Brexit and the €60bn question Dismantling Dodd-Frank China’s transgender Oprah A special report on mass entertainment FEBRUARY 11TH–17TH 2017 Courting Russia Can it end well? Contents The Economist February 11th 2017 3 5 The world this week Middle East and Africa 30 Israelis and Palestinians Leaders The ultimate fantasy 7 The Donald and the don 33 Trump and Iran Courting Putin Making Iran’s revolution great again 8 Israel and Donald Trump Build it and they will fight 33 Reality TV in Nigeria Big bother 8 Brexit’s cost Time to pick up the tab 34 Drugs and ivory Jumbo cartels 10 Dodd-Frank Brexit Britain is about to be The litter of the law hit with an eye-watering bill United States 11 Entertainment for leaving the European The paradox of choice 35 Presidential authority Union. It could blow up the On the cover Washington v Trump negotiations: leader, page 8. Donald Trump seeks a grand Letters 36 Satire Get ready for a bitter argument bargain with Vladimir Putin. Super soaking over money, page19.What 12 On shareholders, Australia, That is a terrible idea: leader, Britain’s negotiators could schools, California, data, 36 Legal migration page 7. Mr Trump’s idea of a learn from the plight of New pop, police, Latin Code red deal with Russia is Zealand, page 61 37 Political history delusional—but Mr Putin The little man’s big friends will welcome it all the same, Briefing pages16-18. Japan’s prime 40 Lexington 16 Russia and America French lessons minister cosies up to the Champions of the world new man in the White House, page 46. Ahead of Special report: elections, Iran’s radicals are Britain Mass entertainment enjoying a bust-up with 19 The Brexit bill Winner takes it all America, page 33. In Alabama From Brussels with love After page 40 support for Mr Trump 20 The British Empire followed a pattern that The art of leaving stretches back more than a The Americas century, page 37 21 Student loans A quick buck 41 NAFTA Reshape or shatter? Entertainment Consumers 21 The housing white paper have never had it so good. But The Economist Hardly groundbreaking 42 Green activism forget talk of democratising online Dying to defend the planet 22 Trade and health care entertainment: leader, page Daily analysis and opinion to NH$? 43 Political correctness 11. Technology has given supplement the print edition, plus Cleaning up Carnival billions of people access to a audio and video, and a daily chart 22 The war on seagulls Economist.com Fight them on the beaches vast range of content, yet they Asia still go mostly for the big hits. E-mail: newsletters and 23 Air pollution See our special report after mobile edition All choked up 44 Labour mobility in Asia page 40 Economist.com/email 24 Bagehot Waiting to make their Print edition: available online by The green-belt delusion move 7pm London time each Thursday 45 Guerrillas in the Economist.com/print Philippines Europe Audio edition: available online An extra mile 25 The Netherlands’ election to download each Friday 46 America and Japan Economist.com/audioedition Act “normal” or get out Fairway friends 26 Ukraine’s divided east 47 America and Australia Will it ever heal? Two short fuses 28 Corruption in Romania 47 Politics in Tamil Nadu People v pilferers Rank and bile 29 Charlemagne 48 Banyan Volume 422 Number 9027 Germany’s problematic India: country or continent? surplus Israel When Donald Trump Published since September1843 meets Binyamin Netanyahu to take part in "a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and next week, he should say that an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing land grabs make peace harder: our progress." leader, page 8. The chances for Editorial offices in London and also: peace were thin before Atlanta, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago, Lima, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Nairobi, America’s election; they look New Delhi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, even thinner today, page 30 São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, Washington DC 1 Contents continues overleaf 4 Contents The Economist February 11th 2017 China Science and technology 49 Reality television 66 Molecular biology China’s transgender Oprah Folding stuff 50 Unpopular Chinese films 67 Hans Rosling Blame the reviewers The joy of stats 50 Safety statistics 68 Materials science Accidental death of A film worth watching accuracy 68 Pollination Where the bee sucks International 69 Female genital China’s Oprah A transgender Proteins Shape determines a 51 Refugees and technology mutilation star of reality TV reveals a lot protein’s function. Determining Migrants with mobiles Culture wars about the country’s changing that shape, though, is tricky, social attitudes, page 49 page 66 Business Books and arts 53 Internet regulation 70 The edge of Europe Eroding exceptionalism Mapping history Subscription service 71 Subterranean animals For our full range of subscription offers, 54 American fashion retailing including digital only or print and digital Run ragged Undercover life combined visit 71 Why time flies Economist.com/offers 55 Snowmaking You can also subscribe by mail or telephone at White out Clock-watching the details provided below: 56 Grab v Uber 72 Civil wars Telephone: +44 (0) 845 120 0983 Road warriors Brother against brother Web: Economist.com/offers Post: The Economist 56 Tata Group 72 French fiction Subscription Centre, Board stiff The end of Eddy P.O. Box 471, Haywards Heath, 58 Schumpeter 73 Wolfgang Tillmans RH16 3GY Asian demography The world’s Shareholder democracy Fiery angel UK most populous continent struggles to match the supply Subscription for 1 year (51 issues) Print only UK – £145 of and demand for workers, Finance and economics 76 Economic and financial indicators page 44 59 Dodd-Frank Statistics on 42 economies, Shearing and shaving plus our monthly poll of Principal commercial offices: 60 Buttonwood 25 St James’s Street, London sw1a 1hg forecasters Tel: +44 (0) 20 7830 7000 Bubble troubles Rue de l’Athénée 32 61 Banking and the elderly Obituary 1206 Geneva, Switzerland Not losing it Tel: +4122 566 2470 78 Ken Morrison 61 Brexit 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10017 Grocer and proud of it Tel: +1212 5410500 The Kiwi precedent 1301Cityplaza Four, 62 North Korean data 12 Taikoo Wan Road, Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong Best guesses Tel: +852 2585 3888 63 China’s central bank Other commercial offices: Technically independent Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, Paris, San Francisco and Singapore Financial regulation Make the 63 Euro-zone bond markets rules simpler, by all means. But Unhappy birthday not at the expense of safety: 64 Data, financial services leader, page 10. The start of a and privacy long struggle to overhaul the Like? Dodd-Frank act, page 59. As 65 Free exchange America grows weary of dollar Donald Trump and the dominance, the world grows dollar standard nervous: Free exchange, page 65 PEFC certified This copy of The Economist is printed on paper sourced from sustainably managed forests certified by PEFC PEFC/16-33-582 www.pefc.org Registered as a newspaper. © 2017The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Printed by Wyndeham Peterborough Limited. The world this week The Economist February 11th 2017 5 intact. MPs from the opposi- almost 3,500 civilians were Amnesty International Politics tion Labour Party were or- killed and 7,900 injured in accused the Syrian govern- dered by its leader to support conflict-related violence in the ment ofhaving executed as it, deepening its internal rifts. country last year, the most many as13,000 people at a The bill now goes to the un- casualties since it began docu- prison north ofDamascus, elected House ofLords, which menting them in 2009. some aftertwo-minute trials. faced veiled threats about its abolition ifit amends or delays Members ofparliament in the legislation. Theresa May, Somalia cast ballots in a presi- the prime minister, has taken dential election held in an Britain a big step closer airport under the protection of towards the Brexit door. troops from the African Union. The poll followed another Man with a ban unorthodox one last year The Trump administration when 14,000 delegates who went to the federal appeals had been chosen by clan A Russian court reaffirmed the court to get its ban on refugees elders voted formembers of conviction for embezzlement and citizens from seven coun- the lower house. ofAlexei Navalny, the coun- tries reinstated, after a lower try’s most popular opposition court stayed it. The lower Scores ofpeople were killed by The president ofNigeria, politician. The conviction court’s decision allowed peo- avalanches in northern Muhammadu Buhari, extend- relates to business Mr Navalny ple who had been denied Afghanistan, but many remain ed what his office had said was conducted with a state timber entry to travel to the United trapped under the snow and a holiday in Britain formedical company, and is widely seen States. In a furious tweeting the toll is expected to rise. tests amid mounting concern as a pretext to disqualify him storm, Donald Trump ques- at home over his health. from running in the country’s tioned the judges’ impartiality. China’s participation in a presidential elections in 2018. conference at the Vatican on My way or the highway His initial conviction in 2013, Betsy DeVos was confirmed organ trafficking raised eye- Peru’s attorney-general or- just before his campaign in the by the Senate as Mr Trump’s brows.