 40% 40% 36% 34% 33% 20% 12% 13% 5% 8% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 2% 4% 3%3%3% 1% 2% 3%1%4% 3% 1% 4% 0% Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Other Undecided ME Likely Voters (Sept '16) ME Likely Voters (Oct '16) Democrat Independent Republican Clinton & Trump Support by Party ID 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% June '16 Sept '16 Oct '16 Clinton (Total) Trump (Total) Clinton (GOP) Trump (GOP) Clinton (DEM) Trump (DEM) Clinton (IND) Trump (IND) 2 3. Clinton continues to hold a wide lead in Maine’s First Congressional district – currently 54% would vote for Clinton, 34% would vote for Trump, 4% would vote for Johnson, 1% would vote for Stein, 3% would vote for someone else, and 4% are undecided. 4. The race for the electoral vote in Maine’s Second Congressional District is a dead heat – 43% would vote for Clinton, 40% would vote for Trump, 6% would vote for Johnson, 4% would vote for Stein, 3% would vote for someone else, and 3% are undecided. a. Support for Trump in the second district has dropped 8 points since September, while support for Clinton has increased by 9 points. Presidential Support By Congressional District 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% June '16 Sept '16 Oct '16 Clinton ‐ CD1 Trump ‐ CD1 Other/Undecided ‐ CD1 Clinton ‐ CD2 Trump ‐ CD2 Other/Undecided ‐ CD2 Presidential Favorability Ratings 5. Both Clinton and Trump remain unpopular, while Johnson and Stein are not as well‐known but are also unpopular in the state. a. Currently only 41% of Maine likely voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, 50% have an unfavorable opinion, 8% are neutral, and 1% are unsure. Clinton’s net favorability rating (the percentage who have a favorable opinion minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion) is ‐9%, up from ‐17% in September. i. Clinton is very popular among Democrats (+65%) but very unpopular among Independents (‐36%) and Republicans (‐86%). Hillary Clinton Favorability ‐‐ Likely Voters 100% 80% 57% 54% 60% 50% 40% 41% 36% 37% 20% 0% June '16 Sept '16 Oct '16 Favorable Unfavorable 3 b. Only 31% of Maine likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, 62% have an unfavorable opinion, 5% are neutral, and 1% are unsure. Trump’s net favorability rating is ‐31%, down from ‐26% in September. i. Trump is popular among Republicans (+43%), and very unpopular among Independents (‐32%), and Democrats (‐90%). Donald Trump Favorability ‐‐ Likely Voters 100% 80% 62% 62% 58% 60% 40% 32% 20% 28% 31% 0% June '16 Sept '16 Oct '16 Favorable Unfavorable c. Only 16% of Maine likely voters have a favorable opinion of Gary Johnson, 35% have an unfavorable opinion, 9% are neutral, and 40% don’t know enough about him to say. Johnson’s net favorability is ‐19%, down from ‐2% in September. i. Johnson is unpopular among Democrats (‐32%) and Republicans (‐12%), while Independents are divided (+1%). Gary Johnson Favorability ‐‐ Likely Voters 100% 80% 60% 35% 40% 21% 20% 19% 16% 0% Sept '16 Oct '16 Favorable Unfavorable d. Only 12% of Maine likely voters have a favorable opinion of Jill Stein, 23% have an unfavorable opinion, 7% are neutral, and 58% don’t know enough about her to say. Stein’ net favorability is ‐ 11%, down from ‐5% in September. i. Stein is somewhat unpopular among Independents (‐8%) and unpopular among Republicans (‐25%), while Democrats are divided (‐1%). 4 Jill Stein Favorability ‐‐ Likely Voters 100% 80% 60% 40% 23% 19% 20% 0% 14% 12% Sept '16 Oct '16 Favorable Unfavorable Effect of Clinton Campaign Emails/Trump Tape 6. Most Maine likely voters (76%) have heard a great deal (42%) or a fair amount (34%) about the Clinton campaign emails released by Wikileaks, 18% have heard only a little, and 5% have heard nothing at all. 7. A majority (57%) of Maine likely voters say the emails make no impact in their decision to vote for Clinton, 39% say it makes them more likely to vote against Clinton, and 2% say it makes more likely to vote for her. a. 64% of Republicans, 43% of Independents, and 15% of Democrats say they are more likely to vote against Clinton. 8. Even more Maine likely voters (83%) have heard a great deal (56%) or a fair amount (27%) about the Trump Access Hollywood video, 10% have heard only a little, and 5% have heard nothing at all. 9. A majority (59%) of Maine likely voters say the video makes no impact in their decision to vote for Trump, 38% say it makes them more likely to vote against Trump, and 2% say they are more likely to vote against Trump. a. 60% of Democrats, 35% of Independents, and 16% of Republicans say they are more likely to vote against Trump. 5 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS In the First District, Democratic Congresswoman Chellie Pingree, who is seeking her fifth term, holds a commanding lead over her Republican challenger, Mark Holbrook. In the Second District, Republican Congressman Bruce Poliquin is in a dead heat with former State Senator Emily Cain. Congressional Trial Heat 1. If the election were held today 59% would vote for Pingree, 24% would vote for Holbrook, 3% would vote for someone else, and 13% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning 61% would vote for Pingree, 28% would vote for Holbrook, 3% would vote for someone else, and 8% are undecided. a. Pingree leads 92%‐3% among Democrats and 45%‐24% among Independents, while Holbrook leads 72%‐20% among Republicans. Vote For US Congress CD1 * Including Undecided but leaning voters 70% 64% 61% 56% 60% 50% 40% 34% 28% 30% 22% 20% 10% 0% June '16 Sept '16 Oct '16* Pingree Holbrook Other Undecided 2. In a rematch of the 2014 election, Bruce Poliquin is in a dead heat with Emily Cain – Currently 43% of Second CD likely voters would vote for Cain, 42% would vote for Poliquin, 4% would vote for someone else, and 11% undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning 46% would vote for Cain, 44% would vote for Poliquin, 4% would vote for someone else, and 6% are undecided. a. Poliquin leads 83%‐10% among Republicans and Cain leads Democrats 87%‐10%. Poliquin currently holds the advantage among Independents (41%‐32%). Vote For US Congress District 2 * Including Undecided but leaning voters 70% 60% 45% 46% 50% 41% 40% 44% 30% 40% 35% 20% 10% 0% June '16 Sept '16 Oct '16* Cain Poliquin Other Undecided 6 3.