Report Number 10 April 1987 FEWS Country Report BURKINA, CHAD, MALI, MAURITANIA, and NIGER Africa Bureau U.S. Agency for International Development Summary Map __ Chad lMurltanl fL People displaced by fighting High percentage of population have bothL.J in B.E.T. un~tfood needsa nd no source of income - High crop oss cobied with WESTERN Definite increases in retes of malnutrition at CRS centers :rom scarce mrket and low SAHARA .ct 1985 through Nov 196 ,cash income Areas with high percentage MA RTAI of vulnerable LIBYA MAU~lAN~A/populations / ,,NIGER SENEGAL %.t'"S-"X UIDA Areas at-risk I/TGI IEI BurkinaCAMEROON Areas where grasshoppers r Less than 50z of food needs met combined / CENTRAL AFRICAN would have worst impact Fi with absence of government stocks REPLTL IC if expected irdestat ions occur W Less than r59 of food needs met combined ith absence of government stocks FEYIS/PWA. April 1987 Famine Early Warning System Country Report BURKINA CHAD MALI MAURITANIA NIGER Populations Under Duress Prepared for the Africa Bureau of the U.S. Agency for International Development Prepared by Price, Williams & Associates, Inc. April 1987 Contents Page i Introduction 1 Summary 2 Burkina 6 Chad 9 Mali 12 Mauritania 18 Niger 2f FiAures 3 Map 2 Burkina, Grain Supply and OFNACER Stocks 4 Table I Burkina, Production and OFNACER Stocks 6 Figure I Chad, Prices of Staple Grains in N'Djamcna 7 Map 3 Chad, Populations At-Risk 10 Table 2 Mali, Free Food Distribution Plan for 1987 II Map 4 Mali, Population to Receive Food Aid 12 Figure 2 Mauritania, Decreasing Malnutrition 13 Figure 3 Mau-itania, Increasing Malnutrition 16 Table 3 Muuritania, Population Lacking Food Security 17 Ma r 5 Mauritania, Population Lacking Food Security 18 Figure 4 Niger, Millet Price Trends 1978-86 19 Figure 5 Niger, Niamey Millet Prices 19 Figure 6 Niger, Diffa Millet Prices 20 Figuie 7 Niger, Agadez Millet Prices 21 Map 6 Niger, Millet Prices by Arrondissement 21 Map 7 Niger, Rapid Nutritional Assessment in Ouallam 23 Map 8 Burkina, Reference Map 24 Map 9 Chad, Reference Map 25 Map 10 Mali, Reference Map 26 Map II Mauritania, Reference Map 27 Map 12 Niger, Reference Map INTRODUCTION This is the tenth in a series of monthly country reports issued by the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS). Burkina, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger will be combined in one report until the crop cycle begins again in the spring. These reports are designed to provide decisionmakers with current information and analysis on existing and potential nutritional emergency situations. Each situation identified is described in terms of geographical extent, the number of people involved, or at-risk, and the proximate causes insofar as they have been discerned. Information sources are cited in the text. Information has, whenever possible, been presented in the forryi of quantified data. When quantified data do not exist, qualitative data are used. Use of the term "at-risk" to identify vulnerable popula­ tions is problematical since no genernily agreed upon definition exists. Yet it is necessary to identify or "target" populations in-need or "at-risk" in order to determine appropriate forms and levels of intervention. Thus, FEWS reports will employ the term "at-risk" to mean... ...those persons lacking sufficient food, or resources to acquire sufficient food, to avert a nutritional crisis (i.e., a progressive deterioration in their health or nutritional condition below the status quo) and who, as a result, require specific intervention to avoid a life-threatening situation. Perhaps of most importance to decisionmakers, the process underlying the deteriorating situation is highlighted by the FEWS effort, hopefully with enough specificity and forewarning to permit alternative intervention strategies to be examined and implemented. Food assistance strate­ gies ar.- key to famine avoidance. Other types of intervention, however, can be of major importance both in the short-term and in the long-run, including medical, transport, storage, economic development policy change, etc. Where possible, estimates of food needs are included in the FEWS reports. It is important to understand, however, that no direct a priori relationship exists between numbers of persons at-risk and the quantity of food assistance that may be needed. This is because famines are the culmination of slow-onset disaster processes which can be extremely complex. The food needs of individual populations at-risk depend upon when in the disaster process they are identified, and the extent of the cumulative impact on the indivi­ duals concerned. Furthermore, the amount of food assistance required, whether from internal or external sources, depends upon a great number of considerations. Thus the food needs estimates presented periodically in FEWS reports should not be interpreted to mean food aid needs, (e.g., as under PL480 or other donor programs). FEWS does not collect primary data. Rather, it receives information from various domestic U.S. and international agencies and private voluntary organizations, and from government agencies in te c:ountries under study via in- Zountry FEWS Public Health Advisors. The n'formation is then examined, compiled and analyzed for its predictive potential. Without the ongoing cooperation of all the3e organizations, FEWS could not function. In particular, this report owes a debt to various offices of the US Agency for International Development (AID), USAID/Ouagadougou, USAID/N'Djumena, USAID/Bamako, USAID/Nouakchott, and USAID/Niamey; the Government of Burkina (GOB) Ministry of Agriculture and National Cereal Marketing Board (OFNACER); the Government of Chad (GOC) Ministry of Food Security and Displaced Persons (MSAPS), and the multi-agency Food Aid Action Committee (CASAD); the Government of the Republic of Mali (GRM) Committee for Aid to the Victims of the Drought (CNAVS) Systeme d'Alerte Precoce (SAP, Early Warning System); the Government of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania (GIRM) Commission for Food Security (CSA); the Government of Niger (GON) Office of Food Products (OPV"i); UNICEF and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); the European Agency for Development and Health (AEDES); and Catholic Relief Services (CRS), Doctors Without Borders (MSF), World Vision (WV), CARE, and OXFAM. FEWS is operated by AID's Office of Technical Resources in the Bureau for Africa in cooperation with numerous USG and other organizations. SUMMARY While Burkina as a whole has surficient production and stocks in-country to meet its people's needs, there are still areas which lack sufficient food grains. In par­ ticular, Soum, Sissili, Oudalan, and Namentenga Provin­ ces lack both sufficient harvest and government stocks to meet provincial needs. In Chad, the number of people confirmed to require food assistance this spring remains 13,000. Further assessments of previously identified potentially at-risk populations in two areas have shown the local economy to be strong enough for traditional coping mechanisms to be effective. There is no new word on the 5,000 refugees due to return to Chad from Maidu­ guri, Nigeria, but there has been a marked increase in the flow of refugees from Sudan. This will put pressure on Chad's new UNHCR office to open its east Chad office quickly. The number of people displaced by the fighting in B.E.T. Prefecture is growing, but so far the relief supplies in place are more than enough to meet their needs. The situation in Mall, in terms of population at­ risk, has not changed over the past two months. People continue to leave some parts of Gao and Tombouctou Region in search of work and more certain food supplies in Gao Town. Food aid distribution has begun in Gao Region. At least 37 percent of Mauritanla's population have neither cereal crops nor cash income with which to purchase foods. These people will have to depend on non-cereal foods, stocks of food from previous years (if any), and food aid through this next growing season. In Niger, there has been no recent change in the number of people identified as at-risk by the Government of Niger (approximately 715,000 people, 10.3% of the population). Trends in millet prices support other indicators that suggest that no major food supply problems currently exist in Niger. Issues e In Mauritania, a disquietirg increase in child mal­ nutrition rates has been seen at some feeding centers (through November 1986). If the increasing rates of malnutrition have continued through the harvest season, especially where rates of child malnutrition are already high (e.g., Brakna Region), these areas will require additional attention from the government and the donor community. * Rat infestations are reported in Chad and Mali. These pests cause at least as much damage to crops as The administrative units in Burkina are Provinces, Departments, and Arron­ dissements; in Chad, Prefectures, Sub-prefectures, and Cantons; in Mall, Regions, Cercles, and Arrondissements; in Mauritania, Regions, Departmento, and Arrondissements; and in Niger, Departments and Arrondissements. grasshoppers, starting at the beginning of the growing season. The problems of rat control should not be overlooked in the attention paid to grasshopper and locu3t control. Key Events * The rainy season will begin during April in the southernmost areas of Chad and Burkina. * Plans for grasshopper control are close to completion in each country. For control campaigns to begin on time, the necessary commodities must already have been ordered, and should arrive during April. BURKINA The 1986 harvest, coupled with current OFNACER stocks, Cereal Prod-uctlon meets 105.4% of Burkina's food needs. The distribution of the cereals harvest and OFNACER stocks, however, is not uniform across all provinces. Burkina's immediate concern will therefore be to distribute cereals from surplus to deficit areas. In particular, Soum, Oudalan, Namentenga, and Sissili Provinces, which have significant food deficits (see FEWS Report 9 for a detailed account­ ing), do not have any pre-positioned OFNACER stocks (Map 2, Table 1).