Introduction: The State of Europe’s Population, 2003 Changes in the size, growth and composition of the Population growth and population population are of key importance to policy-makers density in practically all domains of life. To provide reli- able demographic indicators, as well as insights According to United Nations estimates, the current into the determinants and consequences of current size of the world population is 6.3 billion. After a and future demographic trends, has been an ongo- period of historically unprecedented population ing concern of the Council of Europe for many growth during the 20th century, when the world years. The Council’s European Population Com- population grew from 1.6 to 6.1 billion, population mittee (CAHP) provides these indicators for all growth rates have come down to a current overall member states, and occasionally also non-member level of 1.2% with further declines projected. The states, in its annual publication “Recent Demo- bulk of world population increase is concentrated graphic Developments in Europe”. The Committee in the developing countries. United Nations popu- also executes policy-oriented population research lation projections, in their so-called medium vari- projects on a wide array of topics relevant to the ant, indicate a world population of 8.9 billion by work programme of the Council. the year 2050 (UN, 2003). As before, the 2004 edition of the report on The share of Europe in the world population has Recent Demographic Developments, contains the declined from some 25% at the beginning of the most comprehensive and up to date Europe-wide 20th century to a current 12%, and a further demographic information. After this Introduction, decrease is foreseen. At the beginning of 2004, the which summarises the major outcomes, the report total population of Europe is estimated at 815 mil- contains an overview of the main indicators in lion. The majority of Europe’s population is living comparative tables, and a methodological note. The in the European Union (56%). The other member CD-Rom presents national reports and demo- states of the Council of Europe account for 43% graphic indicators by country including detailed and the remaining 1% comes to the only non- time-series data for the main indicators. member European country, Belarus (cf Map 1). 11 Introduction During 2003, the total population of Europe growth in 2003, i.e. around 16 per 1000 of the grew by 1.9 million people, corresponding to an population at the beginning of that year (see Fig- annual growth rate of 0.23%. As is shown in Fig- ure 2). However, the composition of these growth ure 1, this increase is due entirely to the previous rates varies: for Ireland the contribution of natural EU-15 countries. Both in the ten new EU member increase more or less equals the contribution of net states and in the other Council of Europe member migration, for Albania and Turkey natural increase states the population slightly declined because of a is the main growth component while for Spain net negative natural increase (more deaths than live migration accounts for the high growth rate. The births) which is not compensated for by a small second country in transition (after Albania) in the surplus of international migration. top ten of fastest growing populations is Azer- European countries vary greatly according to baijan, due to natural increase. Obviously, these geographical size and population. The smallest in two countries are exceptions to the rule that coun- population is San Marino, with 29 thousand inhab- tries in transition can generally be characterised by itants, followed by six other countries with less negative growth rates. Indeed, all the bottom ten than one million inhabitants (Liechtenstein, countries belong to this group, starting with Andorra, Iceland, Malta, Luxembourg, and Ukraine with a population decrease of 8 per 1000, Cyprus).The most populated countries in Europe followed by Georgia (– 6), Bulgaria (– 6), the Rus- are the Russian Federation with 144 million, Ger- sian Federation (– 5), Latvia (– 5), and Lithuania many (83 million), Turkey (71 million), France (– 5). (60 million), the United Kingdom (60 million), and Generally speaking natural population growth is Italy (58 million). Together these six countries declining in Europe; increasingly, natural growth is account for 58% of Europe’s total population. negative or only marginally positive (cf Map 2). Population density, which is a function of a As a result, for Europe as a whole, more people country’s land area as well as its population, also died in 2003 than were born, although this differ- fluctuates greatly from one state to another. The ence is still very small. While in 1990 only three most inhabitants per square kilometre live in Malta countries (Germany, Bulgaria and Hungary) had a (1 265), followed by the Netherlands (481), San negative natural growth, in 2003 this is true for Marino (471) and Belgium (339). Of the countries almost all countries in transition and also for Italy with over 50 million inhabitants, the United King- and Greece. The country with currently the highest dom (246) and Germany (231) have relatively high rate of natural growth is Turkey (14), although also densities. At the other extreme, in northern Europe, in this country this rate is falling slowly but Iceland (just 3 inhabitants per km2), the Russian steadily. Federation (8), Norway (14) and Finland (15) are Most of the countries in transition have been characterised by very low densities. Variation characterised by a modest negative rate of net within countries may however be significant. migration since 1990 (cf Map 3). In 2003, excep- Of the 39 European countries with more than tions are the Czech Republic (+2.5), Croatia (2.5), one million inhabitants, 4 (Ireland, Albania, Spain Slovenia (1.8), Hungary (1.6), the Russian Federa- and Turkey) had the highest rates of population tion (0.7), Belarus (0.5), and the Slovak Republic Figure 1 Population growth in Europe in 2003 million 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Europe EU-15 10 new EU other COE natural increase net migration total growth 12 Introduction Figure 2 Ten highest and ten lowest rates of population growth in Europe in 2003 Ukraine Georgia Bulgaria Russian Federation Latvia Lithuania Estonia Moldova Romania Serbia and Montenegro* total Europe France Norway Switzerland Portugal Azerbaijan Italy Turkey Spain Albania* Ireland -10-50 5 101520 per 1000 population natural increase net migration * Rough estimates. NB Countries with fewer than one million inhabitants have been ignored. (0.3). However, except for Slovenia, net immigra- Population ageing tion in these countries is not sufficient to compen- sate for negative natural growth. One of the most outstanding features of Europe’s demography is population ageing, i.e the decreas- In 2003 the highest rates of positive net migra- ing share of the younger age groups in the overall tion can be found in the southern part of Europe: population and the increasing share of the older age Andorra (70), Cyprus (16), Spain (14), San Marino groups. Viewed from a global perspective, Europe (14), and Italy (11). Of the older countries of immi- is by far the oldest world region. The median age, gration, the Netherlands (0.4) and France (1.0) had i.e the age that divides the population into two the lowest, and Switzerland (4.7) and Belgium equal halves, may be used as an indicator of popu- (3.4) the highest rates of positive net migration in lation ageing. Currently the median age is 37.7 in 2003, the others being Sweden (3.2), Austria (3.1), Europe, compared to a world level of 26.4; in the Norway (2.5), Germany (1.9), the United Kingdom other major world regions the median age is 35.4 in (1.7), and Denmark (1.3). Since the 1990s, the Northern America, 30.7 in Oceania, 26.1 in Asia, group of immigration countries was joined by 24.2 in Latin America and the Caribbean and 18.3 Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, and Ireland, all for- in Africa (UN, 2003). merly countries of emigration. The current age structure of a population reflects its demographic past and is the inevitable outcome Low and declining population growth irrevers- of structural changes in fertility and mortality. As ibly results in changing age structures, with popu- there are no indications of major changes in both lation ageing as its main outcome. these root causes of population ageing in Europe, it 13 Introduction 14 Introduction follows that population ageing is “here to stay”. It In Figure 4 the current highest and lowest rank- is self-evident that population ageing poses major ing countries as regards the shares of the youngest challenges to society. As the main thrust of popula- age groups (0-14 years) in the total populations are tion ageing is yet to come, these challenges can presented. According to this indicator, by far the only intensify. Accommodating policies to cope youngest countries are Albania (32% of its popula- with the multiple impacts of population ageing are tion was 0-14 years of age in 2000), Turkey (29% urgently needed and should be multifold, inter alia in 2004) and Azerbaijan (26% in 2004). The lowest addressing the labour market, social and health shares of younger people are all between 14,2% care, housing, education, social protection, includ- (Bulgaria) and 15.2% (Ukraine). ing pension schemes and social cohesion. Figure 5 presents similar data for the older age The root causes of population ageing are two- groups (65 years or over) in the total populations. fold. On the one hand population ageing is fuelled Five of oldest countries, with shares of over 16%, by low fertility, primarily resulting in lower shares also had low shares of young: Italy, Greece, Ger- of the young.