INSTITUTO TECNOLÓGICO Y DE ESTUDIOS SUPERIORES DE MONTERREY CAMPUS MONTERREY DIVISIÓN DE INGENIERÍA Y ARQUITECTURA PROGRAMA DE GRADUADOS EN INGENIERÍA TECNOLÓGICO DE MONTERREY ® Study of current air cargo infrastructure in Mexico: Current strategic needs for air transportation activities, operational performance and national airport infrastructure TESIS PRESENTADA COMO REQUISITO PARCIAL PARA OBTENER EL GRADO ACADÉMICO DE: MAESTRO EN CIENCIAS ESPECIALIDAD EN SISTEMAS DE CALIDAD Y PRODUCTIVIDAD POR: LUIS ARMANDO TREVIÑO ORTIZ MONTERREY, NUEVO LEÓN NOVIEMBRE 2005 - 1 - INSTITUTO TECNOLÓGICO Y DE ESTUDIOS SUPERIORES DE MONTERREY CAMPUS MONTERREY DIVISIÓN DE INGENIERÍA Y ARQUITECTURA PROGRAMA DE GRADUADOS EN INGENIERÍA Los miembros del comité de tesis recomendamos que el presente proyecto de tesis presentado por el Ing. Luis Armando Treviño Ortiz sea aceptado como requisito parcial para obtener el grado académico de: MAESTRO EN CIENCIAS ESPECIALIDAD EN CALIDAD Y PRODUCTIVIDAD Comité de Tesis: Dr. Dagoberto Garza Núñez Asesor Dr. Neale R. Smith M.C. Héctor Ochoa Grimaldo Sinodal Sinodal Aprobado: Dr. Federico Viramontes Brown Director del Programa de Graduados en Ingeniería Noviembre, 2005 - 2 - DEDICATORIAS: A Dios, que me ha guiado y brindado su luz en cada paso de mi camino A mis padres, Roberto y Graciela, por darme la oportunidad de vivir... los amo con todo mi corazón A mis hermanas Mónica, Graciela y mis sobrinos Paola y Marco… las mejores hermanas del mundo y que me apoyaron en todo momento A ti mi amor… Karina, por haber cambiado mi vida y por brindarme tu amor sin límites A mis amigos y maestros que me han apoyado con sus consejos y sus enseñanzas - 3 - AGRADECIMIENTOS: A Dios, por darme la fortaleza en cada momento… A mis padres, Roberto y Graciela, por su apoyo incondicional, sus consejos, su confianza, su amor, su entrega como padres. Gracias por ser mis padres y mi ejemplo a seguir en la vida… A mi asesor Dr. Dagoberto Garza, le agradezco infinitamente todo su apoyo, sus consejos, su confianza, y sobre todo por creer en mi en todo momento… Al Dr. René Villalobos, Dr. Mark Henderson, Dr. John Fowler y Dr. Jorge Limón que me dieron la oportunidad de lograr uno de mis grandes sueños… A mis amigos de la Maestría en Calidad y Productividad Generación Enero 2003-Mayo 2004 por su amistad invaluable… A mis amigos del Centro de Calidad y Manufactura por estar siempre al pendiente de mí… - 4 - Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 12 2. Introduction 14 3. Literature Research 18 3.1 Characteristics of Air Cargo industry 18 3.1.1 Importance of Air Cargo operations 18 3.1.2 Air Cargo industry structure 19 3.1.3 Origin of Air Cargo operations 20 3.1.4 Air Cargo market environment 20 3.1.5 Significant issues to impact Air Cargo industry 22 3.2 Actual situation of Air Cargo 25 3.2.1 World Air Cargo forecast 25 3.2.2 Air trade behavior in Latin America 26 4. Mexican Air Transportation industry 29 4.1 Historical development of Air Transportation industry in Mexico 29 4.2 Restructure of Air Transportation system in Mexico: Current Mexican 30 Airport Structure 4.3.Classification of Mexican Airports by corporative group and range 32 4.4 Operations realized by Mexican Airports 35 4.5 Participation of Air Cargo in Mexico 41 4.5.1 Overview of Air Cargo operations in Mexico 41 4.5.2 Principal Sets of merchandises imported and exported in Mexico by 43 Air Transportation 4.6 Implication of Free-Trade Agreements in Air Cargo Industry 46 4.7 Current situation of Mexican Air Cargo Industry related to National 47 Free-Trade agreements 4.8 Tariffs and regulations on Air Transportation in Mexico 48 4.9 Current Air Cargo carriers operating in Mexican airports 49 4.10 Analysis of Air Cargo connections in Mexico 55 - 5 - 4.10.1 Analysis of origin – destination flows for domestic Air Cargo 55 transactions 4.10.2 Analysis of origin – destination flows for international Air Cargo 63 transactions 5. Descriptive analysis of operational performance in Mexican Air 69 Transportation system 5.1 Introduction 69 5.2 Suggested procedure for development mathematical models in the strategic 72 air transportation system in Mexico 5.3 Mathematical model of domestic cargo generation 74 5.4 Mathematical model of domestic cargo attraction 102 6. Overall findings and conclusions 120 6.1 Conclusions related to air transportation industry performance 117 6.2 Issues and challenges in Mexican Air Cargo industry 124 7. References 127 Appendix A 133 Appendix B 136 Vita 149 - 6 - Table of Content for figures Fig.1: Forces and Constraints for Air Cargo Growth 21 Fig.2: World Air Cargo Projected Growth by Regions 25 Fig.3: Air cargo behavior between North America and Latin America during 20 26 year span Fig.4: Principal commodities transported by air cargo between North America and 27 Latin American countries Fig. 5: Structure of Mexican Airports System by corporative group 31 Fig 6: Distribution of air transportation operations by corporative group in Mexico 40 during 2003 Fig 7: Total cargo in tons transported during the period 1989-2004. 42 Fig 8: Participation of Regular Air Flights companies on cargo transportation 50 during 2004 Fig 9: Participation of Regional Air Flights companies on cargo transportation 50 during 2004 Fig 10: Participation of National exclusive air cargo companies on cargo 51 transportation during 2004 Fig 11: Participation of National air cargo companies classified by service style 53 during 2004 Fig 12: Airports with domestic cargo movements during 2004 60 Fig 13: Airports with international cargo movements during 2004 67 Fig 14: Normal probability plot of X1 78 Fig 15: Normal probability plot of X2 78 Fig 16: Normal probability plot of X3 79 Fig 17: Normal probability plot of X4 79 Fig 18: Normal probability plot of X5 79 Fig 19: Normal probability plot of X6 80 Fig 20: Normal probability plot of Vj 80 Fig 21: Descriptive statistics plot of Vj 81 Fig 22: Descriptive statistics plot of X1 81 - 7 - Fig 23: Descriptive statistics plot of X2 81 Fig 24: Descriptive statistics plot of X3 82 Fig 25: Descriptive statistics plot of X4 82 Fig 26: Descriptive statistics plot of X5 82 Fig 27: Descriptive statistics plot of X6 83 Fig 28: Normal probability plot of transformed Vj 86 Fig 29: Normal probability plot of transformed X1 86 Fig 30: Normal probability plot of transformed X2 86 Fig 31: Normal probability plot of transformed X3 87 Fig 32: Normal probability plot of transformed X4 87 Fig 33: Normal probability plot of transformed X5 87 Fig 34: Normal probability plot of transformed X6 88 Fig 35: Descriptive statistics plot of transformed Vj 88 Fig 36: Descriptive statistics plot of transformed X1 89 Fig 37: Descriptive statistics plot of transformed X2 89 Fig 38: Descriptive statistics plot of transformed X3 89 Fig 39: Descriptive statistics plot of transformed X4 90 Fig 40: Descriptive statistics plot of transformed X5 90 Fig 41: Descriptive statistics plot of transformed X6 90 Fig 42: Graphical analysis of residuals between transformed X1 and Vj 96 Fig 43: Graphical analysis of residuals between transformed X2 and Vj 96 Fig 44: Graphical analysis of residuals between transformed X5 and Vj 96 Fig 45: Graphical analysis of residuals between transformed X6 and Vj 96 Fig 46: Graphical analysis of studentized residuals vs dependent variable Vj 97 Fig 47: Histogram of standardized residuals 98 Fig 48: Standardized partial regression plot Residuals vs X1 99 Fig 49: Standardized partial regression plot Residuals vs X2 99 Fig 50: Standardized partial regression plot Residuals vs X5 99 Fig 51: Standardized partial regression plot Residuals vs X6 99 Fig 52: Plot of studentized residuals 100 Fig 53: Validation of predicted values vs transformed Vj results 101 - 8 - Fig 54: Normal probability and descriptive analysis plots for Aj 105 Fig 55: Normal probability and descriptive analysis plots for X1 106 Fig 56: Normal probability and descriptive analysis plots for X2 106 Fig 57: Normal probability and descriptive analysis plots for transformed Aj 107 Fig 58: Normal probability and descriptive analysis plots for transformed X1 108 Fig 59: Normal probability and descriptive analysis plots for transformed X2 108 Fig 60: Graphical analysis of residuals between transformed Aj and X2 113 Fig 61: Graphical analysis of residuals between transformed Aj and X6 113 Fig 62: Graphical analysis of residuals between transformed Aj and X4 114 Fig 63: Graphical analysis of residuals between transformed Aj and X1 114 Fig 64: Graphical analysis of studentized residuals vs dependent variable Aj 114 Fig 65: Histogram of standardized residuals 115 Fig 66: Standardized partial regression plot regression plot Residuals vs X1 116 Fig 67: Standardized partial regression plot regression plot Residuals vs X2 116 Fig 68: Standardized partial regression plot regression plot Residuals vs X6 116 Fig 69: Standardized partial regression plot regression plot Residuals vs X4 116 Fig 70: Plot of studentized residuals 117 Fig 71: Validation of predicted values vs transformed Aj results 118 Fig B1: Point-to-point distribution networks 137 Fig B2: Hub-and-spoke distribution networks 138 Fig B3: Quadratic Single Assignment Model realized by O´Kelly, 1987 141 Fig B4: P-Hub Median model defined by Campbell, 1994 142 Fig B5: Linearized Multiple Assignment model defined by Campbell, 1994 143 Fig B6: Uncapacitated hub location problem formulation defined by Campbell, 145 1994 Fig B7: Hub center problem formulation defined by Campbell, 1994 146 Fig B8: Hub covering problem formulation defined by Campbell, 1994 146 - 9 - Table of Content for tables Table 1: Airports that compose the Southeast Airports Corporation (ASUR) 32 Table 2: Airports that compose the Pacific Coast Airports Group 32 Table 3: Airports that compose the Central-North Airports Group (OMA) 33 Table 4: Airports that composed the National Airport System and do not belong to 33 a corporative group.