EXERCISE SCENARIO DOCUMENT Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami January 2015 Functional Exercise 2016 Table of Contents Foreword 5 Background 6 Exercise Facts and Assumptions 6 Disclaimer 6 Methodology 7 Cascadia Region Overview 10 Cascadia Subduction Zone 11 Anatomy of a Cascadia Zone Earthquake 12 Shaking Intensity 13 The Tsunami 16 Aftershocks 17 Landslides and Liquefaction 18 Future Risk 20 Tsunami Impacts 22 Washington: Tsunami Impacts 23 Oregon: Tsunami Impacts 27 Population Impacts 30 Injuries 32 Fatalities 34 Washington: Injuries and Fatalities 35 Oregon: Injuries and Fatalities 36 Transportation Systems 37 Roads 38 Washington: Roads 41 Oregon: Roads 43 1 Table of Contents Road Bridges 45 Washington: Road Bridges 48 Seattle Metro: Roads and Bridges 52 Oregon: Road Bridges 55 Portland Metro: Roads and Bridges 59 Air Transportation 62 Washington: Air Transportation 64 Oregon: Air Transportation 66 Rail Transportation Systems 68 Washington: Rail Transportation 70 Oregon: Rail Transportation 73 Seaports 76 Washington: Seaports 81 Oregon: Seaports 84 Water Resource Infrastructure 86 Dams and Levees 87 Electric Power Systems 88 Washington: Electric Power 90 Oregon: Electric Power 93 Natural Gas Systems 96 Washington: Natural Gas Systems 97 Oregon: Natural Gas Systems 99 Refined Fuel Systems 101 Washington: Refined Fuel Systems 103 2 Table of Contents Oregon: Refined Fuel Systems 105 Critical Public Safety Facilities 107 Emergency Operation Centers 109 Public Safety Answering Points (PSAPs) 109 Fire Stations 110 Washington: Fire Stations 111 Oregon: Fire Stations 112 Police Stations, Supporting Infrastructure, Law Enforcement and Corrections Personnel 119 Washington: Law Enforcement 120 Oregon: Law Enforcement 124 Hospitals 128 Washington: Hospitals 129 Oregon: Hospitals 133 Schools 137 Washington: Schools 139 Oregon: Schools 143 Water and Wastewater Treatment Facilities 147 Washington: Water and Wastewater Treatment Facilities 150 Oregon: Water and Wastewater Treatment Facilities 154 Hazardous Materials Facilities 158 Washington: Hazardous Materials Facilities 159 Oregon: Hazardous Materials Facilities 162 Communications Systems 165 Washington and Oregon: Long-Haul Fiber Optic Cables 167 3 Table of Contents Washington: Communications Systems 168 Oregon: Communications Systems 171 Buildings 174 Washington: Residential Buildings 176 Oregon: Residential Buildings 177 Shelters 178 Appendix A: Report Contributors 179 Appendix B: Refernece Materials 180 4 Foreword A large magnitude Cascadia Subduction Zone fault earthquake and tsunami is perhaps one of the most complex disaster scenarios that we face as emergency management and public safety officials in the Pacific Northwest. Due to this complexity, life-saving and life-sustaining response operations will hinge on the effective coordination and integration of governments at all levels – cities, counties, state agencies, federal departments, the military, and tribal nations – as well as non-governmental organizations and the private sector. It is this joint-operational whole community approach that we seek to enhance and test during the Cascading Rising exercise. Our sincere appreciation to the Western Washington University Resilience Institute and the members of the exercise Scenario Sub-Working Group for developing this foundational Exercise Scenario document. We look forward to commencing the design and preparations of the Cascadia Rising exercise, as we work together to improve our joint operational readiness to serve the citizens and the region that we all cherish. Respectfully, The Washington and Oregon Whole Community Exercise Design Committee January 2015 5 Background Cascadia Rising is a four day Functional Exercise occurring the week of June 6, 2016. Participat- ing Emergency Operation and Exercise Facts Coordination Centers (EOC/ ECCs) at all levels of government and Assumptions and the private sector in Wash- ington and Oregon will activate to coordinate simulated field response operations, both within their jurisdictions and also with In order to achieve the joint ob- neighboring communities, the jectives of the exercise, the follow- State EOCs, FEMA, and major ing exercise facts and assumptions military commands. should be used by both exercise planners and players in the con- The purpose of this scenario pub- duct of the exercise: lication is two-fold: (1) to provide Disclaimer information for exercise partic- • Real-world weather will be in ipants on the potential impacts effect during each day of the resulting from a large magnitude exercise. Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) The estimates of earthquake im- earthquake and tsunami, pre- • Emergency Operation and Co- pacts presented in this publication paring exercise players for some ordination Centers (EOC/ECCs) were produced using loss estima- of the challenges they may face are structurally sound and capable tion modeling software based on during the exercise; and, (2) to of facilitating operations (unless current scientific and engineering provide exercise planner “trusted otherwise determined by individ- knowledge. There are uncertain- agents” with information on CSZ ual communities). ties inherent in any loss estimation damages, assisting them in the technique. Therefore, there may preparation of various exercise • A sufficient number of staff will be notable differences between design products to include in a be able to reach respective EOC/ the modeled results contained in “Ground Truth” document and ECCs to initiate and sustain this publication and other earth- the “Master Scenario Events List.” operations (unless otherwise quake and tsunami loss models/ determined by individual commu- studies. The information in this nities) report is not predictive; there may be significant differences between the modeled results in this publi- cation and actual losses following a real-world Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake and tsunami. 6 Methodology Data taken from several reports This Scenario Document also By using a worst case scenario and studies were compiled to draws from the FEMA Region model, it accounts for some of the develop this Cascadia Rising 10 Response Plan that developed potential compounding effects of Exercise Scenario Document. out of a multi-year, multiregion- aftershocks and landslide impacts The Analytical Baseline Study al planning process based upon that are not well-captured by the for the Cascadia Earthquake and the HITRAC baseline study. The HAZUS-MH 2.0 tool. Thus, the Tsunami, a 2011 study commis- sections here on geology, tsuna- damage estimates outlined in this sioned by FEMA Region 10 and mi generation and generalized report should be considered as conducted by the National Infra- building damage also draw di- potentially less than the 90th per- structure Simulation and Analysis rectly from CREW’s description centile of the scenario event and Center Homeland Infrastructure of a Cascadia Subduction Zone all subsequent secondary events Threat and Risk Analysis Center earthquake and tsunami in their that are likely to occur following (HITRAC) within the DHS Of- 2013 updated scenario report. the modeled Cascadia Subduction fice of Infrastructure Protection, Oregon has undergone an exten- Zone earthquake. provides a primary foundation for sive resilience planning process estimating the impacts of a Casca- and their 2013 Reducing Risk and Further, the fragility curves for dia Subduction Zone earthquake. Improving Recovery for the Next tall buildings are not well under- The HITRAC study is based upon Cascadia Earthquake and Tsuna- stood for prolonged shaking (4-6 a 9.0 magnitude earthquake along mi report added further specificity minutes). Therefore, the accuracy the length of the Cascadia Sub- and accuracy to descriptions of of structural damage modeling duction Zone fault as specified by damage in that state. Several pub- may vary by building type. How- the Cascadia Region Earthquake lished reports and ongoing studies ever, despite these limitations, the Workgroup (CREW). The study on tsunami evacuation were also HAZUS-MH 2.0 model provides assumes an epicenter approxi- used to provide better estimates the most credible estimate of mately 95 miles west of Eugene, of tsunami-related injuries and aggregate losses to date. Addi- Oregon triggers a tsunami which fatalities. tional damage data from actual impacts not only the West Coast, earthquakes will improve future but the entire Pacific Basin. Loss estimation does not provide HAZUS-MH models. To understand potential losses definitive results. Rather, estima- caused by this large earthquake, tions are couched in probabilities Damage estimates in this Scenario HITRAC used FEMA’s HAZUS- of infrastructure experiencing a Document are provided for the MH 2.0 Multi-hazard Loss set of specified damage states. The purposes of the Cascadia Rising Estimation Methodology tool. narrative for this Cascadia Ris- functional exercise, based upon The tool considered the effects of ing exercise relies upon the 90th modeling of a seismic event of a ground shaking, liquefaction, and percentile damage – the damage particular magnitude, location potential landslides on communi- state with only a 10 percent esti- and faulting mechanism. They ties and their built environment. mated chance of being exceeded. should not be read as a definitive 7 Methodology (cont.) statement of likely damages from damage is likely to have only deg- of damage for each corresponding any one of many possible Cas- radation of functionality. Much damage