Scotland’s centre of expertise for waters Impacts of winter 2015/16 flooding in and around Ballater and in the Garioch: overview of findings from Project Year 1 Scotland’s centre of expertise for waters Published by CREW – Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Waters. CREW connects research and policy, delivering objective and robust research and expert opinion to support the development and implementation of water policy in Scotland. CREW is a partnership between the James Hutton Institute and all Scottish Higher Education Institutes supported by MASTS. The Centre is funded by the Scottish Government. This document was produced by: Lorna Philip and Gillian Dowds University of Aberdeen, King’s College, Aberdeen, AB24 3FX Mags Currie and Annie McKee The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH Please reference this report as: Philip, L., Currie, M., Dowds, G., and McKee, A. (2018) Impacts of winter 2015/16 flooding in and around Ballater and in the Garioch: overview of findings from Project Year 1. Available online crew.ac.uk/publications Dissemination status: Unrestricted Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, modified or stored in a retrieval system without the prior written permission of CREW management. While every effort is made to ensure that the information given here is accurate, no legal responsibility is accepted for any errors, omissions or misleading statements. All statements, views and opinions expressed in this paper are attributable to the author(s) who contribute to the activities of CREW and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders. 1 Contents 1. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 3 2. CASE STUDY AREAS 3 3. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY 4 3.1. Survey design, sampling, administration and response rate 4 3.2 Overview of key findings 5 3.2.1 Response rate and key attributes of respondents 5 3.2.2 Impacts of the winter 2015/16 flooding on respondents and their households 5 3.2.3 Being aware of and preparing for flooding 6 3.2.4 Sources of information relied upon 7 3.2.5 Insurance cover 7 3.2.6 One year on from the flooding 8 4. BUSINESS SURVEY 8 4.2 Garioch case study area Business Survey findings 9 4.3 Ballater case study area Business Survey findings 10 5 INTERVIEWS 11 5.1 Methodology 11 5.2 Recruitment 11 5.3 Recruited interviewees & attributes 12 5.4 Interview procedure & analysis 12 5.5 Key findings from the analysis of the Phase 1 interviews 12 6 REFERENCES 13 2 Community 1 comprises the area covered by the Port 1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION Elphinstone Primary School catchment area and a handful of properties directly adjacent to Port Elphinstone, on the Assessing the Impacts of Flooding The purpose of the east bank of the River Don and close to the confluence of project is to better understand the impacts of flooding the Rivers Urie and Don. Community 2 comprises the area upon people and communities and to consider what types covered by the Kintore Primary School catchment area that of support and advice are needed at different stages of a lies to the east of the A96 which bypasses Kintore. long term recovery. Over a 36 month period, the project will advance our understanding of these long term impacts, contribute to better flood risk management and make suggestions as to how personal and community resilience may be supported and enhanced. Two communities in Aberdeenshire affected by flooding in December 2015/ January 2016 are the focus of the research. The Ballater area, in upper Deeside, experienced severe flooding for the first time in many years in late December 2015, flooding that was largely unexpected and which had a widespread impact on the community. The Garioch area (specifically Port Elphinstone and Kintore), on the River Don, has experienced many flood events and was badly flooded in early January 2016. In year 1 of the project, data collection comprised three distinct elements: • Household Survey conducted in both case study areas. • Business Survey conducted in both case study areas Interviews with residents and business owners/ managers in both case study areas, including interviews with those who Ballater and Crathie Community Council Area were and were not directly affected by the winter 2015/16 flooding This report provides information about the rationale and methodology supporting each data collection activity and an overview of key findings to date. 2 CASE STUDY AREAS The Ballater case study comprises the area covered by Ballater and Crathie Community Council, which falls within Aberdeenshire Council Ward 15 Upper Deeside and Donside. In the immediate aftermath of the Ballater flooding the BBC reported ‘hundreds of people evacuated from homes in Ballater, Aberdeenshire, due to flooding and power outage’ (BBC 30 December 2015) and the Press and Journal reported on March 28th 2016 that around 300 Ballater properties had been flooded. Properties in 18 streets were affected (pers com, Aberdeenshire Council). It is not known how many properties in the rural areas of the Ballater and Crathie Community Council area (including SEPA Flood Map for the Ballater area Glenmuick, Glen Gairn, Crathie and Balmoral) were affected. The Garioch case study comprises two adjacent communities, Port Elphinstone and Kintore. Both communities fall within Port Elphinstone and Kintore parish. 3 3 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY 3.1 Survey design, sampling, administration and response rate The household survey was designed to elicit attitudes and opinions from those directly affected by flooding and those who were not flooded themselves but who were affected by the disruption the flooding brought to their community. Port Elphinstone Primary School Catchment Area The survey included questions about previous flood experience; awareness of and preparedness for the flood event; household experiences of the flooding; impacts of the flood event in the immediate aftermath; information about any formal and informal help given or received following the flooding; and provided information that could inform planning for future flooding events. Two separate versions of the household survey were prepared, one for each case study area. An innovative element of the survey was the use of questions asking respondents to consider various issues in terms of how things were before, during and after the winter 2015/16 flooding. This introduces a longitudinal dimension to the survey data that aligns with the longitudinal approach adopted for the interview-based Kintore Primary School (pre 2017) catchment area phase of the research. Respondents were also asked to reflect on the sources of information they found most useful as the winter 2015/16 flooding unfolded, including questions on the use of online content, which could identify the potential role of online content in responses to future flood event. A number of questions in the household survey replicated, or were based on questions used in previous research to allow a comparison with findings reported elsewhere. For example, some align with those used by Werrity et al in their 2007 study Exploring the Social Impacts of Flood Risk and Flooding in Scotland. Others are based on questions used in the Citizen’s Advice Bureau’s 2016 report Bailed Out. Issues affecting flooded consumers and ability to access affordable insurance, primarily those about household insurance. Four hundred hard copies of the household survey were distributed per case study area. The Garioch case study area comprises two adjacent but distinct communities, Port SEPA Flood Map for the Port Elphinstone and Kintore areas Elphinstone and Kintore and both were equally represented in the sampling frame. Many more households in Ballater had been flooded in winter 2015/16 than in Garioch. Households in flooded streets were oversampled in both communities in an effort to secure as high a number as possible of responses from flooded households. Most addresses were identified from the Open Electoral Register, the remainder were selected (a) in the field and (b) with reference to address finder to reflect the geographical distribution streets affected by flooding in both study areas. 4 Surveys in the Ballater case study area were administered were flooded. In Ballater only 20% of respondents reported at the beginning of April 2017. The survey covering that ‘no property was flooded’. In Garioch many more letter requested that completed surveys be returned respondents, 58.5%, had not had direct experience of their in the Freepost envelope provided within 3 weeks. A property (home, garden, outbuildings, car, land) flooding in reminder letter was mailed, two weeks after the survey was winter 2015/16. distributed, to households known not to have responded. Demographic attributes of respondents. Slightly more men Surveys were mailed to Garioch addresses at the end of June than women responded to the household survey. Almost 2017 and a reminder letter was sent three weeks later. half of the respondents were aged 65 and over; older adults An online version of the household survey was launched to are over-represented in both the Ballater and Garioch sub- coincide with postal versions being mailed in both case study samples. Half of all respondents were retired. 46% were areas. The opportunity to complete a survey online was employed, with self-employment being more common in widely advertised locally (e.g. displaying posters in shops Ballater than in Garioch. The income profiles of respondents and other public places, articles in the local press, sharing from both study areas were similar and broadly in line with details on the project webpage/Facebook page, etc.). It is what would be associated with Aberdeenshire as a whole unknown if those who completed the online version of the (Aberdeen City Council, 2015). household survey had also received a hard copy. Details of Attributes of respondents’ homes. 96% of respondents had the responses achieved are set out in Table 1.