Future of Rail 2050 Arup Rail Arup Rail provides a comprehensive consultancy service for all aspects of the rail industry, from feasibility and planning through to design, implementation and asset management. An in-depth knowledge of the market, combined with a reputation for working at its cutting edge, enables us to deliver appropriate solutions to help our clients, addressing whole-life issues and including safety, reliability, operability and maintenance. Our work at the forefront of the industry has seen us involved in the creation of rail projects that have transformed cities and communities across the world and it is this ethos that has led us to commission this report. Arup Foresight + Research + Innovation Foresight + Research + Innovation is Arup’s internal think-tank and consultancy which deals with the future of the built environment and society at large. We serve Arup’s global business as well as external clients from a broad range of regions and sectors. We help our organisations understand trends, explore new ideas, and radically rethink the future of their businesses. We developed the concept of ‘foresight by design’, which uses innovative design tools and techniques to bring new ideas to life and engage clients and stakeholders in meaningful conversations about change. Contacts TC Chew Chris Luebkeman Global Rail Leader, Arup Arup Fellow and Director [email protected] Global Foresight, Research + Innovation [email protected] Marcus Morrell Lynne Goulding Associate, Foresight + Research + Innovation Analyst, Foresight + Research + [email protected] Innovation [email protected] Released July 2014, updated May 2019 13 Fitzroy Street London W1T 4BQ arup.com driversofchange.com © Arup 2019 Cover Illustraton: © Rob House Contents Foreword 5 Introduction 9 Megatrends 11 User Journeys 29 Conclusion 51 Contributors 52 References 54 Acknowledgements 57 © Lenny Greenwald Foreword TC Chew Global Rail Leader, Arup Across the world, rail is undergoing something from home to destination. Passengers are of a renaissance, with demand propelled already demanding live-updated information by a number of converging trends. Digital and seamless connections to other transport evolution, climate change, increasing demand, modes, expecting a new, more joined-up rapid urbanisation… these mega-trends all travel experience where they are in control. have major implications for the future shape Achieving this requires new thinking and new of our railways, pulling it in new directions. levels of technical integration. We believe there are ways to navigate through The planet’s rapidly changing climate is these trends to develop a rail industry that is recalibrating the risk equation for everyone ready to meet tomorrow’s expectations. and travellers are increasingly aware of their carbon footprint. For those operating rail New questions, exciting answers networks, extreme weather events and rising Digital technologies are appearing at a sea levels are making routes and infrastructure rapid rate, promising innovation across prone to more common flooding. How should the industry’s operations, with improved the rail industry adapt and build resilience into passenger experience a key priority. We such vital and expensive public infrastructure? can already see how smartphones have With each new rail line connecting people transformed the way passengers plan their and communities, rail’s popularity grows. This commutes and leisure travel. Passengers has led to unprecedented growth in demand for will choose rail only if it offers convenience, passenger and freight rail worldwide, but how comfort, speed, safety, reliability and an will existing infrastructure and systems cope? increasingly personalised experience. How do railway operators, designers and planners Physical network, digital world design a rail system that works for digital The staggering increase in service demand natives? means we will grow ever more reliant on the To achieve continued growth, rail services precision and automation new technologies will need to expand their customer focus to bring. Dealing with this will require new encompass the passenger’s entire journey, competencies, knowledge and experience understanding the passenger experience within the industry. Are we doing enough 5 © Arup Beijing SouthRailway Station to empower our existing and future generation workforce to embrace the digital evolution and innovate in this changing landscape? This report looks at the challenges. Rail services will focus on the total Global growth journey… Integrated All over the world, regions that haven’t traditionally had a journey information culture of rail travel are investing with enthusiasm – while and seamless others are looking at how their existing networks can be connections to other enhanced to meet growing challenges. This report looks transport modes beyond the status quo, examines the likely effects of major will create a hassle- world trends, and draws valuable conclusions for existing rail free, holistic travel businesses and new entrants alike. experience. 7 © Ministry of Railways / TFP Farrells New DelhiRailway StationRedevelopment Introduction “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” —Alan Kay If we look backwards as far as we’re looking While the specifics may be difficult to forwards, to the late 1970s, most of the advances forecast, a number of macro-drivers will we now enjoy in railways (not to mention in shape the world in which rail operates. These information communications technology) megatrends will have far-reaching implications would have been unthinkable. In an age of rapid for transport in general and economic, political, social, environmental and rail in particular, and provide the context technological changes, exercises in strategic in which the railways of the future will foresight are not intended to predict the future operate. They will present challenges, but are with complete accuracy. Rather, the idea is also likely to spur innovation to meet to explore possible futures based on these challenges. current trends and trajectories as well as Advances in technology, for instance, will weak signals. have wide-ranging and unknown impacts. Looking ahead to 2050 requires us to think But we can reasonably expect some major in conceptual terms in the hope of pushing advances in how railways operate: more the boundaries of creative thinking. The rail driverless trains, real-time monitoring of industry is often thought of as conservative; rolling stock and infrastructure, improved however there is a need to proceed with accuracy of passenger information, predictive foresight, to embrace creative thinking beyond maintenance planning, and most importantly, projecting the present into the future. seamless journeys integrating with other This thought-piece focuses on the passenger modes of transport. and user experience. The journeys imagined To move forward with innovation, it is here are intended to generate a conversation vital that decisions are made, not solely on past about the future and provide the big picture experiences, but also on future possibilities context for future planning and decision-making and preferred outcomes. The future of rail is by the rail industry and by governments. They something that will be created, not entered into. are also intended to set out a forward-looking So to achieve the desired vision for rail, those and inspiring vision for rail. With the increasing in the rail industry and government should be pace of technological change, perhaps the more asking themselves: if this is the role we want rail imaginative scenarios will come to fruition. to play, how do we ensure things are in place for The case studies indicate trends taking place in this to happen? rail. They are early signs of possible directional change, and reveal directions in which the future could be heading. Whether these become more widely implemented remains to be seen. 9 © Trodel (Flickr) Megatrends Megatrends are the game-changing forces that will shape the world in the future. As drivers of change, these are far-reaching, sustained and relatively certain. These macro forces will present both challenges and opportunities as they transform the way society and markets function. The megatrends described below will have global impacts in terms of mobility and transport infrastructure. Megacities By 2050, around 75% of the world’s population will live in cities. It is estimated that the global urban population is growing at two people per second, adding 172,800 new city-dwellers Megacities are each day.1 A megacity may be a single metropolitan area or two increasing in number or more metropolitan areas that converge to form mega-regions. and size and most of These mega-regions may stretch hundreds of kilometres and be these are located in home to more than 100 million people.2 Examples include the emerging markets. Boston-New York-Washington corridor, the São Paulo-Rio de Janeiro region, or the Hong Kong-Shenhzen-Guangzhou area of China which is home to more than 120 million people. Megacities are increasing in number and size and most of these are located in emerging markets. Four of the world’s existing 24 megacities (cities with populations of over 10 million people) are in China — by 2025 there will be three more, some of the fastest urban expansion in history. Chinese planners hope to merge nine cities in the Pearl River Delta — from Guangzhou to Shenzhen — to create a 26,000 square kilometre urban area that will be 26