The Tyranny of Experts: Analytic Misperception and the Rise of State-Run Biological Weapons Programs A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Brian D. Nordmann Master of Science Troy State University, 1985 Bachelor of Arts University of California, 1975 Director: Christopher J. Davis, Professor Department of Public and International Affairs Fall Semester 2008 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright: 2008 Brian D. Nordmann All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION This is dedicated to my wife, Yuphin, and my son, Ben, who reminds me daily that sometimes the question is just as important as the answer. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation is, to a large degree, the culmination of over thirty-five years of study, beginning with my very first Political Science class at the University of California in 1971, taught by Peter Sperlich. A large number of professors encouraged me on the path of exploring the question, not the answer. For this I thank Fred Stripp, Ward Tabler, Leo Lowenthal, Nelson Polsby, Jack Citrin, Leonard Nathan, Richard Lazarus, and Richard Barnhart, among many, many others. Understanding “Intelligence Analysis” both as a career as well as an academic pursuit is a central focus of this dissertation. I must acknowledge several mentors and supervisors who helped me embrace and understand the analytic process. Curt Low and Ray Firehock gave me more insight and training than I probably deserved at the time. Amy Sands, Sallie Mullen, and Gary Crocker showed me how to think and express thoughts clearly. Fred Eimer consistently challenged me to think for myself and question the “IC position.” Many others within the IC must, for professional reasons, remain nameless to this study but are deserving of my thanks and appreciation. Special acknowledgment must be given to Professor Julian Perry Robinson of the Harvard-Sussex Project for his unselfish advice and the use of his contacts to open doors for me in the “History of BW” world. His then-enigmatic tip to read the novels of John Buchan was of incalculable value to the completion of this dissertation. Victoria Shelton at the George Mason University Library who tracked down many obscure titles across the land for me deserves special mention, but I also must thank the nameless librarians at the Library of Congress, The National Archives, The National Air and Space Museum, The National Sporting Library, and Mary Washington College, all of whom took my obscure questions as their own and helped answer them for me and steered me in other directions of research. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables……………….…………………………………………………………….vi List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………... vii List of Abbreviations/Symbols…………………..……………………………………...viii Abstract................................................................................................................……….xiii Disclaimer…………………………………………….…………………………………xiv Chapter 1: Introduction……………………………………………………….. ………….1 Chapter 2: The Philosophical Debate – Why Biological Weapons?............................….11 Chapter 3: The False Dichotomy of “Dual Use” and the Banality of Evil………..….....26 Chapter 4 : Wickham Steed Fans the Embers…………………………………………....36 Chapter 5: A Military Revolution……………………………………………………..…56 Chapter 6: The Impact of Arms Control…………………………………………………73 Chapter 7: The Biological Weapons Dominoes………………………..………………..89 Chapter 8: Through the Looking Glass – The United States “Program” Today ………206 Chapter 9: Avoiding the Tyranny of Experts.………………………………………….236 Chapter 10: Conclusion……………..………………………………………………….276 Appendices 1. A Timeline of Events.……………………………………………………....283 2. Perverted Science: Some Examples………………………………………...290 3. List of Disease Whose Agents Have Been Selected for Consideration…….301 4. List of Disease Whose Agents Have Been Rejected, With Reasons……….303 5. Biological Weapons Facilities of the Soviet Union, Pre-Cold War………...305 List of References………………………………………………………………………307 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1. The Weapons of Mass Destruction Matrix……………………………………..14 Table 2. Status of Chemical Warfare Service Facilities.………………………………174 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page Figure 1. Minutes to Midnight, 1948-1992……………………………………….…….72 Figure 2. The I-400 Submarine and the M6A1 Seiran Torpedo-Bomber..……….……128 Figure 3. The Only Remaining M6A1 Seiran Torpedo-Bomber…………………..…..130 Figure 4. Experts and Dilettantes………………………………………………………252 vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS A/A – anti-aircraft ABC Committee – Scientific advisors to the WRS ACH – Alternative Competing Hypotheses Agent “X” – (Canada) Botulinus Toxin ALSOS – Not an acronym. The U.S. effort to collect Nazi scientific expertise after WWII. AP – Associated Press ASDIC – (Canada) the acoustic detection of submarines AT&T – American Telephone and Telegraph BACCHUS – Biotechnology Activity Characterization by Unconventional Signatures BARDA – Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority BRAB – (UK) Biological Research Advisory Board BSL – Biosafety Level BTWC – see BWC BW – Biological Weapons, Bacteriological Weapons; Biological Warfare BWC – The Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction; the Biological Weapons Convention viii CDC – The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CI – Counterintelligence CIA – The Central Intelligence Agency COMINT – Communications Intelligence CW – Chemical Weapons, Chemical Warfare CWS – Chemical Warfare Service DCI – Director of Central Intelligence DEF Committee – Follow-on to the ABC Committee DHS – Department of Homeland Security DNI – Director of National Intelligence DoD – Department of Defense DRPC – (UK) Defence Research Policy Committee DTRA – Defense Threat Reduction Agency ELINT – Electronic Intelligence E.O. – Executive Order FBI – Federal Bureau of Investigation FMD – Foot and Mouth Disease FOIA – Freedom of Information Act G-2 – U.S. Army Intelligence GAO – Government Accountability Office GIN – (Canada) Anthrax GIR-1 – (Canada) Grosse Isle Rinderpest ix HIJMS – (Japan) His Imperial Japanese Majesty’s Ship HSPD – Homeland Security Presidential Directive HUMINT – Human Intelligence IC – Intelligence Community IMINT – Imagery Intelligence INT – Intelligence JCS – Joint Chiefs of Staff LAC – (Canada) Large Area Concept LGA – (Germany) Luft-Gas-Angriff, Air Gas Attack LGV – (Germany) Luft-Gas-Verteidigung, Air Gas Defense LLC – Limited Liability Company LLNL – Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LSD – Lysergic acid Dyethylamide LtCol – (USAF) Lieutenant Colonel LTC – (U.S. Army) Lieutenant Colonel M-1000 Committee – (Canada) Biological Weapons Research Advisory Committee MASINT – Measurement and Signature Intelligence MLA – Modern Language Association mm – millimeter MRC – (UK) Medical Research Council MU – The University of Missouri at Columbia N – (UK, Canada, U.S.) Anthrax x n.b. – nota bene (Latin, mark well) NBACC – National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center NBAF – National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility NDRC – National Defense Research Council NIAID – National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases NMM – National Means and Methods NRC – (Canada) National Research Council NSC – National Security Council NTM – National Technical Means OC CWS – Office of the Chief, Chemical Warfare Service OMB – Office of Management and Budget OSINT – Open Source Intelligence OSS – Office of Strategic Services POW – Prisoner of War Project PX – Japanese War Plan, “Cherry Blossoms at Night” PX – pest bacillus-infected fleas RAF – (UK) Royal Air Force RDF – (Canada) codename for Radar Revcon – Review Conference R&D – Research and Development SARS – Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SEU – Subjective Expected Utilities xi SIGINT – Signals Intelligence SIPRI – Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SS – (Germany) Schutzstaffel, Defense Detachment, the “Black Shirts” TECHINT – Technical Intelligence UCLA – The University of California at Los Angeles UK – United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland UN – United Nations UNSCR – United Nations Security Council Resolution U.S. – The United States of America USAF – United States Air Force USAMRIID – United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases USDA – United States Department of Agriculture USSR – The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Wa-Prüf 9 – (Germany) Heeres Waffenamt, Amstgruppe Prüfwesen 9, Army Ordnance Office, Chemical Weapons Proving Ground WBC Committee – Committee on Biological Warfare WMD – Weapon(s) of Mass Destruction WRS – War Research Service WWI – World War I WWII – World War Two xii ABSTRACT THE TYRANNY OF EXPERTS – ANALYTIC MISPERCEPTION AND THE RISE OF STATE-RUN BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMS Brian D. Nordmann, PhD George Mason University, 2008 Dissertation Director: Christopher J. Davis The purpose of this study is to understand some of the factors contributing to the rise of State-run Biological Weapons (BW) programs in the early 20th century. To some extent, the factors which spurred the development of BW and other forms of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the early part of the twentieth century are still in play today. Understanding these factors may help in efforts to “roll back” nascent WMD programs. The development of BW programs was driven not by military requirements but, rather, was the result of societal fears and ignorance, including xenophobia and racism. Fear and