INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT POLICY ANNUAL REPORT 2016 2 DEAR FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES, 2016 has been both a tur- During the year, ISDP of ISDP’s focus regions. bulent and eventful year. has gone through some Given these challenges, Events such as the failed structural changes. What ISDP’s work is needed Turkey coup, North Ko- were formerly known as now more than ever. We rea’s nuclear tests, the in- Initiatives now function as will therefore continue to auguration of Myanmar’s Centers. Specifically, ISDP contribute to global peace, new government, and increased focus on its security, and stability, and parliamentary elections in Stockholm China Center, expand understandings of Georgia have called for ex- the Center for Transna- international affairs. pert analysis, and in-depth tional Threats and the We look forward to con- discussion and dialogue. Japan Center, with valued tinually deepening coop- Thus, ISDP has continued results already starting to eration with our sponsors to function as a network show. and partners, receiving hub by bridging the gap Another positive develop- feedback about our work, between academia and ment was the launch of the and meeting you at our policymakers. Throughout new ISDP website, which events and seminars in the the year ISDP has provid- brought a much-needed coming year. ed timely information, update in both form and analysis, and recommen- function. dations to the internation- Sincerely, al policy community. 2017 brings a new series of complex problems to each Niklas Swanström & Svante E. Cornell 3 ISDP Country Representatives ISDP Focus Countries MISSION ISDP’s mission is to applied research, of regions and countries expand understanding publications, research under study, and of international affairs cooperation, public continuous interaction in its areas of focus. lectures, and seminars. with a broad cross-section Concentrating on the ISDP strives to work of these societies. inter-relationship between closely with governments The Institute strongly security, conflict, and and independent believes in ethnic diversity, development, ISDP works organizations located gender equality, and to further security and in its regions of study religious and political development through and to pursue extensive freedom and firmly stands its analysis as well as collaborative projects, for it in all aspects of its practical activities aimed at such as through exchanges work. promoting dialogue. of researchers and the Since 2007, the Institute organizing of joint has provided independent conferences. analysis to policy makers ISDP holds firm to and other relevant the conviction that institutions. The Institute an understanding of functions as a focal point international affairs for academic, policy, requires a deep and and public discussion of comprehensive knowledge its focus areas through of the culture and history 4 TWO PROGRAMS ISDP operates through two The Asia Program institutions, and the principal and permanent conducts research into private sector. programs: the Asia Pro- security and development The Silk Road Studies gram and the Silk Road challenges in the Asian Program runs a Joint Studies Program, these region with a focus on the Transatlantic Research are the Institute’s primary sub-regions of Northeast, and Policy Center with units. ISDP also incor- Southeast, and South the Central-Asia Caucasus porates the cross-cutting Asia. As such, it carries Institute at Johns Hopkins Center for Transnational out policy-oriented University’s School of Threats, which straddles and practical research, Advanced International the two programs. Within facilitates confidence- Studies, Washington D.C. these two principal Pro- building exercises, and The Program focuses on grams, work at ISDP is organizes conferences the western part of Eur- organized in Centers and and seminars. The main asia, Central Asia, the Cau- Projects. Centers have a objectives are not only casus, Turkey, and Eastern long-term scope and focus to be a bridge between Europe. The main activ- on larger thematic areas academia and policy ities and research are on whereas Projects are estab- but to provide strategic state-building and political lished to deliver specific insights and policy development, security outputs with a deeper and recommendations to and conflict, as well as the narrower focus, within a decision-makers in relationships between the short-term framework. governments, international regions and the West. Independent thinking, strategic solutions 107 70 MEDIA QUOTES PUBLICATIONS 43 EVENTS 5 MARITIME SECURITY Rich in fisheries, potential witnessed increasingly energy resources, assertive maneuvers by surrounded by rapidly stakeholder fishing fleets, In an unexpected turn, developing states, and coast guards, navies and the newly elected encompassing globally air forces. In the SCS, Philippine president strategic transport routes, China has unilaterally Rodrigo Duterte the East China Sea (ECS) initiated land reclamations, adopted a distinctly and South China Seas construction projects, and pro-China position. (SCS) have become a alleged militarization focal point for territorial of the area. Stand-offs and maritime tensions. have affected policy and Beijing considers that led to volatile outbursts Philippines on a case over the territorial features in of nationalism. Failure “maritime jurisdiction” in these seas constitute an to de-escalate may turn the SCS. indivisible part of China’s a regional dispute into a Looking ahead, the territory and that the area global conflict. election of Donald is as a buffer against US Major developments in Trump may result in a encirclement. 2016 have centered on withdrawal of US support These disputes pose a the Philippines. In July to the area, and raise the marked threat to East the Permanent Court of importance of regional Asian regional security. Arbitration ruled against states’ own foreign and Both the ECS and SCS have China and in favor of the security policies. 6 CHINA This year saw the launch it hosted the 9th annual two prominent Chinese of the ISDP’s Stockholm Joint Conference with think tanks, namely the China Center, which will the Chinese Academy of Central Compilation and serve to more effectively Military Science (AMS), in Translation Bureau (CCTB) leverage its networks and Stockholm on the subject of the Communist Party of conduct China-related of cyber security. Further, China (CPC) and Xinhua activities in a more ISDP experts participated News Agency, High-end targeted manner. During in seminars worldwide. Think Tank. 2016, the Stockholm China In addition to conducting Center hosted five guest research, the China Center researchers from the hosted dialogue sessions Chinese communist party between European and as well as military and Chinese government, academic institutions. political and academic The Stockholm China institutions. The Stockholm Center held 15 events, China Center experts have with international also consulted external speakers presenting on organizations such as the subjects ranging from Swedish parliament. Sino-Nordic relations ISDP has also signed to the South China Sea a Memorandum of issue. On the 24th of May, Understanding with 250+ 12% 100+ disputed islands of the world’s Chinese vessels fishing catch operate in SCS THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE RESTRAINING CHINA IN THE 一 带 一 路 SOUTH CHINA SEA: THE LIMITS OF U.S. LEVERAGE - ISDP - Hamzah Connecting China and Europe through The United States has been unable to Central Asia, the Belt & Road Initia- restrain China from pursuing its ambi- tive will encompass 65 countries and tions in the South China Sea. 4.4 billion people. Backgrounder, June, 2016 Policy Brief, No. 194, April, 2016 7 COERCIVE DIPLOMACY In 2016, North Korea nuclear state. This year’s rapidly developed its US-ROK joint military missile and nuclear exercise, which was the ...it is predicted that capabilities. More than largest yet, and the deci- North Korea will have 30 missile tests were sion to deploy the THAAD the ability to develop conducted including anti-ballistic missile system a nuclear warhead by submarine-launched in the Korean Peninsula 2020. ballistic missiles. The most were perceived by Pyong- alarming tests were the yang as acts of aggression. two nuclear tests that were North Korea’s behavior, conducted only seven however, has received months apart. With the strong criticism from the current level of progress, international community, it is predicted that North as can be seen from the Korea will have the ability tougher sanctions imposed difficult to predict how the to develop a nuclear this year and the limited inter-Korean relationship warhead by 2020. aid received when the will develop in 2017. The nuclear and missile country was hit by a natu- However, the uncertainty tests were carried out by ral disaster. also brings room for new North Korea as an act of With the new US President opportunities that can self-defense as well as to and impeachment scandal bring about change in the receive recognition as a in South Korea, it is region. 8 KOREA ISDP’s Korean Peninsula the response from the in Beijing on the ongoing project published 13 international community. situation in the region. articles this year. Topics The expert panelists also ISDP also hosted three ranged from the DPRK’s proposed possible steps Korean guest researchers nuclear tests to the ‘Trump that could be taken in from South Korea’s effect’ in South Korea. order to reach a potential government departments A backgrounder on the resolution. Further, and media outlets. deployment of THAAD throughout the year, ISDP in the Korean Peninsula sent delegations to South was also published to Korea, DPRK and China. analyze an issue that ISDP’s experts were widely may potentially cause quoted by international significant changes to the media organizations such security structure of the as the Japan Times, Radio region. Free Asia, Radio Sweden. As a response to the fourth ISDP also participated nuclear test, ISDP held a in events both on the forum entitled, After the national and international Test: North Korea and the level. Presentations were Nuclear Dilemma.