VULNERABILITY AND RESPONSE MEASURES TO NATURAL HAZARD AND SEA LEVEL RISE IMPACTS: LONG -TERM COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT, NE OF THE STATE OF PARÁ, BRAZIL Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät Geographisches Institut Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel Vorgelegt von CLAUDIO FABIAN SZLAFSZTEIN Mai 2003 This thesis has been submitted to the Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät of the Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel in part-fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Dr. rer. nat. Mai 2003 Referent: Prof. Dr. Horst Sterr Institute of Geography, Christian-Albrechts Universität zu Kiel Co-Referent: Priv.-Doz. Dr. Rainer Wehrhahn Institute of Geography, Christian-Albrechts Universität zu Kiel Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 16.07.2003 Zum Druck genehmigt: 24.07.2003 Dedicated to my father, Julio Szlafsztein (1931-1999) Szlafsztein, 2003 i Acknowledgements The author is grateful to the Department of Geology of the Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPa) and the Institute of Geography of the Kiel University that gave me the opportunity to completely dedicate to this study and research. Special appreciation is expressed to Professor Dr. Horst Sterr (Institute of Geography, Kiel University) for his advices and supervision of my thesis. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support to this thesis by the co-operation between the Centre for Tropical Marine Ecology (ZMT), Bremen, Germany and the Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPa), Belém, Brazil under the Governmental Agreement on Co- operation in the field of Scientific Research and Technological Development between Germany and Brazil, financed by the German Ministry for Education, Science, Research and Technology (BMBF) and the Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Tecnologia (CNPq) – Project number 03F0154A, Mangrove Management and Dynamics MADAM. The heads of the MADAM Project, Professor Dr. Ulrich Saint-Paul (ZMT) and Professor Dr. Horacio Schneider (UFPa) for offering excellent work conditions. I am especially grateful Priv.-Doz. Dr. Rubén Lara who put considerable time and effort into providing comments on the draft manuscript. Also, I thank him and his family for their friendship. Fabio Monteiro and Walber Monteiro have made a great job in supporting me with the Geographic Information System (GIS) set up, digitalizing, and putting a vast amount of data into a workable shape. The staff of the Center for Tropical Marine Ecology (ZMT) is thanked for their reception and support, particularly, Gabi Bohme, and Silke Meyerholz who have helped me substantially with logistic affairs. I also thank the members of the Laboratório de Ciências Ambientais (Núcleo de Meio Ambiente – UFPa), particularly Denis Magalhãaes, for the nice working atmosphere. I like to appreciate the assistance of Mr. Antonio Vale during the field work in Brazil. There have been manifold contacts and good discussion partners who have contributed directly and indirectly to this thesis and who I would like to take the opportunity to thank and mention here: Dr. Uta Berger (ZMT), Dr. Marion Glaser (ZMT), Dr. Gesche Krause (ZMT), Dr. Marcelo Cohen (UFPa), Dr. Richard Klein (Postdam Institute für Klimafolgen- Szlafsztein, 2003 ii Forschung), Dr. Richard Tol (Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University), Mr. Mario Murgucitio Reyes (Empresa de Turismo do Estado do Pará - Paratur), Mr. Santos de Oliveira (Fundação de Terminais Rodoviários do Estado de Pará - FTERPA), Colonel BM José Cupertino Corrêa (comandante geral do Corpo de Bombeiros Militar do Pará e coordenador Estadual de Defesa Civil do Estado do Pará), Engineer Itai Augusto Figueira de Sousa (Centrais Elétricas do Pará S.A – REDE CELPA), Ms. Maria Teresa Piserra De Castro (Mapfre Seguros), Mr. Fábio Lúcio de Souza Costa (Sindicato de Corretores de Seguros do Estado do Pará), Mr. Antonio Jose de Souza Biffi (Chefe do Departamento da Região Norte do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - IBGE), Mr. Kleber (Secretaria de Tributos Municipais da Prefeitura Municipal de Salinópolis), and the staff of the Superintendência Nacional de Loterias e Jogos (Caixa Econômica Federal), the Imprensa Oficial do Estado do Pará, and The Superintendência do Patrimônio da União no Estado do Pará. Finally, I would like to specially thank my family in Brazil (Sylvia and Ariel Szlafsztein) and Argentina (Leja and Gloria Erlich, and Leandro and Silvia Szlafsztein) for their support and encouragement during these years. Szlafsztein, 2003 iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements i List of Figures vi List of Tables xi Summary xii Zusammenfassung xiv Resumo xvi Chapter 1 COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT OF THE NE OF THE STATE OF PARÁ: THE NATURAL HAZARDS ISSUE 1 1.1 The NE Coastal Zone of the State of Pará – The Study Area 5 1.2 The Integrated Coastal Zone Management Programs of Brazil and the State of Pará 9 1.3 The Coastal Zone: An Integrated System and the P-S-I-R Framework 13 1.4 Problem Definition – The Natural Hatards Impacts in the NE of the State of Pará 16 1.5 Final Considerations 20 Chapter 2 PRESSURES ON THE COASTAL ZONE SYSTEM: SEA LEVEL RISE AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT FUTURE SCENARIOS 24 2.1 Climate change and global and relative sea-level rise 26 2.1.1 Climate and Sea-Level Changes in the NE Pará 31 2.1.2 Sea-Level Rise Effects on Coastal Areas 34 2.2 Increasing Population and Development 36 2.2.1 The Socioeconomic Development Scenario 38 2.2.1.1 Large-Scale Socioeconomic Parameters 38 2.2.1.2 Changes in the Productive Strategies 41 a. Fishing 41 b. Tourism and Recreation 43 c. New Economic Activities 47 2.2.1.3 Improved Infrastructure 48 a. Means for Regional and International Integration 48 b. Waterways 50 c. State and Federal Roads 52 d. Rural Electrification 52 2.3 Final Considerations 54 Szlafsztein, 2003 iv Chapter 3 VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS TO NATURAL HAZARDS AND SEA-LEVEL RISE 58 3.1 Vulnerability Assessment 60 3.2 GIS-Based Composite Vulnerability Index for the NE coastal Zone of the State of Pará 64 3.2.1 General Methodology 64 3.2.2 The Evaluation of Natural and Socioeconomic Variables of the CVI 68 3.2.2.1 Natural Variables 70 a. Coastline Length (km) 70 b. Continentality 70 c. Coastline Complexity (Sinuosity and Circularity) 70 d. Flooding Areas 71 e. Coastal Features 72 f. Coastal Protection Measures 72 g. Emergency Relief – Historic Cases 73 h. Fluvial Drainage 73 3.2.2.2 Socioeconomic Variables- Vulnerability Criteria 79 a. Total Population and Population Affected by Floods 79 b. Population Density 80 c. Children population – Total and Affected by Floods 80 d. Elderly Population – Total and Affected by floods 81 e. “Non-Local” Population – Total and Affected by Floods 81 f. Poverty – Human Development Index 82 g. Municipal Budget 82 3.2.3 Results 89 3.3 Final Considerations 92 Chapter 4 HUMAN ADAPTATION MEASURES TO COASTAL PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE 97 4.1 Classification of adaptation strategies and measures 99 4.2 Adaptation Strategies and Measures in the Coastal Zone of the State of Pará 100 4.2.1 No Action 101 4.2.2 Coastal Protection 102 4.2.2.1 Inventory of Stabilization Structures on the NE Coast of the State of Pará 102 4.2.2.2 The Economic Cost of Hard Measures Construction 107 4.2.2.3 The Problems of Hard Stabilization Measures 108 Szlafsztein, 2003 v 4.2.3 Accommodation 112 4.2.3.1 Land use Legal Framework 112 a. The Brazilian Conservation Units System 113 b. Urban Zoning and Setbacks Regulations 116 c. Sea Level Rise Potential Impacts on Coastal Areas Land Use – Study Cases 120 4.2.3.2 Building Style 124 4.2.3.3 Natural Disaster Management – Relief Programs 125 a. The “Defensa Civil” System 125 b. The Performance of the Civil Defense System in Coastal Areas Disasters: A Study Case in Crispim 133 4.2.3.4 Brazilian Natural Disaster Insurance System 136 a. The Public System 137 b. The Private System 139 4.2.3.5 People and Authorities Knowledge Level 146 4.2.4 Retreat 147 4.2.4.1 Retreat Strategies - Study Cases 147 a. Vila dos Pescadores 147 b. Praia do Crispim 150 4.3 Final Considerations 151 Chapter 5 CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS 161 References 173 Annex 186 Szlafsztein, 2003 vi List of Figures Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 Localization map of the areas and ecosystems belonging to the national heritage (Source: Programa Educar, Universidade de São Carlos, 2002). 2 Figure 1.2 Main sectors of the Brazilian coastal area classified by their geographical characteristics (Silveira, 1964). 4 Figure 1.3 Localization of the three sectors of the coastal zone of the State of Pará, sector 1 or Atlantic; sector 2 or Estuarine, and sector 3 or Marajó Island. 6 Figure 1.4 Study area: “Sector 1 or Atlantic” 7 Figure 1.5 Typical views of the activities of the crabs’ collectors (region of Bragança). 10 Figure 1.6 Amount of money destined to the Coastal Management Program of the State of Pará in the period 1996-2001 (source: IOEPA, 1992-2001). 13 Figure 1.7 Factors to be integrated in coastal management (modified from Burbridge, 1999). 14 Figure 1.8 P-S-I-R framework: continuous feedback process in coastal areas (modified from Klein and Nicholls, 1999; Turner and Salomons, 1999). 15 Figure 1.9 An example of a newspaper report informing about coastal flooding; headline “Salinas residents face the power of the March tides” (O Liberal, March 13, 2000). 17 Figure 1.10 Flooding event in Vila dos Pescadores (municipality of Bragança) (Source: Maneschy, 1988). 18 Figure 1.11 Erosion evidences on the beach of Ajuruteua (municipality of Bragança). (a) The cesspits are usually constructed about 25 m from the back part of the houses. (b) Lines of old cesspits (dotted line) allow estimating erosion rates in the last 25 years.