Yacob Arsano Ethiopia and the Nile Dilemmas of National and Regional Hydropolitics © 2007, ETH Zurich and Yacob Arsano Center for Security Studies, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich ETH Zentrum SEI, Seilergraben 49, CH-8092-Zurich, Switzerland. Tel. ++41 (0)44 632 40 25 Fax ++41 (0)44 632 19 41 www.css.ethz.ch Author contact Yacob Arsano, Addis Ababa University, Department of Political Sciences and International Relations, Email: [email protected] Fulltext online available at www.isn.ethz.ch All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without the prior written permission of the author except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. Cover-Photo Tis Isat Falls / Blue Nile Falls by Torleif Svensson Layout and graphics Fabian Furter Fonts Adobe Caslon Pro News Gothic Std. (Cover) ISBN 3-905696-14-2 Ethiopia and the Nile Dilemmas of National and Regional Hydropolitics Thesis presented to the Faculty of Arts of the University of Zurich for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Yacob Arsano of Ethiopia Accepted in the summer semester on the recommendation of Prof. Dr. Andreas Wenger and Prof. Dr. Kurt R. Spillmann Zurich, Acknowledgements his study was conducted within the framework of the Individual TProject IP7 (Environmental Change and Confl ict Transformation) of the Swiss National Center of Competence in Research (NCCR) North–South: Research Partnerships for Mitigating Syndromes of Global Change. Th e NCCR North-South is co-funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF) and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). Th e NCCR is a research instrument of the Swiss National Science Foundation. I am deeply indebted to numerous persons and institutions for their invaluable support in bringing my study to its completion. Prof. Dr. Andreas Wenger, my main thesis supervisor and director of the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Zurich, has tirelessly guided my work. Without his critical review and constant support throughout my study the present work could not have been com- pleted. I sincerely appreciate his keen interest in the topic of this study in general and in my work in particular. I am greatly indebted to Prof. Dr. Kurt R. Spillmann and Dr. Guenther Baechler. Prof. Dr. Kurt R. Spillmann, former director of the Center for Security Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, provided invaluable support in facilitating my admission and placement at the University of Zurich. He also granted me a research associateship at the prestigious Center for Security Studies, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich. His personal encouragement and sincere friend- ship greatly boosted my work morale throughout my participation in ECOMAN (a research project on Ecological Confl ict Management and Consensus Building In the Horn of Africa, co-directed by himself and Dr. Guenther Baechler). Dr. Guenther Baechler, Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Aff airs, former head of Confl ict Prevention and Transformation at the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, (former director for the Swiss Peace Foundation), has been very keen in searching for ways and means of confl ict prevention and transformation in the Horn of Africa in general 3 Ethiopia and the Nile and in the Nile basin in particular. Not only did he encourage me to develop the present study topic, but he also provided me with a Swiss Peace Foundation fellowship during the fi rst year of this study. In addi- tion, I have greatly enjoyed his warm friendship and benefi ted from his continuous encouragement. I sincerely acknowledge the frank and constructive comments made by professor Dr. Alexander J.B. Zehnder, former director of EAWAG (Swiss Federal Institute for Environmental Science and Technology, ETH Zurich), at present president of the ETH board, during the consultative panels of the ECONILE Project. I am very much indebted to Dr. Simon J.A. Mason of the Center for Security Studies, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, not only for his excellent coordination of the ECONILE Project at ETH- Zurich, but also for his invaluable comments and meticulous editorial inputs on the draft thesis. His warm friendship and unreserved support and encouragement have always been crucial source of strength for my work during the entire period of the study. I sincerely appreciate the warm and close company of his entire family during my stays in Switzerland. My sincere appreciation goes to Frau Erika Girod of the Center for Security Studies at ETH-Zurich for her delightful and most effi cient facilitation of all administrative matters of my study. I express my sincere appreciation to the Nature, Society and Water Program of the Center for Development Studies at the University of Bergen, Norway, for the fellowship they awarded me during the fall season of 2000. I am especially thankful to Prof. Terje Tvedt for kindly allowing me to use his gray and published literature collection on the history and contemporary issues of the Nile basin. I am indeed indebted to my home institution, the Addis Ababa University, for allowing me a leave of absence for the duration of the study. I sincerely appreciate the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Norwegian Institute for Human Rights for topping-up the critical fi nancial support through their joint project (PSIR-NIHR) to help with my family’s expenses while in Ethiopia. I am indebted to a great number of persons who generously provided support for my research in many ways. Th e intellectual dialogue, criti- 4 Acknowledgements cal inputs, colleagial support and warm friendship of the faculty at the Department of Political Sciences and International Relations of Addis Ababa University have been a constant encouragement for my work and valuable connection with my home institution. I remain thankful to His Excellency Ato Shiferaw Jarso, former Minister of Water Resources of Ethiopia, for generously giving his time to keep me abreast on Ethiopia’s perspective of the historical and evolving issues of the Eastern Nile basin. I am very grateful to the successive heads of the Transboundary Department of the Ministry, namely, Ato Imeru Tamirat, Ato Mazamir Madmem, Ato Kidane Assefa, Dr. Mohammed Hagos and Ato Mussa Mohammed for providing access to unclassifi ed documenta- tion, especially relating to the process of the Nile Basin Initiative and the cooperation eff orts among the Eastern Nile basin countries. I remain indebted to Ato Girma Amare and Ato Seifeselassie Lemma, former and successive heads of the Legal Directorate of the Ministry of Foreign Aff airs of Ethiopia, for sharing on several occasions Ethiopia’s legal views and diplomatic strategy with regard to the rights and interests of the country on the Nile Waters. I am deeply indebted to Professor Seyoum Gebre Selassie of Addis Ababa University for his constant encouragement and support throughout my study. I remain indebted to Madame Miriam Mason Martineau for the meticulous English edition of the fi nal draft text. I am also grateful to Samuel Luzi for helping me with the tiresome work of checking the bibliography. Special thanks goes to Eva Ludi of Swiss Peace Foundation, for her excellent coordination of the NCCR North South IP7 project “Envrionemental Change and Confl ict Transformation”. Last but not least, I have been greatly supported by the love and en- couragement of my beloved family. My dear wife Saba Moges carried much of the burden of the family responsibilities during the period of my study. I have often fallen back on her for all sorts of technical assistance during the write-up of the study. I have always enjoyed the wonderful love, understanding and patience of our beloved children Yodit, Iskinder, Alpha and Galila. 5 Table of Contents Acknowledgements 3 Lists of Annexes, Tables, Maps, Acronyms 15 Summary 21 1 Introduction 25 Part One 65 2. Myth and Reality 69 3. Geopolitics of the Eastern Nile Basin 81 Part Two 105 4. Predicaments of Ethiopia’sWater Rules 109 5. Institutional Predicaments of Ethiopia’s Water Sector 125 6. Th e Role of Non-state Sectors 137 7. Th e Economics of Water Resource Development in Ethiopia 145 8. Strategies and Imperatives for Water Resource Development in Ethiopia 171 Part Three 189 9. Inter-state Relations in the Eastern Nile Basin 193 10. Th e Way Forward 231 11 Summary and Conclusion 243 Bibliography 253 Annexes 277 7 Detailed Table of Contents Acknowledgements 3 Lists and Summary 15 List of Annexes 15 List of Maps 16 List of Tables 17 List of Acronyms and Terms 17 Summary 21 1 Introduction 25 1.1 Context of the Study 28 1.1.1 National Context 28 1.1.2 Regional Context 30 1.2 Purpose of the Study 32 1.3 Focus of the Study 33 1.4 Research Question 36 1.5 Literature Review: Th eoretical Approaches and Hypotheses 37 1.5.1 Security Approach 38 1.5.2. Legal/Institutional Approach 44 1.5.3. Socio-Economic Approach 49 1.5.4. Environmental Approach 51 1.6 Action Research Approach 56 1.7 Method 59 1.8 Expected Research Results 61 1.9 Signifi cance of the Study 62 1.10 Th e Structure of the Th esis 63 Part One 65 Introduction 67 2. Myth and Reality 69 Introduction 69 9 Ethiopia and the Nile 2.1 Identity of the Nile 69 2.2 Healing Powers of the Nile 71 2.3 Th e Nile as Unifi er: Environmental Linkage 72 2.4 Th e Nile: Its Physical Power 74 2.5. Th e Paradox of the Nile 76 2.6. A Summary of Popular Perception: Upstream Ethiopia 77 Conclusion 80 3.