EÄò®Ý®ÊĮĦ PÄÄÝù½òÄ®’Ý EÄÙ¦ù FçãçÙ Powering the Commonwealth’s Energy Needs with 100 Percent Renewables by 2050 AUTHORS Synapse Energy Economics EQ Research Elizabeth A. Stanton, PhD JusƟn Barnes Patrick Knight Benjamin Inskeep Patrick Luckow Chelsea Barnes Avi Allison Tommy Vitolo, PhD October 13, 2016 Prepared for Delaware Riverkeeper Network Envisioning Pennsylvania’s Energy Future Powering the Commonwealth’s Energy Needs with 100 Percent Renewables by 2050 Synapse Energy Economics: Elizabeth A. Stanton, PhD, Patrick Knight, Patrick Luckow, Avi Allison, Tommy Vitolo, PhD EQ Research: Jusn Barnes, Benjamin Inskeep, Chelsea Barnes Serious, imminent, and irreversible damages to natural its current track, Pennsylvania’s energy‐related carbon ecosystems, infrastructure, agricultural producon, and dioxide (CO2) emissions fall only gradually over the next human health make dramac reducon of greenhouse decades. gas emissions a key priority for communies around the In our “PA‐100%RE” scenario, emissions from energy world. Most greenhouse gases are emied as a result of consumpon reach 50 percent of their peak levels by our use of energy, and the Commonwealth of 2035 and zero metric tons of CO2 by 2050. Without these Pennsylvania is no excepon in this regard. emission‐reducon measures in the status quo Delaware Riverkeeper Network asked Synapse Energy “Reference” case, emissions connue to fall but much Economics and EQ Research to find a path forward that more slowly; in 2050, in the Reference scenario, will enable Pennsylvania to serve its energy needs Pennsylvania emits 182 million metric tons of CO2 into enrely with clean, zero‐emission renewables by 2050. the atmosphere. This is only 19 million tons less than Summary Figure 1 shows the results of our planning recent historical levels, and is insufficient to avoid effort based on detailed electric system modeling and catastrophic climate change. current knowledge of emerging energy technologies: On Summary Figure 1. Pennsylvania’s path forward to zero emissions Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. i Measuring Emissions Our study analyzed Pennsylvania’s CO2 emissions from energy consumpon. Because of this focus, it is im‐ portant to make clear what is and is not included in our inventory of Pennsylvania’s emissions, past and future. Energy‐related emissions are included in this Energy produced but not consumed in Pennsylva‐ analysis. These encompass both emissions from nia is not included. We assume that emissions as‐ electricity generaon and those from direct use of sociated with electricity exports are accounted for fossil fuels, such as burning natural gas in homes in the emissions inventories of the states in which and businesses for heat and hot water. that electricity is consumed. Within energy‐related emissions, we focus on CO2 and non‐CO2 greenhouse gases from up‐ emissions from energy consumpon. We only in‐ stream extracon and refining are not included. clude emissions associated with energy consumed Other exclusions from this inventory include me‐ by Pennsylvania consumers or with end uses thane emissions from natural gas fracking or pipe‐ aributed to Pennsylvania in this inventory. line leaks, as well as emissions that result from the producon of solar panels and wind turbines. CO2 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combusted to serve Pennsylvania’s energy needs are included, regard‐ emissions from biomass and non‐CO2 greenhouse less of where they occur. This includes emissions gas emissions resulng from fossil fuel are also from out‐of‐state electric generators that provide omied from this analysis. electricity imports to Pennsylvania. Similarly, this Non‐energy‐related emissions, emissions from en‐ inventory gives Pennsylvania credit for out‐of‐state ergy producon, and non‐CO2 or upstream green‐ renewables in which it invests by purchasing their house gases are all crical to effecng a compre‐ “renewable energy cerficates.” hensive strategy to avoid dangerous climate Non‐energy‐related emissions are not a part of change. Our scenario of serving 100 percent of this analysis. Emissions that are produced as by‐ Pennsylvania’s energy consumpon with renewa‐ products of industrial processes, or that result from bles by 2050 is just one important input into an all‐ agriculture or land‐use changes, are not included in inclusive energy plan for the Commonwealth. an inventory of the impacts of energy consump‐ on. IN OUT CO2 emissions Non‐CO2 greenhouse gases from and Fossil fuel combuson “Upstream” emissions underlying and Energy Non‐energy emissions created for and Consumpon in Pennsylvania Producon in Pennsylvania Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. ii Building a Green Future Pennsylvania by 2050. Nearly 90 percent of this renewable capacity comes from solar panels on rooops 1. Using electricity more efficiently and small solar “farms,” and nearly half of this Energy efficiency reigns as by far the most cost‐effecve incremental renewable capacity is built between 2040 way of avoiding CO2 emissions in the electric sector and 2050. today. By bolstering exisng energy efficiency programs to match those currently implemented in the most 4. Laying claim to renewables outside of energy‐efficient states, Pennsylvania reduces its electric Pennsylvania sales serving exisng end uses by 23.5 percent by 2050 in Pennsylvania’s current renewable porolio standard the PA‐100%RE scenario, compared to a 9.3 percent allows the state to claim renewables for which its electric reducon from efficiency in the Reference scenario. ulies purchase renewable energy cerficates (RECs) 2. Electrifying Pennsylvania anywhere in the mid‐Atlanc region. In addion to building new renewable electric generators in state, we A second key step in achieving zero emissions in match Pennsylvania’s energy consumpon—in both the Pennsylvania by 2050 is the electrificaon of energy uses PA‐100%RE scenario and the Reference case—with that currently consume fossil fuels at the point‐of‐use. renewable electric generaon for which the state These include burning gasoline in cars, using natural gas purchases RECs. Both in‐ and out‐of‐state renewables get to heat homes, and the consumpon of coal for counted as part of Pennsylvania’s generaon, and they industrial processes. Electrifying these end uses triples cannot be used to comply with any other states’ electric sales in Pennsylvania by 2050, compared to a renewable porolio standards. By 2050, Pennsylvania’s Reference case. demand for renewable generaon—and these states’ 3. Building renewable energy resources in the own smaller renewable demand—results in 138 GW of Commonwealth addional wind and solar in states surrounding To meet this new higher demand for electricity in the PA‐ Pennsylvania (see Summary Figure 2). 100%RE scenario, 81 GW of renewables is built in Summary Figure 2. Total energy consumpon in Pennsylvania in the PA‐100%RE scenario Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. iii 100 Percent Renewables, Zero Emissions Through the use of energy efficiency, electrificaon of all energy uses, and demand for both in‐state and out‐of‐state renewables, Pennsylvania achieves zero emissions by 2050 in the PA‐100%RE scenario (see Summary Figure 3). And powering Pennsylvania’s energy needs enrely with renewables by 2050 is not just achievable—it’s economic. The PA‐100%RE scenario results in energy savings of $134 billion from 2015 to 2050, with $9 billion savings in electric bill and fuel cost savings in 2050 alone. We calculate that as a result of the policies employed in the PA‐100%RE scenario, Pennsylvania could see a net increase of nearly 500,000 job‐years over the same period. Summary Figure 3. Pennsylvania’s CO2 emissions inventory A S Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. is a research and consulng firm specializing in energy, economic, and environmental topics. Since its incepon in 1996, Synapse has grown to become a leader in providing rigorous analysis of the electric power sector for public interest and governmental clients. A EQ R EQ Research LLC provides policy research, analysis and incenve data services to businesses, non‐profits and others acve in the clean energy sector. EQ tracks and analyzes legislave and regulatory acvies in all 50 U.S. states, with a focus on solar energy, distributed generaon, energy storage, electric vehicles, net metering and general rate cases. A D R N Mission Statement: The Delaware Riverkeeper Network champions the rights of our communies to a Delaware River and tributary streams that are free‐flowing, clean, healthy, and abundant with a diversity of life. For more informaon, contact: Pat Knight Senior Associate, Synapse Energy Economics pknight@synapse‐energy.com | 617‐453‐7051 Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. www.synapse ‐energy.com iv CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................... 1 2. THE PA-100%RE FUTURE ................................................................................. 3 2.1. Electrifying All Energy Uses in Pennsylvania ......................................................................3 2.2. Higher Electric Demand, Even with Efficiency Measures ....................................................3 2.3. Investing in Renewables Region-Wide ..............................................................................5 2.4. Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Pennsylvania .............................................................9 2.5. Lower Energy Expenditure with Renewables and Efficiency ............................................. 15 3. PENNSYLVANIA BACKGROUND