AN EVALUATION OF THE THEORY AND THE PRACTICE OF TERRORIST PROFILING IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF TERRORIST CHARACTERISTICS By NOEL KEVIN MCGUIRK A thesis submitted to the University of Birmingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Birmingham Law School College of Arts and Law University of Birmingham August 2018 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. ABSTRACT A key trend in laws and policies aimed at combatting terrorism is the increasing use of policing strategies that allow law enforcement officers anticipate risk so that they can engage in preventing, interrupting and prosecuting those suspected of terrorism offences before their commission. One such pre-emptive policing strategy is the use of terrorist profiling. The rationale underpinning terrorist profiling is to allow law enforcement officers identify those likely to involved in terrorism or its associated activities so that law enforcement officers can prevent, interrupt and prosecute suspects before an act of terrorism. The use of terrorist profiling is highly controversial given that its use has been perceived as being unlawful. Previous attempts to analyse terrorist profiling has tended to rely solely on human rights law as the analytical lens to evaluate the usefulness and lawfulness of terrorist profiling. The discussion in this thesis argues that the effectiveness and usefulness of terrorist profiling should only be undertaken by deconstructing the profiling process so as to allow a thorough examination of the phenomenon of terrorist profiling. As a result, the discussion in this thesis establishes two analytical lenses as the basis to systematically examine terrorist profiling. Firstly, the discussion develops an effectiveness framework that examines the construction of terrorist profiles separately from the application of terrorist profiles. Secondly, the discussion also draws upon criminal profiling methodologies and approaches as the basis to evaluate different manifestations of terrorist profiling. These analytical lenses are used to conduct a taxonomy on different manifestations of terrorist profiling so as to systematically evaluate their usefulness as a law enforcement tool to predict likely terrorist characteristics. In memory of a loving Dad, thanks for the guidance, support and wisdom that has made me the person I am today. Ar dheis Dé go raibh a anam. And to a loving mother for always being there for me. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am eternally grateful to Dr Adrian Hunt for supervising my research. I would like to sincerely thank you for your dedication, diligence, expert wisdom, support, patience, encouragement and not least your honesty over the course of my PhD studies. Thank you. I would also like to thank The College of Arts and Law and Birmingham Law School for funding this thesis through the Postgraduate Teaching Assistant programme. It would not have been possible to complete this research without this funding. Thank you. I would also like to thank Professor Richard Young and Dr Marianne Wade for their very helpful comments provided in my conversion document. This feedback provided great assistance in developing my thesis. I would also like to thank Dr Lawrence McNamara for encouraging me and instilling in me the confidence to undertake a PhD research project. Finally, I would like to thank my family and especially Ian who has supported me without question. CONTENTS Table of Cases…………………………………………………………………..……vii Table of Legislation…………………………………………………………………..ix List of Figures and Tables………………………………………………………..….xii Chapter 1: Introduction………………………………………………………………..1 1.1 Research Background and Context……………………..……………..1 1.2 Terrorism and Profiling – a definitional problem…….………….……3 1.3 Thesis Aim…………..………………………………………………...7 1.4 Thesis Outline……….………………………………….…………...11 1.5 Contribution to Knowledge……………………………………….... .17 1.6 Research Limitations……………………………………………..…..22 1.7 Assessing/Measuring the Effectiveness of Terrorist Profiling…...…..23 1.7.1 Research Approaches in Examining the Effectiveness of Counter-Terrorism Policies……………………..………...24 1.7.2 The use of quantitative approaches in assessing effectiveness……………………………...…….….25 1.7.3 The use of qualitative approaches in assessing effectiveness……………………………………….28 1.7.4 Summary……………………………………………………..30 1.8 An Analytical Framework to Assess/Measure the Effectiveness of Terrorist Profiling……..……………………..……………………….31 1.8.1 Output Effectiveness – Construction of Terrorist Profiles…...33 1.8.2 Outcome Effectiveness – Application of Terrorist Profiles….34 i 1.8.3 Impact Effectiveness – The Consequences of Terrorist Profiling……………………………………………36 1.8.4 Measuring Effectiveness……………………………………..38 Chapter 2: Criminal profiling and its Applicability to Terrorist Profiling …………..39 2.1 Introduction…………..………………………………………………39 2.2 Deductive Profiling…………..………………………………………42 2.2.1 The Origins of Profiling………………..…………….. 43 2.2.2 Non-Scientific Deductive Profiling Approaches……………………..…………………….44 2.2.3 Non-Scientific Deductive Profiling Approaches – A Critique……………………………..51 2.2.4 Scientific Deductive Profiling Approaches…………..57 2.2.5 Scientific Deductive Profiling Approaches – A Critique……………………...………....................…..61 2.2.6 The Applicability of Deductive Profiling Approaches to Terrorism……………………………..63 2.3 Inductive Profiling………………………………………………………..66 2.3.1 Introduction…………………………………………..66 2.3.2 Actuarial Prediction and Criminal Justice……………68 2.3.3 Inductive Profiling Methods – The Computation of an Inductive Argument……………………………70 2.3.4 Inductive Profiling – A Critique……………………..72 2.3.5 Inductive Profiling and its applicability to Terrorism……….……….…………82 ii 2.3.5.1 Inductive Profiling and Terrorism Records………………….……84 2.3.5.2 Inductive Profiling and the Overlapping Nature of Terrorist Crimes…………………...87 2.3.5.3 Inductive Profiling and the Size of Terrorism Record Samples…………………...87 2.3.5.4 Terrorism Records and the Accurate Recording of Information…………………….89 2.3.5.5 Conclusion: Inductive Terrorist Profiling and Other Issues………………………...……90 3.0 Conclusion….………………………………………………………..91 Chapter 3: Formal Terrorist Profiling: The Construction and Application of Terrorist Profiles……………………………………………………...……………………….97 3.1 Introduction…………………………………………………..…..….97 3.2 Knowledge Discovery Processes and Data Mining…………….…..100 3.2.1 Introduction……………………………………………...……100 3.2.2 The Construction of Profiles using Knowledge Discovery Processes and Data Mining……….…….…101 3.2.3 Knowledge Discovery Processes and Data Mining – Summary…………………………………107 3.2.4 The Evaluation of Knowledge Discovery Processes and Data Mining Approaches in light of Established Profiling Methods…………………………………………………....107 3.3 The Application of Knowledge Discovery Processes and Data Mining by Law Enforcement Officers……………...…………110 iii 3.3.1 The Application of Knowledge Discovery Processes and Data Mining Approaches in Germany……………………………111 3.3.2 The Application of Knowledge Discovery Processes and Data Mining Approaches in the US………………………………119 3.3.2.1 Knowledge Discovery Processes in Financial Transactions…………….…………..………....122 3.3.2.2 Knowledge Discovery Processes at Ports…………..126 3.3.2.3 General Knowledge Discovery Processes – The Total Information Awareness Scheme…..……..131 3.3.2.4 Knowledge Discovery Processes in the US – Summary.…………………133 3.4 An Evaluation of Knowledge Discovery Processes in the Context of Terrorism…………………………………….…134 3.4.1 Assessing/Measuring the Effectiveness of Terrorist profiling……………………………………………………..135 3.4.2 The Input Assessment of the Effectiveness of Constructing Formal Terrorist Profiles……………………………………136 3.4.3 The Output Assessment of the Effectiveness of the Application of Formal Terrorist Profiles……..…………………………..142 3.4.4 The Impact of Formal Terrorist Profiling Methods………...144 3.5 Conclusion………………………………………………………………148 Chapter 4: Behavioural Profiling: The Construction and Application of Behavioural Profiles in the Context of Terrorism……………………………………………..…152 4.1 Introduction………..………………………………………………..152 4.2 The Construction of Behavioural Profiles……..……………………154 iv 4.2.1 The Categorisation of Behavioural Profiling…….…………155 4.2.2 The Behavioural Profiling Methods/Approaches……...……159 4.2.3 An Evaluation of Behavioural Profiling Methods/Approaches……..…………………………………163 4.3 The Application of Behavioural Profiling Approaches in the Context of Terrorism…………………………………………169 4.3.1 The Application of Behavioural Profiling in Israel………………………………………………………...170 4.3.2 An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Behavioural Terrorist Profiling in Israel…………...……………………………………………176 4.3.3 The application of behavioural profiling in the US………...181 4.3.4 An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Behavioural Terrorist Profiling in the US………………………………………….185 4.4 Conclusion……………………………………………………………..……191 Chapter 5: An Examination of Manifestations of Informal Terrorist Profiling…….196 5.1 Introduction…………..……………………………………………………..196 5.2 Stop and Search in England and Wales……………………………..………199 5.2.1