GCC Relations with Post-War Iraq: A Strategic Perspective GCC Relations with Post-War Iraq: A Strategic Perspective Edited by Omar Al-Ubaydli and Andrea Plebani Gulf Research Centre Cambridge Gulf Research Center E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.grc.net Jeddah Geneva Cambridge Gulf Research Center Gulf Research Center Gulf Research Centre 19 Rayat Al-Itehad St. Foundation Cambridge P.O. Box 2134 49, Avenue Blanc Centre of Islamic Studies Jeddah 21451 CH-1202 Geneva University of Cambridge Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Switzerland Sidgwick Avenue Cambridge CB3 9DA, UK First published 2014 Gulf Research Centre Cambridge © Gulf Research Centre Cambridge 2014 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the Gulf Research Centre Cambridge. ISBN: 978-1-909864-05-4 The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily state or reflect the opinions or position of the Gulf Research Centre Cambridge. By publishing this volume, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) seeks to contribute to the enrichment of the reader’s knowledge out of the Center’s strong conviction that ‘knowledge is for all.’ Dr. Abdulaziz O. Sager Chairman Gulf Research Center About the Gulf Research Center The Gulf Research Center (GRC) is an independent research institute founded in July 2000 by Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, a Saudi businessman, who realized, in a world of rapid political, social and economic change, the importance of pursuing politically neutral and academically sound research about the Gulf region and disseminating the knowledge obtained as widely as possible. The Center is a non-partisan think-tank, education service provider and consultancy specializing in the Gulf region. The GRC seeks to provide a better understanding of the challenges and prospects of the Gulf region. Contents Preface ...............................................................................................................11 Introduction ......................................................................................................13 1. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait: Post-2003 Challenges and Opportunities for the Iraqi Federal Architecture ................................................................15 Andrea Plebani 2. Iraq and the Security Situation in the Gulf Region: Advantage or Threat? ...................................................................................37 Ashraf Mohammed Kishk 3. Iraq-GCC Relations in the New Middle East: Closing the Political Gap ...........................................................................59 Fatin Shabbar 4. Confronting Threats from Iran through Proactive Cooperation with Iraq: “Objective Necessity” for the GCC .............................................................79 Metodi Hadji Janev 5. GCC and Post-War Iraq Relations: Issues of Stability and Conflicting Interests .......................................................................................................97 Abderraouf El Ouazzani Taibi 6. China as a Factor in the Emerging GCC-Iraq Relations: The Predominance of Oil ..........................................................................115 Sanju Gupta 7. The Strategic Evolution of US Military Presence in Iraq ..........................137 Degang Sun 8. Arabism, Nationalism, and Islamism in Iraq: A Few Scenarios for the Future .................................................................157 Yacoob Abba Omar 9. Religious Use of Social Media in the Gulf and Iraq ..................................179 Safa Mubgar About the Contributors ..................................................................................191 GRC Publications ...........................................................................................197 Introduction Preface The nine chapters in this volume were originally contributions to the 2013 Gulf Research Meeting workshop entitled “GCC Relations with Post-War Iraq: A Strategic Perspective.” In light of the workshop’s quality papers and lively discussions, we were very pleased when the Gulf Research Center offered us the opportunity to produce this volume. During the editing process, we favored a hands-off editing style: our goal was to make the volume a forum where each author could put forward arguments and views directly to the reader with minimal interference from intermediaries. Beyond copy-editing support provided by GRC, our suggestions focused on ensuring that typical academic standards were maintained, specifically those pertaining to correct referencing and well-articulated arguments. This was particularly important in light of the often controversial nature of some of the key issues discussed. We also insisted that in place of conventional abstracts to summarize the papers, the authors should provide two sets of key strategic recommendations that flow from their paper: one directed at GCC policymakers and the other directed at Iraqi policymakers. The aim here was to maximize the value of the volume to arguably the most important component of the target audience: senior policymakers in the GCC and Iraq. In light of our relatively laissez-faire editing style, the reader should be aware that the editors do not necessarily agree with the claims and arguments put forward by the authors in the volume. We see this as a strength of the volume, as a key Gulf Research Centre Cambridge 11 GCC Relations with Post-War Iraq: A Strategic Perspective goal of the workshop was to gather a diverse range of well-researched opinions on what is manifestly a topic of considerable importance. As should be apparent from the author bios, the diversity is at least partially the result of the diversity in backgrounds, with a variety of disciplines and geographical locales represented in the author lineup. In addition to the authors, we would like to thank the following people for helping us realize the workshop and the volume (in alphabetical order): Muhammad Abdulghaffar, Khalid Al-Ruwaihi, Elsa Courdier, Christian Koch, Radhika Menon, Abdulaziz Sager, Bashir Zain AlAbdin, and colleagues at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies. We would also like to thank the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies for sponsoring the workshop, and the Gulf Research Center for organizing it and for publishing this volume. 12 Gulf Research Centre Cambridge Introduction Introduction The papers in this volume examine the history and future of the often fractious relationship between Iraq and the GCC countries. The backdrop is the US dominance of security arrangements in the Gulf region for most of the post-war period. Prior to the new millennium, the region’s major security threat was perceived to be the mounting rivalry between the GCC-US camp on the one hand and the Iranian camp on the other. Some semblance of equilibrium had been achieved through the late 1990s, but the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 created new fault lines. In the invasion’s aftermath, regional peace was maintained by the overwhelming presence of US troops both in Iraq and in the GCC more generally. There is a broad consensus among the contributions in this volume that a state of disequilibrium emerged in the wake of the 2011 withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. The contributions are also in agreement over the need for a more inclusive and multilateral approach to regional security, and for any such approach to be spearheaded by the region’s principle stakeholders, i.e., Iraq, Iran and the GCC countries. This is partly out of necessity, since the global recession has affected the US ability to unilaterally enforce security in the region, and there are major doubts over the effectiveness of soft military units as a replacement for a hard military presence; and partly because the new socio-political forces unleashed by US military activity and the Arab Spring have altered the previous dynamics and denuded the suitability of the prevailing security arrangement. Gulf Research Centre Cambridge 13 GCC Relations with Post-War Iraq: A Strategic Perspective The contributions show much more discord over the precise nature of a potentially successful new common security strategy. Among the areas of contention is the extent of Iranian influence in Iraq: those perceiving it to be large regard it as a driver of regional sectarian polarization and therefore a barrier to the emergence of a common security strategy, while those dismissing it regard Iraq as a potential bridge between the GCC and Iranian camps. A closer examination of the process of constructing Iraq’s federal architecture post-2003 demonstrates the oft- underestimated complexity of Iraq’s ethno-sectarian composition and the subtlety required to forge lasting and productive relations between the GCC countries and Iraq. Certainly there remains much controversy over what Iraqi policies that reflect “the will of the Iraqi people”- a particularly nebulous concept - might look like. Frequent reference is made to the rising tide of sectarianism in the GCC countries themselves and how this has impeded the emergence of successful regional security cooperation. The Arab Spring and the advancing medium of the Internet have combined to open the political arena for previous depoliticized religious clerics, while raising the ceiling and widening the horizons (nationally and internationally) for those who were already