PAKISTAN-CHINA RELATIONS IN THE POST-COLD WAR PERIOD: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS A dissertation submitted to the School of Politics and International Relations (SPIR), Quaid-i-Azam University (QAU), Islamabad In partial fulfillment of requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations By TALAT SHABBIR School of Politics and International Relations Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad 2017 Author’s Declaration I, Talat Shabbir hereby state that my PhD thesis titled “Pakistan-China Relations in the Post-Cold War Period: Regional and Global Implications” is my own work and has not been submitted previously for taking any degree from Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad Or anywhere else in the country/world. At any time if my statement is found to be incorrect even after I graduate, the university has the right to withdraw my PhD degree. Talat Shabbir Date:21.12.2017 Plagiarism Undertaking I solemnly declare that the research work presented in the thesis titled “Pakistan-China Relations in the Post-Cold War period: Regional and Global Implications” is solely my research work with no significant contribution from any other person. Small contribution / help wherever taken has been duly acknowledged and that complete thesis has been written by me. I understand the zero tolerance policy of the HEC, Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad towards plagiarism. Therefore I, as an author of the above titled thesis declare that no portion of my thesis has been plagiarized and any material used as reference is properly referred /cited. I undertake that if I am found guilty of any formal plagiarism in the above titled thesis even after the award of PhD degree, the university reserves the right to withdraw/revoke my PhD degree and that HEC and the University has the right to publish my name on the HEC/University website on which names of the students are placed who submitted plagiarized thesis. Student/Author Signature: ___________________ (Talat Shabbir) DEDICATION To my beloved wife Naheed Talat CONTENTS Acknowledgements i Abbreviations iii Abstract v Map vi INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER ONE: THEORETICAL AND CONCEPTUAL ANALYSIS 34 1.1. Realism 1.2. Complex Interdependence CHAPTER TWO: PAKISTAN-CHINA RELATIONS (1949-1990): 66 A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 2.1. Phase of Reluctance and Aversion (1949-1961) 2.2. Phase of Reconciliation and Empathy (1962-1978) 2.3. Phase of Friendship and Cordiality (1979-1990) CHAPTER THREE: PAKISTAN-CHINA RELATIONS IN THE 102 POST-COLD WAR ERA: 1990-2016 3.1. Political Dimension of Pakistan-China Relations: 1990-2016 3.2. Strategic Dimension of Pakistan-China Relations: 1990-2016 3.3. Economic Dimension of Pakistan-China Relations: 1990-2016 CHAPTER FOUR: PAKISTAN-CHINA RELATIONS: REGIONAL 140 IMPLICATIONS 4.1. Pakistan’s and China’s India Centric Perspective 4.2. Pakistan-China-India-Afghanistan-Iran: Emerging Dimensions 4.3. Regional Imperatives of Pakistan-China Relations CHAPTER FIVE: PAKISTAN-CHINA RELATIONS: GLOBAL 181 IMPLICATIONS 5.1. Emerging Global Political Order in the Post 9/11 Era 5.2. India-US Strategic Partnership and Pakistan-China Relations 5.3. US Containment of China Strategy: Impact on Pakistan-China Relations CHAPTER SIX: SURVEY AND DATA ANALYSIS 217 6.1. Rationale for the Survey 6.2. Types of the Samples of the Survey 6.3. Survey Questionnaire and Summary of the Data 6.4. Likert Scale 6.5. Description and Analysis of the Survey CONCLUSION 239 BIBLIOGRAPHY 254 FIGURES Figure 1.1.1. Dimension of Realism 44 Figure 1.2.1. Characteristics of Complex Interdependence 56 Figure 1.2.2. Multiple Channels of Complex Interdependence 60 Figure 2 Phases of History of Pakistan-China Relations (1949-1990) 78 GRAPHS Graph 6.5.1. The Samples of the Gender Balance 219 Graph 6.5.2. Sample Representations of the Respondents - Age 220 Graph 6.5.3. Sample Representations of the Respondents – Qualification 221 Graph 6.5.4. Sample Representations of the Respondents - Profession 222 Graph 6.5.5. Response on Question Number One of Sample Survey 223 Graph 6.5.6. Response on Question Number Two of Sample Survey 224 Graph 6.5.7. Response on Question Number Three of Sample Survey 225 Graph 6.5.8. Response on Question Number Four of Sample Survey 226 Graph 6.5.9. Response on Question Number Five of Sample Survey 227 Graph 6.5.10. Response on Question Number One on the Basis of Qualification 228 Graph 6.5.11. Response on Question Number Two on the Basis of Qualification 229 Graph 6.5.12. Response on Question Number Three on the Basis of Qualification 230 Graph 6.5.13. Response on Question Number Four on the Basis of Qualification 231 Graph 6.5.14. Response on Question Number Five on the basis of Qualification 232 Graph 6.5.15. Response on Question Number One on the Basis of Profession 233 Graph 6.5.16. Response on Question Number Two on the Basis of Profession 234 Graph 6.5.17. Response on Question Number Three on the Basis of Profession 235 Graph 6.5.18. Response on Question Number Four on the Basis of Profession 236 Graph 6.5.19. Response on Question Number Five on the Basis of Profession 237 MAPS Map 1: China Pakistan Economic Corridor Road Alignment 275 Map 2: China Pakistan Economic Corridor Space Layout 276 Map 3: Belt and Road Initiative Six Economic Corridors 277 APPENDICES Appendix A: The Boundary Agreement between China and Pakistan – 1963 278 Appendix B: Agreement/MoUs Signed during Visit of Chinese President 283 (CPEC) Appendix C: Text of 123 Agreement between India and US 288 Appendix D: Survey Questionnaire 300 Appendix E: Summary of Survey Data obtained 302 Appendix F: Question for Interview 306 i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My gratitude goes to Dr. Lubna Abid Ali for her patient guidance, insightful comments and continued support. Her invaluable patronage and incessant encouragement has made this thesis possible. I am deeply thankful for the amount of time she has invested in my work and the care with which she has gone through each chapter of my dissertation. I am also indebted to Dr. Nazir Hussain, Director, School of Politics and International Relations, my teachers and administrative staff at SPIR who have greatly supported me during my years in the university. My special gratitude to Dr. Mavara Inayat, who has been my guide and support during long years of my dissertation writing. I owe my gratitude to Professor Sikander Mehdi who has been my guide and mentor since 2007 and has been a great intellectual support over the years. My thanks are also due to Lt Col Mohammad Rafique who has helped me with SPSS and in my quantitative input in the dissertation. I owe special thanks to Abid Khan, National Defense University Library, Islamabad, Mohammad Naveed FC College Lahore, library staff at Quiad-i-Azam University, National library and National Archives of Pakistan. I owe gratitude to the staff of Sigur Centre for Asian Studies, George Washington University, Washington DC where I have spent nearly five months as a visiting scholar and interacted with scholars from across the world with diverse expertise and knowledge. I owe special thanks to Mr. Khalid Khan, a very close friend who placed his office staff and resources at my disposal which enabled me to shape this dissertation. Special thanks to resourceful Mr. Mohammad Saleem for his administrative support. Special thanks to Ms. Bushra Mushtaq Khan for helping me obtain a measure of perfection to figures and graphs that have been affixed in the dissertation. On a personal note, my heart aches for my late father Shabbir Hussain Bhatti who believed in me and encouraged me all his life. He remains a source of my inspiration ii even after his death. Thanks are also due to my beloved mother who has always had a keen interest in completion of my dissertation and prayed for my success. Mention must be made of my sisters and brothers: Yasmin Khan and her family, Nazneen Akhtar and her family, Azmat Shabbir and his family and Anjum Shabbir who encouraged me to complete the dissertation soon. Special gratitude is also due to my wife Naheed, daughter Ayesha Shabbir and son Mohammad Umar Shabbir for their unconditional support. Long hours that I have spent in my laborious research work, detached from their needs made it as much my achievement as theirs. My family has been a continuous source of strength for me. Talat Shabbir iii ABBREVIATIONS APC Armored Personnel Carrier ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BRI Belt and Road Initiative BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa CBM Confidence Building Measures CENTO Central Treaty Organization CIA Central Intelligence Agency CPC Communist Party of China CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor CPFTA China Pakistan Free Trade Agreement CTBT Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty DTMB Digital Terrestrial Multimedia Broadcast EAS East Asia Summit EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investments FIEO Federation of Indian Export Organizations FMCT Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty FTA Free Trade Agreement GWOT Global War on Terror HIT Heavy Industries Taxila IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IMF International Monitory Fund ISSI Institute of Strategic Studies JI Jamaat i Islami JUI (F) Jamiat Ulmaaye Islam (Fazal-ur-Rehman) JWG Joint Working Group KANUPP Karachi Nuclear Power Plant KKH Karakoram Highway KMT Kuomintang KP Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa KRL Khan Research Laboratories LAC Line of Actual Control LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba LOC Line of Control MBT Main Battle Tank MFN Most Favored Nation MNC Multi-National Companies MODP Ministry of Defense Production MoU Memorandum of Understanding MTCR Missile Technology