CHINESE MILITARY MODERNIZATION AND FORCE DEVELOPMENT A Western Perspective Anthony H. Cordesman and Nicholas S. Yarosh June 22, 2012 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] Note: This report will be updated. Please provide comments and suggestions to [email protected] 1 Contents INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 1: ASSESSING CHINA’S ARMED FORCES .................................................................................. 12 CHAPTER 2: UNDERLYING RESOURCES FOR CHINA’S SECURITY CAPABILITIES .......................... 18 ECONOMIC TRENDS ........................................................................................................................................................... 18 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ................................................................................................................................................... 26 CHAPTER 3: PLA MILITARY DOCTRINE............................................................................................... 33 CHINESE STRATEGIC DOCTRINE ......................................................................................................................................... 33 Active Defense ......................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Local War under Conditions of Informatization ...................................................................................................... 34 People’s War ............................................................................................................................................................................ 35 CHINESE CAMPAIGN DOCTRINE .......................................................................................................................................... 36 Integrated Joint Operations .............................................................................................................................................. 36 Information Warfare............................................................................................................................................................. 37 Integrated Firepower Operations ................................................................................................................................... 38 Mobility ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 39 Comprehensive Support ...................................................................................................................................................... 39 SERVICE STRATEGY ............................................................................................................................................................... 40 CHAPTER 4: CHINESE MILITARY ORGANIZATION ........................................................................ 42 ORGANIZATION OF THE CHINESE SECURITY FORCES ...................................................................................................... 42 Ministry for State Security (MSS) ................................................................................................................................... 42 Ministry for Public Security (MPS)................................................................................................................................ 42 People’s Armed Police (PAP) ........................................................................................................................................... 42 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ..................................................................................................................................... 42 PLA MILITARY ORGANIZATION .......................................................................................................................................... 44 China’s High Command Structure .................................................................................................................................. 44 Organization of the PLA ..................................................................................................................................................... 45 Personnel Trends and Shifts in the PLA’s Force Structure .................................................................................. 49 Shifts in the PLA’s Personnel System ............................................................................................................................ 55 Shifts in Reserve and Militia Force Structure ........................................................................................................... 56 MILITARY SPENDING ............................................................................................................................................................ 58 INSTITUTIONAL PLA MODERNIZATION ............................................................................................................................ 68 Uncertain Pattern of Change............................................................................................................................................ 68 Shifts in PLA Training Practices ..................................................................................................................................... 69 Focus on C4ISR and Information Technology .......................................................................................................... 70 Arms Trade and Technology Transfer .......................................................................................................................... 71 CHAPTER 5: THE PLA ARMY ........................................................................................................................... 76 SHIFTS IN FORCE STRUCTURE, MANPOWER, AND EQUIPMENT ........................................................................... 76 SHIFTS IN FORCE STRUCTURE ........................................................................................................................................ 87 SHIFTS IN MANPOWER ...................................................................................................................................................... 88 TRENDS IN MAJOR EQUIPMENT STRENGTH ............................................................................................................... 90 EQUIPMENT MODERNIZATION ....................................................................................................................................... 94 SHIFTS IN UNIT TRAINING ............................................................................................................................................... 98 Anthony H. Cordesman and Nicholas S. Yarosh 2 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................................................ 98 CHAPTER 6: THE PLA NAVY .......................................................................................................................... 100 PLAN SERVICE STRATEGY ............................................................................................................................................... 100 SHIFT IN FORCE STRUCTURE, EQUIPMENT COMPOSITION, AND MANPOWER .............................................. 102 SHIFT IN FORCE STRUCTURE ....................................................................................................................................... 102 SHIFT IN EQUIPMENT COMPOSITION ......................................................................................................................... 113 SHIFT IN MANPOWER ..................................................................................................................................................... 118 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................................................... 121 CHAPTER 7: PLA AIR FORCE ......................................................................................................................... 123 PLAAF SERVICE STRATEGY ............................................................................................................................................. 123 SHIFT IN FORCE STRUCTURE, EQUIPMENT COMPOSITION, AND MANPOWER .............................................. 123 SHIFT IN FORCE STRUCTURE ....................................................................................................................................... 124 SHIFT IN EQUIPMENT COMPOSITION ......................................................................................................................... 135 SHIFT IN MANPOWER ..................................................................................................................................................... 140 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................................................... 141 CHAPTER 8: PLA SECOND