THINKAUTOMOTIVE INSIGHTS ACT AUTOMATED DRIVING Winning strategies for suppliers INTERVIEW Uber's Christian Freese about a new mobility OND MAINSTREAM OND market BEY 2015 | 1 DIGITAL DRIVE The future of automotive 2 Blindtext 3 KEY TAKEAWAYS The future of automotive is digital. By analyzing, developing new approaches and understanding changing mindsets Roland Berger experts help create value and change the game. Analyzing – Digitization The digital transformation also gives the automotive industry the chance to generate new business. Based on the trends we identified, we see four key areas where resolute action is needed: Digital data, automation, digital customer interface and connectivity. THE DAWN OF THE DIGITAL CAR Rethinking – Mobility "We are witnessing a radical change in the way people behave in conurbations. Trips are no longer planned and pre-ordered in advance. Ad hoc availability is the key." UBER GERMANY'S MANAGING DIRECTOR CHRISTIAN FREESE Practicing – Automated driving Any supplier with aspirations to become a full systems provider – complete with all the vehicle and integration skills required – will have to master three new areas of technology: Navigation, vehicle control and human-machine interface. WHO WILL BE IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT? Focus Kapitza/Agentur Enno Photo: Terré; – Illustrators Kinky illustration: Cover Automotive Insights 1 | 2015 Editorial 3 DEAR READER, DIGITIZATION has captured the imagination of the automotive industry. The signs are visible everywhere – and not just at this year's International Motor Show in Frankfurt. Industry 4.0 is making production smarter, vehicles are being connected to their environment, and customers can draw on a plethora of channels to find out what they need to know about cars, buy them or have them maintained. To put it simply: Data is in- creasingly shaping the automotive industry's business models. TAKEN TOGETHER, these developments have the potential to bring sweeping changes to your industry. As we have seen in the telecommunications, music and publishing industries radical upheavals are usual- ly preceded by gradual development in several phases. Technologies mature, social acceptance grows and initial competitors from converging industries try their hand at new business models. Think of Uber! (See our interview with Christian Freese, head of Uber in Germany, on page 24.) ARE WE TALKING ABOUT A REVOLUTION, then, or a process of evolution? And what will the coming changes mean for you and your company? Marcus Berret is head of the global Automotive CC at To begin to answer these questions, the latest issue Roland Berger and head of the company's supervisory board. of our Automotive Insights magazine– entitled "The digital drive" – is devoted to the topic of digitization. "The digital drive" sketches the wider scope of changes taking place right now, zooms in on individual country markets (the U.S., China and Brazil) and examines how the automotive industry is doing in areas such Talking as multichannel retail, electromobility and automated driving. No one knows exactly where the road will lead. Yet there are clear markers and road signs along the way. about a These must be heeded if we are to shape the future of the market together. Enjoy your read! revolution? Marcus Berret Cover illustration: Kinky Illustrators – Terré; Photo: Enno Kapitza/Agentur Focus Kapitza/Agentur Enno Photo: Terré; – Illustrators Kinky illustration: Cover Automotive Insights 1 | 2015 4 USA: There will still be cars on U.S. roads – but how many and which ones? 44 12 %(aged 14-28) would buy a car online 32 New world: Data-driven innovations will change the automotive business. 18 China: Buying a car could be more convenient in the future. 8 Photos: Audi AG; Daniele Mattioli/Anzenberger Agency; Gene Glover/Agentur Focus; Andy Phan, Page; Illustration: Kinky Illustrators - Terré - Illustrators Kinky Illustration: Phan, Page; Andy Focus; Gene Glover/Agentur Agency; Mattioli/Anzenberger Daniele AG; Audi Photos: Automotive Insights 1 | 2015 "Are we talking of a revolution 5 or a process of evolution?" Marcus Berret, page 3 CONTENT PLACES 6 Automotive pinboard Trends, facts and figures on the brink of a new automotive world 8 Click and drive How Chinese players are revolutionizing e-commerce in their automotive market Represents the new players in the industry: Christian Freese 12 Owners, drivers and urban traffic of the future In our U.S. market scenario we take an educated guess on three 24 key performance indicators 16 Spotlight Brazil The new vehicles market is losing momentum – but the aftermarket is vibrant. Handpicked results of our study PERSPECTIVES 18 The dawn of the digital car Digital customer, connectivity, automation and digital data – OEMs and suppliers need to gear up for automotive 4.0 24 "Ad hoc mobility" explained In our interview Uber Germany's Managing Director, Christian Freese, on where new entrants shake up traditional markets 27 Who will be in the driver‘s seat? System provider or niche player in automated driving – it is time for suppliers to position themselves PLAYERS 30 Japan under siege Our ranking compares leading nations in terms of market reach, technological maturity and industrial power 32 Reconnect with your customers New ways to orchestrate multichannel retailing 36 Food for thought Roland Berger's latest thinking on automotive and other industries 38 Famous cars: Golf A "generation car", perhaps the last of its kind Photos: Audi AG; Daniele Mattioli/Anzenberger Agency; Gene Glover/Agentur Focus; Andy Phan, Page; Illustration: Kinky Illustrators - Terré - Illustrators Kinky Illustration: Phan, Page; Andy Focus; Gene Glover/Agentur Agency; Mattioli/Anzenberger Daniele AG; Audi Photos: 39 Contacts and authors Automotive Insights 1 | 2015 6 AUTOMOTIVE PINBOARD We collected insightful trends, facts and figures that may impact the industry CHANGING MINDSETS MIXED FEELINGS: TRUST DECLINE: NEED TO UP AND COMING: IN AUTOMATED DRIVING OWN A CAR DIVERSITY IN AUTO FIRMS According to a Cisco study By 2025, the percentage of car owners aged 39 or younger will drop GM names Mary Barra as from today's 63% (female) and 60% 57% (male) to 58% and 54%, respectively. the car industry's first woman of people globally would CEO. In 2014, six of the com­ put their trust in a driverless vehicle. pany's 25 corporate officers 63 60 were women. male 58 Honda taps its first female female 95%of Brazilians embrace the concept. board member: Hideko Kunii, 2025 54 66. She is the first female In Japan only director at a big Japanese carmaker. While some 20 years ago most teens 28% and tweens aspired to own a car, today's of people are willing to give up direct young people would rather spend their control of their cars. time interacting on social networks. Toyota named Julie Hamp, a senior official at Toyota The U.S. acceptance rate of 70% of adults globally say they are open to unconventional methods of Motor North America, as a transportation. managing officer, making the American the company‘s 60% Sources: WSJ, Autonews, Reuters, TomTom, Forbes, FT, was above the global average. WEF, Ford Trends Survey, Cisco and Roland Berger. first female executive. AG Photo: BMW Automotive Insights 1 | 2015 Pinboard 7 A GLIMPSE INTO THE LABORATORIES LIGHT BY SIGHT Intelligent light systems Made by Opel: A new technology will enable drivers to direct the headlights to wherever their eyes are looking. SMART EYES MADE OF FLAX Mini unveils Augmented Vision For the Peugeot 308, Faurecia has supplied an injection- eyewear: The technology molded part that consists of 20% natural materials, packed into the glasses projects such as hemp. Other new products containing hemp fibers relevant information into the are set to follow later in 2015 or 2016. driver's direct field of vision. POWER REVOLUTION Bosch ushers in a battery revolution, offering double the range at half the price: Batteries for electric cars are going to get considerably better by 2020 – with negative consequences for the residual value of today's electric cars. POINTS OF INTEREST TURKEY CHINA The TomTom Traffic Index China may surpass the U.S. 2015 reveals that as the world's largest Istanbul is the global leader market for electric vehicles UNITED STATES in congestion. in 2015. With improvements in vehicle fuel economy, U.S. drivers' average gasoline consumption is the lowest it's been in at least 30 years, according to research by the University of Michigan. INDIA India's automotive industry is expected to reach 7 million vehicles by 2020, making the country the third-largest auto manufacturer in the world Photo: BMW AG Photo: BMW behind the U.S. and China. Automotive Insights 1 | 2015 8 Click and drive E-commerce meets offline touchpoints: Many customers had experience with owning a car in the last decade. This is necessary if manufacturers are to merge offline and online channels. Photos: Wang Zhao/AFP/Getty Images, Daniele Mattioli / Anzenberger Agency Anzenberger Mattioli / Daniele Images, Zhao/AFP/Getty Wang Photos: Automotive Insights 1 | 2015 9 Click and drive China's automotive e-commerce is gaining traction. The challenge is to connect offline and online activities and create an entire retail ecosystem. We illustrate future business models and draw conclusions on how OEMs can equip their platforms. by Junyi Zhang and Fanny Cao hina is crazy about "Double Eleven": windfall revenue for retailers, with 24.3 Chinese automotive industry need to ad- C on November 11, the largest online billion yuan (CNY) worth of orders record- vance to the next stage and who will be the shopping day in the world, China’s auto- ed in a single day, the surge of festival mo- winners in that race? motive industry looks to set new records in mentum invariably wanes. Average daily online orders. One of the biggest plat- auto sales at websites, portals and online CONNECT OFFLINE AND ONLINE forms – Autohome – sold more than 30,000 dealers continue to remain anemic.