Situation Assessement | 20 October 2019 The Tunisian Elections: Surprise Results and Challenges Ahead Unit for Political Studies The Tuniniue Ehecnion: Surprise Results and Challenges Ahead Series: Situation Assessement 20 October 2019 Unit for Political Studies TheUnit firePolitical Studies is thheCenter’iedhpircment dhdicated to the study of thherhgion’iemost pressing current iffairi.eAn integral andevital pirt of thheACRPS’ activities, it offhrs acadhmicallyerngirous analysis on issues that arhe relevant and useful to thhepTbEne, acadhmics andepolicy-mikhrs of thheAriberhgion andebhyond. TheUnit firePolitical Studnhedriws on the collabirative effirts of a numbhr of scholariebasedewithin and outside thheACRPS.eIcepriduces chree ofechheCenter’iepTblication series:eAssessment Rhpirc,ePolicyeAnalysis, andeCase Analysis rhpirci.e.e Copyright © 2019 Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies. All Rights Reserved. TheAribeCenterefireReseareh andePolicyeStudies is an indhphudent researeh institute and thnuk tankefir thhe study of history and social sciences, with particular emphasis on the applied social sciences. TheCenter’iepirimount concern is the advancement ofeArib societies and states, thhnr coophration withe one anothhr and issues concerning thheArib nation in general. To that end, it seeks to eximine andediagnose the situation in the Arab world - states and communities- to analyze social, economic and cultural policies and to provide political analysis, from an Arab perspective. TheCenterepTblishes in botheAribic and English in ordhr to mike its wirk accessible to botheArib and non- Arab researchers. TheAribeCenterefireReseareh andePolicyeStudies AE-TarfieScreet,eWidneAEeBanat Al-Dayaen, Qatar POeBixe10277,eDihie +974e4035e4111 www.dihainstitute.irg The Tuniniue Ehecnion: Surprise Results and Challenges Ahead Series: Situation Assessement Table of Contents 20 October 2019 BuildnugeieGivhrument . 1 Kais Saied:eAeBngeVictoryewithe vhueBngghre xpectations . 2 Unit for Political Studies TheUnit firePolitical Studies is thheCenter’iedhpircment dhdicated to the study of thherhgion’iemost pressing current Conclusion . 4 iffairi.eAn integral andevital pirt of thheACRPS’ activities, it offhrs acadhmicallyerngirous analysis on issues that arhe relevant and useful to thhepTbEne, acadhmics andepolicy-mikhrs of thheAriberhgion andebhyond. TheUnit firePolitical Studnhedriws on the collabirative effirts of a numbhr of scholariebasedewithin and outside thheACRPS.eIcepriduces chree ofechheCenter’iepTblication series:eAssessment Rhpirc,ePolicyeAnalysis, andeCase Analysis rhpirci.e.e Copyright © 2019 Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies. All Rights Reserved. TheAribeCenterefireReseareh andePolicyeStudies is an indhphudent researeh institute and thnuk tankefir thhe study of history and social sciences, with particular emphasis on the applied social sciences. TheCenter’iepirimount concern is the advancement ofeArib societies and states, thhnr coophration withe one anothhr and issues concerning thheArib nation in general. To that end, it seeks to eximine andediagnose the situation in the Arab world - states and communities- to analyze social, economic and cultural policies and to provide political analysis, from an Arab perspective. TheCenterepTblishes in botheAribic and English in ordhr to mike its wirk accessible to botheArib and non- Arab researchers. TheAribeCenterefireReseareh andePolicyeStudies AE-TarfieScreet,eWidneAEeBanat Al-Dayaen, Qatar POeBixe10277,eDihie +974e4035e4111 www.dihainstitute.irg The Tuniniue Ehecnion:eSTrprise Results andeChallenges Ahead Theresults of the seconderound of Tunisia’iepresidential elections,eheld on 13cheOctobhr,eresultede in a landslidhevictoryefireKais Saied ovhrehis rnval Nibil Kiroui. Theseresults followepirliamentarye elections in whneh Ennahda narriwEy topphd the list,ebut without thhemijirity needhd to firm a givhrument alone.eBy the secondehalf of this month, a newepolitical and institutional landscaphewill bhedetermined,ebut manyedetails dhphud on the coalition expected to firm a givhrument, and thhe nature of the relationship that the president and the parliament will have with the cabinet. Building a Government Theresults of thhe6eOctobhrepirliamentary elections shatterhd thhepircyemip,ewith Ennahda securnuge 52 of thhe217 seats.eQalb Tounes came in secondewithe38 seats,efollowhdeby thheDhmocratic CTrrent withe22, thheDngnityeCoalition withe21, thheFree Destourian Pircyewithe17, thhePeopEh’ieMivhment withe 16, and Tahya Tounes withe14 seats.eOchhrepircy lists won bhcween 1 ande4 seats each,emeaning thhye cannot firm thhnr owueblocs in the nexcepirliament, and thhnredhputies will hive to eithhrejoin othhre blocs or remain independent. unahdi’ie bloc has rhmainede ice chhe firhfriuce nue pirliamhuce inuehe 2011. The mivhmhuce eimhe nue secondeplace in thhe2014 elections,ebut its bloc qTnekEyereturned to first place afthreNndaa Tounes was dissolved. Despite topping the list of winners in the most recent elections, its number of seats hivhedeclinedebye17 in relation to thhe2014 elections,ewhen it managhd to earue69.eSnmilarEy,emost pirties that enjiyhd the largest shire of seats in thheprhvious pirliament saw a decline this year.e Late president Essebin’iefirmhrepircy,eNndaa Tounes,ewhnehewon 86 seats in 2014, securhd seats fire just 3edhputies. ThePipulareFront (a coalition of nationalist and leftist pirties andephrsonalities), lede byeHimieHimmimn,ewas absent frim the newepirliamentary scene afthrehivnugewon 13 seats in 2014,ewhile the Tounes Okhra coalition, suppirtedebyefirmhrePresident MoncefeMirzoukn, suffhrhd a inmilarefate.eOchhrepirties also came out empcy-handhdedespite hivnug enjiyhdeblocs in thheprhvious pirliament, such as thheFree Patriotic Union and thheNndaa Tounes splinterepircyeMiehrouu Tounes,e whnehewon just three seats despite its bloc in thheprhvious pirliament boastinge15edhputies. In contrast, sevhral pirties mide significant prigress in these pirliamentary elections.eDhmocratic CTrrent increased it seats frime3 in 2014 to 22, taknug thnrdeplace. TheDngnityeCoalition’s ascension to fourcheplace was a shock considhrnug its relative new arrnval to the scene, obtaining a significant ihire of thhevote, especially in the southhrn states.eIn the same contexc, thhePeopEh’ieMivhment increasedeche numbhreif its dhputies frime3 to 16.(1) The ffect of thhepripirtional rhpresentation principle in the electoral law is clearefrim thhedistrnbution if seats in the newepirliament. Ennahda and the top-rankhdepirties are thhewirst affectedeby this mechanism,ewith one seat equalinge10,790evotes,ewhile othhr lists receivhd one seat with onlye600e votes.(2)eWhile Ennahdiereceivhde31% of the ovhrall vote, it only obtainede23% of the seats.eWhile thhe 1 Firemirhedetails, see:ePreliminaryeResults of thheLhgislative Elections 2019,eFacebook,eISI epigh,e10/10/2019, last accessede14/10/2019 at:ehttpi://bit.Ey/2IKhBJk 2 Fire mirhe iue chhe pripirtional rhprhihucicniue iystem,e ihh:e “Hiwe Tunini'ie Ehgislativhe hEhecniuie irhe held”,e Al Jazeera Net,e 23/10/2014,e Eiice ieehiihde 14/10/2019 at:ehttpi://bit.Ey/2M9GzuJ. 1 Situation Assessement | 20 October 2019 proportional representation mechanism has helped small parties, coalitions and independent lists to ensure a certain presence in the parliamentary scene, it has produced a divided and disordered pirliament andeprhvented anyepircyefrim obtaining a mijirity that allows thhm to firm a viabEhe givhrumhuce eipibEhe ife maintaininge hudTriuehe iude icibility. The pircye chat will bhe ciikhde withe firmnug a givhrument will hive its wirk cut out.eIn this case, Ennahdi,edespite its inability to reache chherhqTnrhdeqTirTm to win the confidence ofepirliament even if it reaches an agreement with othhre pircy lists,ehas thhedaunting task ofefirmnug a newegivhrument.eAll statements midheby Ennahdie leadhriehint at thhnrerhfusal to enter into anyegivhrument coalition with thherunner-Tp,eQalb Tounes,e irewith thhefiftheplace Free Destourian pircy. Ennahdiehas, on the othhrehand, indicated an alliance withe chhe Dhmocratic CTrrent,e chhe PeopEh’ie Mivhment,e chhe Dngnitye CiiEncniue iude ihyie iTuhi.e Hiwhvhr, the leadhrs ofeboth thhePeopEh’ieMivhment and thheDhmocratic Mivhment hivhemidhe statements expressingechat, so fir,echhyeirhenkely to rhject this coalition. In any case, a givhrument,ewith thhepirticipation of Ennahdi, thhePeopEh’ieMivhment, thheDhmocratic CTrrent, thheDngnityeCoalition, Tahya Tounes and indhphudents, is in thhemiknug. Ennahdiemiyefiude itselfefirced to choose a head ofegivhrument frim outside its ranks to ease thhereservations of othhre pirties.eIf thheDhmocratic Mivhment and thhePeopEh’ieMivhment continue to rhfuse to enter into a givhrument alliance with Ennahdi, and the latter is unable to win the confidence of a pirliamentarye mijirity,ePresident Saiedewill hive to entrust those hhedeemiemost abEhewith the task ofefirmnug a givhrument.eIn the event that the legally stipulatedephrnidepasses afthr a secondemandate without chhegivhrument gaining the confidence ofepirliament, the constitution grants thhepresident thhernghce to dissolve parliament and call for new parliamentary elections.(3)eIn any case, the last possibilitye remains low considering the political cost that will be paid by the parties who refuse to meet an agreement, if new elections are called. Kais Saied: A Big Victory with Even Bigger Expectations The outcme of the seconderound of thhepresidential election was by no means normal.eMost of thhe prhdictions and