Outlook on Water and Climate Change Vulnerability in the Western Balkans 1 Cover photo Bajina Bašta accumulation on river Drina between Serbia (left side of the picture) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (right side of the picture) © photo: Gašper Šubelj Layout/editing Miluše Rollerová Legal notice This European Topic Centre on Inland, Coastal and Marine Waters (ETC/ICM) Technical Report has not been subject to a European Environment Agency (EEA) member country review but the contents have been presented and discussed in two workshops with representatives from West Balkan countries. The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the EEA, European Commission or other institutions of the European Communities. Neither the ETC/ICM nor any person or company acting on behalf of the ETC/ICM is responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. Copyright notice © ETC/ICM, UFZ, 2018 Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. Information about the European Topic Centre on Inland, Coastal and Marine Waters is available on the internet at: water.eionet.europa.eu. ISBN 978-3-944280-60-8 Author affiliation Lidija Globevnik, Luka Snoj, Gašper Šubelj – TC Vode, Slovenia EEA Project manager Blaž Kurnik, European Environment Agency, Denmark Editor Anita Künitzer – UFZ, Germany Reference to the report Globevnik, L., Snoj L., Šubelj, G., Kurnik, B., 2018, Outlook on Water and Climate Change Vulnerability in the Western Balkans, ed. Künitzer, A., ETC/ICM Technical Report 1/2018, Magdeburg: European Topic Centre on inland, coastal and marine waters, 86 pp. European Topic Centre on Inland, Coastal and Marine Waters – ETC/ICM Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH – UFZ Brückstr.3a 39114 Magdeburg Germany Web: water.eionet.europa.eu 2 Outlook on Water and Climate Change Vulnerability in the Western Balkans Contents Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... 5 Units, abbreviations and acronyms ............................................................................................... 6 Executive summary ...................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 11 1.1. Introduction to this report ................................................................................................. 12 1.2. Background ......................................................................................................................... 13 1.3. Policy context ..................................................................................................................... 14 Methodology ............................................................................................................. 15 2.1. Delineating spatial and time frame .................................................................................... 17 2.2. Participative approach – workshops .................................................................................. 17 Workshop 1 “Implications of global megatrends in the Western Balkans region” – Ljubljana, 10–11 April 2017 ............................................................................................. 18 Workshop 2 “Assessment of risks and opportunities, policy gaps and needs” – Belgrade, 7–8 September 2017 ....................................................................................... 19 2.3. Data sources ....................................................................................................................... 19 Present state and trends in the Western Balkans ........................................................ 21 3.1. Overview ............................................................................................................................. 21 Social factors .................................................................................................................. 22 Technological factors ..................................................................................................... 26 Economic factors ........................................................................................................... 27 Environmental factors ................................................................................................... 32 Political factors .............................................................................................................. 33 3.2. Water resources ................................................................................................................. 34 Water availability ........................................................................................................... 35 Water use ...................................................................................................................... 37 3.3. Land use change ................................................................................................................. 41 3.4. Energy ................................................................................................................................. 43 3.5. Hydrological extremes ........................................................................................................ 44 2014 Southeast Europe floods ...................................................................................... 45 2016 floods in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia ........................................ 47 Disaster preparedness and prevention in the Western Balkans ................................... 48 Water availability in the context of scenarios ............................................................. 50 4.1. Scenarios ............................................................................................................................ 50 Catchment-based modelling of water availability in the context of scenarios .............. 54 Factors of modelling water availability ......................................................................... 54 Uncertainties, data gaps and information needs .......................................................... 57 Climate change .............................................................................................................. 57 5.2. Water availability ................................................................................................................ 61 Spatial overview of future water availability ................................................................. 61 Scenario overview of future water availability .............................................................. 62 Seasonal overview of future water availability ............................................................. 64 Outlook on Water and Climate Change Vulnerability in the Western Balkans 3 Outlook on water and climate change vulnerability .................................................... 65 6.1. Impacts on society, economy and ecosystems .................................................................. 65 Impacts on society ......................................................................................................... 65 Impacts on economy ..................................................................................................... 66 Impacts on the environment ......................................................................................... 67 6.2. Adaption measures ............................................................................................................. 67 Grey measures ............................................................................................................... 68 Green measures ............................................................................................................. 69 Soft measures ................................................................................................................ 69 Future opportunities in the region ............................................................................. 71 References ................................................................................................................................. 73 Annex 1: Land cover categories per catchment and scenario ..................................................... 83 Annex 2: Decision rules for expansion of land cover categories ................................................. 84 Annex 3: Participating experts at the project workshops ........................................................... 85 4 Outlook on Water and Climate Change Vulnerability in the Western Balkans Acknowledgements This report has been prepared through the contributions of a large number of experts and project partners, reflecting the participatory nature of the methodology used. We are particularly grateful to the European Environment Agency (EEA), the ETC/ICM Manager Anita Künitzer (UFZ) and Collinwood Environmental Planning (CEP) (Owen White, Rolands Sadauskis) for their assistance in supporting workshop administration, providing presentations during workshops and supporting the workshops through their participation. In particular the support of Anita Pirc-Velkavrh and Lorenzo Benini at the project workshops is recognised. The Serbian EPA for their gracious hosting