Inside Spain Nr 162 21 May - 18 June 2019 William Chislett Summary Socialist victory in European elections, Sánchez placed to push for top EU jobs. Spain slips in Elcano Global Presence Index. A new Socialist government within Sánchez’s grasp. Landmark Catalan independence trial ends after four months. Bank of Spain presses the next government to reform the pension system. Iberdrola plans to build in Spain Europe’s largest solar farm. Foreign Policy Socialist victory in European elections, Sánchez placed to push for top EU jobs The Socialists won 20 of Spain’s 54 seats in the 26 May elections for the European Parliament, up from 14 in 2014, making them the largest social-democratic party in the new parliament. The conservative Popular Party (PP) captured 12 seats, four fewer (see Figure 1). 1 Inside Spain Nr 162 21 May - 18 June 2019 Figure 1. Results of European elections, 2019 and 2014 (seats, millions of votes and % of total votes) 2019 2014 Seats Votes % Seats Votes % Socialists 20 7.3 32.8 14 3.6 23.0 Popular Party 12 4.5 20.1 16 4.0 26.1 Ciudadanos 7 2.7 12.2 2 0.5 3.2 Unidas Podemos 6 2.2 10.0 5 1.2 8.0 VOX 3 1.4 6.2 – 0.2 1.6 Ahora Repúblicas (1) 3 1.2 5.6 – – – Junts (2) 2 1.0 4.6 – – – Coalición Europa Solidaria 1 0.6 2.8 3 0.8 5.4 (3) UPyD – – – 4 1.0 6.5 L’Esquerra – – – 2 0.6 4.0 Los Pueblos Deciden – – – 1 0.3 2.1 Compromiso por Europa – 0.3 1.3 1 0.3 1.9 Voter turnout (%) 64.3 46 Total seats 54 54 (1) Various regional parties including Catalan Republican Left (ERC), a pro-independence party, and EH Bildu, a leftist party in favour of independence for the Basque Country; (2) pro Catalan independence; (3) several parties including the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). Source: Interior Ministry. On a much higher turnout (64% vs 46% in 2014 and compared with an EU average of 50.9%), favoured by holding the European elections at the same time as municipal and regional ones, the Socialists, led by Josep Borrell, the outgoing Foreign Minister and a former President of the European Parliament, doubled the number of their votes to 7.3 million (32.8% of the total). Their victory in terms of votes was almost as large as that in the 28 April general election (with turnout much higher at 75.7%) when they won 7.5 million votes, making them the main party in the Spanish parliament but without an absolute majority. The Socialists’ victory gives Pedro Sánchez, the caretaker Prime Minister, a key role in negotiating, along with his Portuguese counterpart Antonio Costa, on behalf of the centre-left S&D alliance, the future President of the European Commission, the 2 Inside Spain Nr 162 21 May - 18 June 2019 parliament and the European Council and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security with the other political groups. The French Socialist Party collapsed, in Germany the Green Party overtook the Social- Democratic Party and in the UK the Labour Party suffered one of its worst results. Sánchez is in a strong position to push top posts for his country and increase Spain’s influence on the EU’s agenda.1 Borrell, among others, is reportedly in line for a top post. Since Javier Solana and Joaquín Almunia left Brussels, both of them in 2009, Spain has not had a high-profile politician in the European Commission, and it lost its seat on the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board with the departure in 2012 of José Manuel González-Páramo, a loss only reversed in June 2018 with the arrival of Luis de Guindos. The comparison with Italy is striking, particularly given Spain’s greater enthusiasm for more EU integration. Italians currently hold the Presidency of the ECB (Mario Draghi) and the European Parliament (Antonio Tajani), as well as the post of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs (Federica Mogherini) and the head of the ECB Single Supervisory Board (Andrea Enria). Sánchez met with the liberal President Emmanuel Macron of France to coordinate how to block the candidacy of the German conservative Manfred Weber for the European Commission presidency. The coalition of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), led by Webber, won the most seats in the parliament, but far fewer than in 2014. Sánchez supports Frans Timmermans, the Dutch centre-left EU commissioner, for the top job. The centre-right and centre-left alliances fell short of a majority for the first time since direct elections for the European Parliament began 40 years ago, while ALDE (the group, to which Macron’s party belongs) and the Greens posted the biggest gains. Spain’s centre-right Ciudadanos (Cs) also did well in the European elections, increasing its number of seats from two to seven and winning 2.7 million votes (15.9%), 2.2 million more than in 2014. The conservative Popular Party, which was hammered in the 28 April general election after moving further to the right, gained 4.5 million votes (+500,000), following a more centrist discourse. The two main leaders of the Catalan independence movement –Carles Puigdemont, the fugitive former Premier of the region and Oriol Junqueras, his imprisoned deputy, whose four-month trial for organising the illegal referendum on secession in October 2017 ended this month– were elected to the European Parliament. In order to take up his seat, 1 See the following article by Miguel Otero-Iglesias and Ilke Toygür for Spain’s position and aspirations. http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEX T=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/commentary-oteroiglesiastoygur-sanchez-must-snatch- economic-vice-presidency-for-spain. 3 Inside Spain Nr 162 21 May - 18 June 2019 Puigdemont had to come to Madrid from his self-imposed exile in Belgium and swear loyalty to the Spanish Constitution before the Electoral Board by 17 June, and he would be arrested. He did not come. Toni Comín, a former member of the Catalan government and in self-imposed exile too, was also elected to the European parliament. When the UK leaves the EU, as assumed will happen as of 31 October, with or without a negotiated deal, the number of Spanish MEPs will increase from 54 to 59. This will benefit the Socialists, the PP, Cs, VOX and Ahora República, which will each gain one more seat. Spain slips in Elcano Global Presence Index Spain moved down one position in the 2018 Elcano Global Presence Index to 12th spot out of 120 countries, although its score was slightly higher (264.9 as against 258.5, see Figure 2). Figure 2. 2018 Elcano Global Presence Index, top 20 2018 1990 2018 1990 Country score score Country score score 1. US 2.856.9 2,288.3 11. India 268.0 111.0 2. China 1006.4 152.8 12. Spain 264.9 124.4 3. Germany 685.2 536.3 13.South Korea 254.1 94.8 4. UK 678.7 615.8 14. Australia 209.9 101.0 5. Japan 598.6 500.4 15. Switzerland 183.6 93.2 6. France 585.8 564.6 16. Belgium 182.9 197.2 7. Russia 503.1 920.1 17.Singapore 155.9 37.2 8. Canada 381.2 250.4 18. Brazil 137.8 107.1 9. Italy 316.1 292.1 19. Turkey 129.5 53.7 10. Netherlands 316.1 182.2 20. UAE 127.7 5.3 Source: Elcano Royal Institute. The countries covered generate 99.3% of global GDP and account for 94.3% of the world’s population. The 15 countries in the top positions are the same as in 2017, but there are three interesting overtakings: Germany and the UK swap positions, with the UK falling from 3rd to 4th place (a Brexit effect?). The same happens with Japan, which goes up to the 5th spot while France falls to 6th (Abenomics?). As expected, India overtook Spain into 11th position, although it has opted for a more inward-oriented development model. 4 Inside Spain Nr 162 21 May - 18 June 2019 The index, the result of adding together 16 indicators of external projection that are aggregated according to the criteria of experts in international relations, measures the ability of countries to project themselves beyond their borders and the extent to which they are participating in and shaping the process of globalisation. It measures global presence based on three dimensions. First, it ranks a country’s economic presence, including outward foreign direct investment and other elements such as energy, services and exports. Secondly, it assesses a country’s military presence, which is determined by the number of troops deployed abroad and the equipment available for deployment. And third, it includes statistics on a country’s soft presence, which is based on a wide number of factors including exports of cultural products, tourist arrivals and official development aid. The index does not measure power and nor does it reflect a country’s effort to achieve greater internationalisation or its degree of openness. Instead it shows the results of internationalisation and examines the external projection of countries more than the way in which they absorb the external action of other countries within their national territory. The index thus takes into account the exports of manufactured goods, for example, but disregards the imports. By comparing a state’s presence with its actual power (or influence), it is possible to gauge the extent to which it is punching above or below its weight.