CHINA’S ADVANCED WEAPONS HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2017 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2017 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, CHAIRMAN HON. DENNIS C. SHEA, VICE CHAIRMAN Commissioners: ROBIN CLEVEALND HON. JONATHAN N. STIVERS HON. BYRON L. DORGAN HON. JAMES TALENT HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN DR. KATHERINE C. TOBIN DR. GLENN HUBBARD MICHAEL R. WESSEL DANIEL M. SLANE DR. LARRY M. WORTZEL MICHAEL R. DANIS, Executive Director The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the “Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003,” Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109- 108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law Nol. 110-161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December); as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, P.L. 113-291 (December 19, 2014) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission). The Commission’s full charter is available at www.uscc.gov. March 27, 2017 The Honorable Orrin Hatch President Pro Tempore of the Senate, Washington, DC 20510 The Honorable Paul Ryan Speaker of the House of Representatives, Washington, DC 20515 DEAR SENATOR HATCH AND SPEAKER RYAN: We are pleased to transmit the record of our February 23, 2017 public hearing on “China’s Advanced Weapons.” The Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Pub. L. No. 106-398 (as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015 § 1259b, Pub. L. No. 113-291) provides the basis for this hearing. At the hearing, the Commissioners heard from the following witnesses: James Acton, Co- Director and Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Andrew Erickson, Professor, China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College; Mark Stokes, Executive Director, Project 2049 Institute; David Chen, Independent Analyst; Richard Fisher, Senior Fellow, International Assessment and Strategy Center; Timothy Grayson, President, Fortitude Mission Research, LLC; Todd Harrison, Director and Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Elsa Kania, Analyst, Long Term Strategy Group; and Kevin Pollpeter, Research Scientist, CNA. The subjects covered included the military technologies China is considering or pursuing at the global technological frontier, its ability to develop innovative technologies going forward, and the implications of these efforts for the United States. It specifically examined China’s development of hypersonic, maneuverable re-entry vehicle, directed energy, electromagnetic-powered, other counterspace, unmanned, and artificial intelligence-enabled systems. We note that the full transcript of the hearing will be posted to the Commission’s website when completed. The prepared statements and supporting documents submitted by the participants are now posted on the Commission’s website at www.uscc.gov. Members and the staff of the Commission are available to provide more detailed briefings. We hope these materials will be helpful to the Congress as it continues its assessment of U.S.-China relations and their impact on U.S. security. The Commission will examine in greater depth these issues, and the other issues enumerated in its statutory mandate, in its 2017 Annual Report that will be submitted to Congress in November 2017. Should you have any questions regarding this hearing or any other issue related to China, please do not hesitate to have your staff contact our Congressional Liaison, Leslie Tisdale, at 202-624-1496 or [email protected]. Sincerely yours, Carolyn Bartholomew Hon. Dennis C. Shea Chairman Vice Chairman cc: Members of Congress and Congressional Staff CONTENTS THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2017 CHINA’S ADVANCED WEAPONS Opening Statement of Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................1 Prepared Statement ...........................................................................................................3 Opening Statement of Commissioner James Talent (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................5 Prepared Statement ...........................................................................................................6 Panel I: China’s Hypersonic and Maneuverable Re-Entry Vehicle Programs Panel I Introduction by Commissioner James Talent (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................8 Statement of James Acton Co-Director of Nuclear Policy Program and Senior Fellow Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ..................................................................9 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................11 Statement of Andrew S. Erickson Professor of Strategy China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College ...........................................20 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................22 Statement of Mark Stokes Executive Director, Project 2049 Institute .....................................................................35 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................38 Panel I: Question and Answer............................................................................................43 Panel II: China’s Directed Energy and Electromagnetic Weapons Programs Panel II Introduction by Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................58 Statement of Timothy Grayson President, Fortitude Mission Research, LLC .................................................................59 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................62 Statement of David D. Chen Independent Analyst .......................................................................................................75 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................78 Statement of Richard Fisher Senior Fellow, Asian Military Affairs International Assessment and Strategy Center ...............................................................85 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................88 Panel II: Question and Answer ........................................................................................106 Panel III: China’s Counterspace, Unmanned, and Artificial Intelligence Weapons Programs Panel III Introduction by Commissioner James Talent (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................120 Statement of Todd Harrison Director of Defense Budget Analysis, Director of the Aerospace Security Project, And Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies .............................121 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................123 Statement of Elsa Kania Analyst, Long Term Strategy Group ............................................................................129 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................132 Statement of Kevin Pollpeter Research Scientist, CNA ..............................................................................................157 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................159 Panel III: Question and Answer ......................................................................................170 1 CHINA’S ADVANCED WEAPONS THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2017 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Washington, D.C. The Commission met in Room 419 of Dirksen Senate Building, Washington, D.C. at 9:30 a.m., Commissioners Carolyn Bartholomew and James Talent (Hearing Co-Chairs), presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF CHAIRMAN CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW HEARING CO-CHAIR CHAIRMAN BARTHOLOMEW: Good morning. We will call our hearing to order