International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) ISSN (Online): 2319-7064 Index Copernicus Value (2013): 6.14 | Impact Factor (2013): 4.438 The Future of Humanity and Microbes: Impact of Emerging Infectious Diseases on Global Health and Economies Tabish SA1, Nabil Syed2 1Professor, FRCP, FACP, FAMS, FRCPE, MHA (AIIMS), Postdoctoral Fellowship, University of Bristol (England), Doctorate in Educational Leadership (USA); Sher-i-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences, Srinagar 2MA, Kings College, London Abstract: Infectious diseases have affected humans since the first recorded history of man. Infectious diseases cause increased morbidity and a loss of work productivity as a result of compromised health and disability, accounting for approximately 30% of all disability-adjusted life years globally. The world has experienced an increased incidence and transboundary spread of emerging infectious diseases due to population growth, urbanization and globalization over the past four decades. Most of these newly emerging and re-emerging pathogens are viruses, although fewer than 200 of the approximately 1400 pathogen species recognized to infect humans are viruses. On average, however, more than two new species of viruses infecting humans are reported worldwide every year most of which are likely to be RNA viruses. Establishing laboratory and epidemiological capacity at the country and regional levels is critical to minimize the impact of future emerging infectious disease epidemics. Improved surveillance and monitoring of the influenza outbreak will significantly enhance the options of how best we can manage outreach to both treat as well as prevent spread of the virus. To develop and establish an effective national public health capacity to support infectious disease surveillance, outbreak investigation and early response, a good understanding of the concepts of emerging infectious diseases and an integrated public health surveillance system in accordance with the nature and type of emerging pathogens, especially novel ones is essential. There are important tools with which to fight outbreaks: a clear case definition, an aware health care system, and an informed public. The influenza outbreak in India should be further researched to determine the virulence and potential threat of the virus. Real-time surveillance, getting organized, and depositing these sequences, can help in planning a better strategy to respond to the virus. Keywords: infectious diseases, emerging infection, microbes, global health, seasonal influenza, public health surveillance system, H1N1 Virus, HIV / AIDS, ebola, hepatitis C, mers-coV, zoonotic pathogens, cost of human economic development, burden of disease, mutation 1. Introduction increasing number of people moving across the world, overcrowding in cities resulting in poor sanitation and the 1 Humans have lived with emerging and re-emerging increased exposure of people to disease causing agents. pathogens since before the dawn of civilization. The situation is worse now than in past decades or centuries Modern civilization dates from approximately 10,000 BC. because there are billions more of us and some of our It took until 1830 for the world population to reach 1 activities allow such infections to appear and flourish. billion persons; however, from there the world population Moreover, our mobility within and between countries is doubled in the next 100 years and reached 6 billion 70 conducive to the rapid spread of microorganisms. Similar years after that. By the end of 21st century the world observations hold true for animals and plants, with population could be between 14 and 18 billion. frequent consequences for human health. Emergent infection is recognized as a global threat. At least 17 In the global human population, the emergence of over million die annually from infectious diseases. Of these, the 335 infectious diseases between 1940 and 2014 has been South-east Asia Region accounts for almost 41 per cent, or reported. The emergence of these pathogens and their 7 million deaths. Emergent infection is recognized as a subsequent spread has caused an extremely significant 1–6 global threat. These diseases are the leading causes of impact on global health and economies . Previous death globally. According to an estimate, during the last efforts to understand patterns of EID emergence have two decades, over thirty new and highly infectious highlighted viral pathogens (especially RNA viruses) as a diseases have been identified. These include HIV/AIDS, major threat, owing to their often high rates of nucleotide Ebola, Hepatitis C, MERS-CoV, etc. In developing substitution, poor mutation error-correction ability and countries, the burden of disease caused by emerging and therefore higher capacity to adapt to new hosts, including re-emerging infectious diseases not only places a great humans. [Fig 1 a,b] strain on the already stretched health services, but also adds to the socio-economic burden of families and Every year there are around 600 million travelers. Some individuals. In South East Asia, emerging diseases include will already be carrying pathogens; others will be traveling HIV infection, cholera, tuberculosis, malaria, dengue to areas in which they will suffer unintended exposure to, hemorrhagic fever, viral hepatitis, meningitis and Japanese for them, new pathogens that, potentially, they can encephalitis. Examples of re-emerging infectious diseases introduce to their communities upon their return home. are plague and Kala-azar. The most important factors that are responsible for emergent infection include the Volume 4 Issue 4, April 2015 www.ijsr.net Paper ID: SUB153741 Licensed Under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 2427 International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) ISSN (Online): 2319-7064 Index Copernicus Value (2013): 6.14 | Impact Factor (2013): 4.438 The majority of pathogens involved in EID events are time. This rise corresponds to climate anomalies occurring bacterial or rickettsial (54.3%). This group is typically during the 1990s, adding support to hypotheses that represented by the emergence of drug-resistant bacterial climate change may drive the emergence of diseases that strains. Viral or prion pathogens constitute only 25.4% of have vectors sensitive to changes in environmental EID events. The percentage of EID events caused by other conditions such as rainfall, temperature and severe weather pathogen types is 10.7% for protozoa, 6.3% for fungi and events. EID events caused by drug-resistant microbes 3.3% for helminths. (which represent 20.9% of the EID events in our database) have significantly increased with time, controlling for The majority (60.3%) of EID events are caused by reporting effort. This is probably related to a zoonotic pathogens (those which have a non-human corresponding rise in antimicrobial drug use, particularly animal source). Moreover, 71.8% of these zoonotic EID in high-latitude developed countries.2-6 events were caused by pathogens with a wildlife origin— for example, the emergence of Nipah virus in Perak, 2. EIDs: Hidden ‘cost’ of Human Economic Malaysia and SARS in Guangdong Province, China. The Development number of EID events caused by pathogens originating in wildlife has increased significantly with time, controlling Perhaps no human activity is as conducive to emergence of for reporting effort, and they constituted 52.0% of EID infectious diseases as warfare, a human behaviour that, events in the most recent decade (1990–2000). Zoonotic measured by the number of people involved, becomes EIDs represent an increasing and very significant threat to more extensive every century. The 20th century has been global health. Vector-borne diseases are responsible for the bloodiest in history. There have been 150 wars in the 22.8% of EID events. Our analysis reveals a significant second half of the century, resulting in more than 20 rise in the number of EID events they have caused over Volume 4 Issue 4, April 2015 www.ijsr.net Paper ID: SUB153741 Licensed Under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 2428 International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) ISSN (Online): 2319-7064 Index Copernicus Value (2013): 6.14 | Impact Factor (2013): 4.438 million deaths, two-thirds of them civilians. The prospects not have encountered. HIV/AIDS, avian influenza, for less warfare are not good. Ethnic, religious, racial and monkeypox, Nipah, SARS, and Ebola are all the result, to tribal strife will be exacerbated by population growth, a greater or lesser extent, of interactions with animals that overcrowding and rivalries over increasingly depleted led to the emergence and re-emergence of deadly diseases. natural resources. Disease emergence is largely a product of anthropogenic and demographic changes, and is a Two fundamental characteristics of microbes allow them hidden ‗cost‘ of human economic development. Wildlife to circumvent our attempts to control them. Whereas host species richness is a significant predictor for the human generations occur approximately every two emergence of zoonotic EIDs with a wildlife origin, with no decades, those of microbes occur in minutes, allowing role for human population growth, latitude or rainfall. The them to rapidly replicate. Microbes also can mutate with emergence of zoonotic EIDs from non-wildlife hosts is each replication cycle. Their ability to replicate and mutate predicted by human population density, human population gives them the advantage of selectively circumventing growth, and latitude, and not by wildlife