Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1996-12 Counter-organization targeting: a theoretical framework for analysis Osborne, Joseph E Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/32029 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS COUNTER-ORGANIZATION TARGETING: A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS by Joseph E. Osborne Daniel C. Daoust December, 1996 Thesis Advisor: Gordon McCormick Second Reader: Terry Johnson Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 19970422 129 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average I hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORTDA1E 3. REPORTTYPEANDDATES COVERED December 1996. Master's Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE COUN1ER-ORGANIZA TION TARGETING 5. FUNDING NUMBERS A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS 6. AUTHOR(S) Joseph E. Osborne & Daniel C. Daoust 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER Monterey CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION/ AVAILABILITY STA1EMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The purpose of this thesis is to present and substantiate a theory of counter-organization targeting. This thesis achieves this objective by creating and testing a framework for analysis which blends the principals of organization theory with classic counterinsurgency theory. The goal of this framework is to provide an analytical tool for operational-level targeting of adversary organizations during war, conflict, and stability and support operations. This study analyzes the historical precedents of counter-organization targeting to demonstrate its viability as a necessary condition for success in counterinsurgency campaigns. Additionally, by applying the framework against an unresolved case, this study validates its applicability against a broader spectrum of the operational continuum. As a result, this thesis offers an innovative framework allowing for a logical and common sense approach to observing, assessing, targeting, and interdicting adversary organizations. Finally, this thesis holds both predictive qualities with respect to understanding an organization's future behavior, as well as prescriptive qualities, in the sense of systematically attacking and neutralizing the same organization. This thesis also expands the concepts offered in U.S. Army Field Manuall00-20, Stability and Support Operations, and bridges the gap between the strategic, and the tactical levels of campaign planning and execution. 14. SUBJECT 1ERMS Covert Organization; Targeting; Analysis; Stability and Support 15. NUMBER OF Operations PAGES 209 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICA- 18. SECURITY CLASSIFI- 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICA- 20. LIMITATION OF TION OF REPORT CATION OF THIS PAGE TION OF ABSTRACT ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 298-102 ... ' ' " ii Approved for public release; ~istribution is unlimited. COUNTER-ORGANIZATION TARGETING A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS Joseph E. Osborne Major, United States Army B.S., Florida StateUniversity, April, 1985 Daniel C. Daoust Major, United States Army B.S. (Ed.), Columbus College, May 1989 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS SPECIAL OPERATIONS/LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 1996 Author: Author: Approved by: Frank C. Petho, Chairman Department of National Security Affairs iii iv ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis is to present and substantiate a t~eory of counter­ organization targeting. This thesis achieves this objective by creating and testing a framework for analysis which blends the principals of organization theory with classic counterinsurgency theory. The goal of this framework is to provide an analytical tool for operational-level targeting of adversary organizations during war, conflict, and stability and support operations. This study analyzes the historical precedents of counter-organization targeting to demonstrate its viability as a necessary condition for success in counterinsurgency campaigns. Additionally, by applying the framework against an unresolved case, this study validates its applicability against a broader spectrum of the operational continuum. As a result, this thesis offers an innovative framework allowing for a logical and common sense approach to observing, assessing, targeting, and interdicting adversary organizations. Finally, this thesis holds both predictive qualities with respect to understanding an organization's future behavior, as well as prescriptive qualities, in the sense of systematically attacking and neutralizing the same organization. This thesis also expands the concepts offered in U.S. Army Field Manual 100-20, Stability and Support Operations, and bridges the gap between the strategic, and the tactical levels of campaign planning and execution. v vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION A. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................... ! B. THEORY PRESENTATION ................................................................................ 5 C. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................. ? II. THEORY DEVELOPMENT, INTEGRATION, AND APPLICATION ................... ll A. COUNTER-ORGANIZATION THEORY DEVELOPMENT ............................ II B. THEORY INTEGRATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DOCTRINAL, PURE-CASE, AND HYBRID MODELS ................................................................. .30 C. ILOC FUNCTIONING AND STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS .............. .47 III. THE HUKBALAHAPS 1946-1954 .......................................................................... 59 A. BACKGROUND ................................................................................................ 59 B. ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................... 60 C. ILOC FUNCTIONING AND STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS ............. 64 IV. THE MALAYAN EMERGENCY 1948-1960 ......................................................... 73 A. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................... 73 B. ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................ 75 C. ILOC FUNCTIONING AND STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS ............ 80 D. CONCLUSION.................................................................................................. 84 V. VIETNAM, THE VC, AND THE PHOENIX PROGRAM ................................. 87 A. BACKGROUND .............................................................................................. 87 B. ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................ 90 vii C. ILOC FUNCTIONING AND STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS ............... 94 D. CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................... 98 E. EPILOGUE TO THE HISTORICAL CASES ..................................................... WI VI. TERROR, INC. - THE ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION ......................................... 105 A. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. l05 B. THE ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION ................................................................ lOS C. ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................... ll5 D. STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ILOC FUNCTIONING ............. l22 E. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................. l33 VII. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................... l37 A. FINDINGS .......................................................................................................... l37 B. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................ l47 APPENDIX A. STRATEGIC/MACRO-LEVEL ANAL YSIS ...................................... l51 APPENDIX B. TACTICAL-LEVEL MICRO-TARGETING PROCEDURE .............. l65 APPENDIX C. MIDDLE EAST EVENTS/ANO ACTIVITY CHRONOLOGY ......... l71 LIST OF REFERENCES ...............................................................................................