Population of Pakistan: An Analysis of NSER 2010-11 Population Dynamics Government of Pakistan -BISP- - Dignity, Empowerment, Meaning of Life to the most vulnerable through the most scientific poverty database, targeted products and seamless service delivery nationwide. © Benazir Income Support Programme Material in this publication may be freely quoted or re-printed, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint Research Wing, BISP Researcher: Dr. Durr-e-Nayab Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) and UNICEF. Population Dynamics Population Dynamics 1 Population Dynamics 2 Population Dynamics Table of Contents 1. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………… 05 2. Importance of Understanding Population Dynamics in Literature………………...... 07 3. Methodology……………………………………………………………………………….. 09 4. Dynamics in Population: Findings from the NSER 2010-2011……………………….. 13 i. Population distribution…………………………………………………………...... 13 ii. Age-sex structure………………………………………………………………...... 14 iii. Sex ratios………………………………………………………..………………...... 19 iv. Mean and median age of the population……………………………………...... 21 v. Dependency rate………………………………………………………………....... 22 vi. Household size, type and headship…………………………………………...... 22 vii. Marital status……………………………………………………………………...... 23 5. Conclusions and Implications for BISP Annexure List of Tables Table 1: Population distribution by province/territory and sex…………………………….. 13 Table 2: Changes in population distribution by province from census 1998 to NSER 2010-2011 2010………………………………………………………………………. 14 Table 3: Whipple’s index………………………………………………………………………. 16 Table 4: Myer’s blended index values by province/territory in NSER 2010-2011…….... 18 Table 5: NSER 2010-2011: Age ratio score by province/territory………………………… 18 Table 6: NSER 2010-2011 Mean age of the population by province/territory…………… 21 Table 7: NSER 2010-2011: Household size, type and headship…………………………. 23 Table 8: NSER 2010-2011: Proportion ever married by age, sex and province/territory. 23 List of Figures Figure 1: Age-sex structure of the population by province/territory in NSER 2010-2011 2010……………………………………………………………... 15 Figure 2: Pakistan: Preference for digits in NSER 2010-2011 according to Myers’ Blended Index by sex………………………………………………………………. 17 Figure 3: NSER 2010-2011: Sex ratios………………………………………………………. 20 Figure 4: NSER 2010-2011: Dependency rates and mean poverty score by province/territories………………………………………………………………...… 22 3 Population Dynamics 4 Population Dynamics 1. Introduction A changing population structure has serious implications for a country’s socio-economic milieu. The best way to gauge these changes is through the periodically conducted national censuses which give a precise image of the state of population in a country. In Pakistan, however, conduction of censuses has been irregular and infrequent with the last being held some 16 years back in 1998. The National Socio-Economic Registry (NSER), based on the Benazir Income Support Programme’s (BISP) Poverty Score Survey (PSS) conducted in 2010, being a census covering over 27 million households, gives us an ideal opportunity to know and understand the population dynamics of Pakistan. Population dynamics include many factors including changes in the: size of the population in absolute number and rate of growth; age-sex structure of the population; average size of household; movement of people from one place to another; occupation distribution of the employed labour force; size of urban and rural population; wealth status of the inhabitants; and family structure. The NSER 2010-2011 is helpful in measuring many of these dynamics and the present paper aims to look at these, and some other related factors, using the survey data. The BISP survey data would be used in the present paper to understand population dynamics in Pakistan at the national, provincial and district level and wherever possible compare these with the trends in the past. The census of 1998 and other credible surveys would be used for the sake of getting some historical sense of the trends found in the present study using the NSER 2010-2011. Based on the data that could be extracted from the BISP survey, the present paper aims to look into the: population composition by region; age structure of the population and gauge the quality of the age reporting in the NSER 2010-2011; sex structure of the population; size of population of children and women in reproductive ages as they have specialised needs to be taken care of; family structure and pattern of household headship prevalent in the country; and marital status of the population. After this introductory section the paper has four more sections. Section two deals with a brief description of why it is imperative to understand population dynamics and the way they are linked to other factors of life. Section three details the methodology employed in this paper to achieve the objectives set forth in this paper. Section four talks about the population dynamics in the areas demarcated in the objectives of the study, including various aspects of age-sex composition, marital status of the population and family and household structure. The last section presents the conclusions derived from the study, and their implications for BISP. 5 Population Dynamics 6 Population Dynamics 2. Importance of Understanding Population Dynamics in Literature Pakistan’s population has grown rapidly. Besides the sheer numbers that are hard to manage on their own, the evolving demographic scenario in the country with changing composition of young and old, and differential regional trends of fertility, mortality, morbidity, growth and migration ask for clear understanding of the population dynamics. The fact that population dynamics form the subject area of so many cross-cutting disciplines, including demography, anthropology, human geography, economics, genetics, sociology, ecology and biology, underscores the importance linked to its understanding [Macbeth and Collinson (2002)]. Population dynamics play a pivotal role in determining the potential for economic development. The notion of ‘demographic dividend1’ stems from this very idea of population dynamics, where the stress is not just on the population size but on its composition. While population dynamics carry many opportunities it is not without challenges either. If the dynamics through urbanisation create economies of scale and increase in the number of youths create more labour it is at the same time a challenge to make use of these opportunities. Understanding population dynamics is, therefore, essential for all kinds of policymaking, be it related to health, education or labour. As the UNFPA (2012) very rightly claims that, “…. none of the greatest challenges of our time can be resolved without attention to population dynamics”. Population dynamics are particularly important in the context of comprehending inequalities. While fertility and mortality rates are declining but they are not doing so equally for everyone. Poor continue to have high fertility, morbidity and mortality rates which in most cases become a source of trapping them in the vicious cycle of poverty [Edwards (2002); Maloney (2009); Rodgers (1984)]. There is geo-demography to be taken into account too as these demographic trends also show geographic patterns as they are spatially concentrated. It is for this reason that the present study looks into the demographic trends at the district level as well. While there is concern about addressing the need of the young population vis-à-vis education and employment but ageing is another major consequence of demographic transition. With increasing longevity, the number of elderly is increasing in the world and Pakistan is no exception. The ageing population has vast implications for social security, geriatric healthcare and protection of their rights as a citizen of state. With changing family structures and reduced family support the care of the elderly is a major task, especially in 1 “The demographic dividend can be defined as the potential economic benefit offered by changes in the age structure of the population, during the demographic transition, when there is an increase in working age population and an associated decline in the dependent age population………. This relation is summarised in the lifecycle income and consumption model. As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working age population is increasing in most developing countries, offering a window of opportunity to these countries, referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’ [Nayab (2008)]. 7 Population Dynamics countries like Pakistan where the public social protection system is far from universal if not almost non-existent. More than half of the world population already lives in urban areas and with time urbanisation is bound to increase [ESCAP (2011)]. Pakistan is already the most urbanised country in the South Asian region. With increased urbanisation comes the need to plan for improved access to education, health, housing, transport, communication and most importantly employment. Linked to this trend of urbanisation is the impact of population pressures on ecology (Rogers 2010). Population dynamics are also associated with environmental degradation and it is the poorest segments of the population who suffer the