Republic of Angola Ministry of Energy and Water Affairs The Project for Power Development Master Plan in the Republic of Angola Final Report December 2018 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd.(TEPSCO) IL International Institute of Electric Power, Ltd.(IIEP) JR 18-081 The Project for Power Development Master Plan in the Republic of Angola Final Report 【Table of Contents】 Chapter 1 Outline of the Survey .............................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Background of Survey ........................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Purpose of the Survey ......................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2.1 Purpose ................................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2.2 Implementing Organizations of the Partner Country.............................................................. 1-2 1.3 Activities ............................................................................................................................ 1-2 Chapter 2 Review of the Current Situation in the Power Sector .............................. 2-1 2.1 Location of Angola ............................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 Country overview ............................................................................................................... 2-2 2.2.1 Social situation ....................................................................................................................... 2-2 2.2.2 Economic condition ................................................................................................................ 2-2 2.3 Review of the current status of the power sector structure ................................................. 2-4 2.3.1 Electricity Sector Transformation Program (PTSE) ............................................................... 2-4 2.3.2 Power sector organization after sector reform ........................................................................ 2-4 2.4 Review of the current power demand and supply ............................................................ 2-10 2.4.1 Demand status ...................................................................................................................... 2-10 2.4.2 Power supply status .............................................................................................................. 2-11 2.5 Review of cooperation by donors and activities by the private sector ............................. 2-12 2.5.1 Cooperation by donors ......................................................................................................... 2-12 2.5.2 Activity by the private sector ............................................................................................... 2-12 2.6 Review of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) relating to the power sector in Angola ............................................................................................... 2-13 2.7 Some issues faced by the Angola power sector ................................................................ 2-15 2.7.1 Issues in term of the organization ......................................................................................... 2-15 2.7.2 Issues related to electric power system................................................................................. 2-15 2.7.3 Issues in terms of power policy ............................................................................................ 2-16 Chapter 3 Primary Energy Analysis for Power Development .................................. 3-1 3.1 General energy condition in Angola................................................................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Primary energy flow analysis ................................................................................................. 3-1 3.2 The potential of primary energy ......................................................................................... 3-5 3.2.1 Large hydropower .................................................................................................................. 3-5 3.2.2 Oil ........................................................................................................................................... 3-8 3.2.3 Natural gas ............................................................................................................................ 3-10 3.2.4 Renewable energy ................................................................................................................ 3-10 3.2.5 Coal ...................................................................................................................................... 3-15 i The Project for Power Development Master Plan in the Republic of Angola Final Report 3.3 Condition of energy supply facilities ............................................................................... 3-16 3.3.1 Liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant ....................................................................................... 3-16 3.3.2 Oil refinery plant .................................................................................................................. 3-16 3.4 Price trends for each form of primary energy .................................................................. 3-17 3.4.1 Crude oil ............................................................................................................................... 3-18 3.4.2 Natural gas ............................................................................................................................ 3-18 3.4.3 Selected fuel price for formulating the “Optimal Generation Mix” ..................................... 3-19 3.5 Items to Prepare to Promote Power Development ........................................................... 3-20 3.5.1 Options for Power Supply .................................................................................................... 3-20 3.5.2 Options for Fuel, and Fuel Characteristics ........................................................................... 3-20 3.5.3 Setting of Thermal Power Generation Planning Scenarios and Selection of Fuel ............... 3-21 3.5.4 Facilities to Prepare for Power Development Promotion ..................................................... 3-24 Chapter 4 Procedure for Formulating a Power Master Plan based on the Optimal Generation Mix (“The Best Mix”) ........................................................... 4-1 4.1 Basic policy for an optimal generation mix ....................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Items to examine ................................................................................................................ 4-1 4.2.1 Economic matters ................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2.2 Supply reliability .................................................................................................................... 4-4 4.2.3 Energy security ....................................................................................................................... 4-6 4.2.4 Environmental and social considerations ............................................................................... 4-7 4.3 Flow for formulating a power development master plan ................................................... 4-8 Chapter 5 Power Demand Forecast ........................................................................ 5-1 5.1 Power demand forecast in current plan and related data .................................................... 5-1 5.1.1 Current power demand forecast .............................................................................................. 5-1 5.1.2 Forecast of GDP and population growth ................................................................................ 5-2 5.1.3 Relevance and problems of the current power demand forecast ............................................ 5-5 5.2 Power Demand Results and Regional Characteristics ........................................................ 5-6 5.2.1 Power Demand Results........................................................................................................... 5-6 5.2.2 Regional characteristics of power demand ............................................................................. 5-9 5.3 Power demand forecast up to 2040 .................................................................................. 5-10 5.3.1 Power demand forecasting methodology ............................................................................. 5-10 5.3.2 Annual maximum power demand forecast ........................................................................... 5-10 5.3.3 Daily load curve forecast ...................................................................................................... 5-13 5.3.4 Annual generated energy demand forecast ........................................................................... 5-18 5.3.5 Macro-evaluation of power demand forecast ....................................................................... 5-19 Chapter 6 Optimization of the Generation Development Plan ................................. 6-1 ii The Project