Market Update th 19 Decem ber 2018 USE ALSI Close: 1,645.63 Previous: 1,674.57 (Down: 16.79% YTD) - USD/UGX: 3,689.63 Previous: 3,695.42 (Down: 1.50% YTD) USE ALSI* Key Statistics: Close 1,645.63 Market Synopsis: 1D* % Change (1.72) Market activity reduced today as turnover generated closed at Ugx41.74Mn ($11,312) below MTD* % Change (4.50) Ugx129.67Mn ($35,089) at the close of yesterday’s trading session. Stanbic Bank Uganda YTD* % Change (16.79) remained attractive as it contributed 89.48% of market turnover. The lender traded at Ugx31 52 Week Range 1,645.63 – 2,264.50 Volume 1.22Mn per share realizing Ugx37.35Mn in turnover. Umeme traded at a stable Ugx320 making Turnover (ugx) 41.74Mn($11,312) Ugx3.88Mn in turnover. New Vision Printing and Publishing company and NIC Holdings PE 6.86 made a collective Ugx0.51Mn as shares traded at Ugx339 and Ugx14 per share. The ALSI EPS 60.85 reduced to 1,645.63 whereas the C9 closed at 149.03 at the end of today’s trading session. Dividend Yield 2.1% Headlines: Market Cap (Ugx) 23,333.43Bn ($6,323.71Mn) Negotiate extension of Umeme concession, Museveni directs: The President Museveni has instructed Energy minister Irene Muloni to commence negotiations to extend Umeme’s USE ALSI*- USE All Share Index, 1D*- One Day, MTD*- Month to Date, YTD*- Year to Date Source: Uganda Securities Exchange, Blomberg power distribution concession, which is due to expire in 2025. This directive was issued through a November 28 letter that the Daily Monitor has seen. It follows a call for him to address the 2,300 USE ALSI INDEX - 12 months 2,250 matter before he switches on Isimba and Karuma hydropower plants in order to restore certainty in Uganda’s electricity sector. “I have received information that the delay in starting 2,200 negotiations on the Umeme concession is affecting the market,” Mr Museveni wrote. He said 2,150 any developments that might delay the negotiations should be brought to his attention. Ms 2,100 Muloni neither picked this reporter’s calls nor responded to the text messages asking her for 2,050 comment. On March 12, Mr Museveni had stepped on the concession extension brakes. He argued then that the 2005 ‘concession was messed up by certain elements’ in the Energy 2,000 ministry. It is as a result of the mess – inflating the level of energy losses and agreeing to a 20 1,950 per cent return on investment (ROI) that Uganda’s retail power tariffs were high, he said. 1,900 During an interview on December 17, Mr Patrick Bitature, Umeme’s board chairman, said the 1,850 President’s March 12 letter ‘was like a court injunction’. “Shareholders thought the President 1,800 had said terminate the concession, which was not true,” Mr Bitature said in Kampala. “Investors do not like uncertainty,” Mr Bitature added. It is not clear when the negotiations on 1,750 a post-2025 concession will commence. (Daily Monitor) 1,700 Uganda to get national payment systems law next year, says BoU: After wide 1,650 consultations on the National Payment Bill 2018, the Bank of Uganda is optimistic that Uganda 1,600 will have a National Payment system law next year, which is more modern, efficient and flexible to players in the financial services and the general public. The central bank believes that a national payment system is one of the principal components of a country’s monetary and financial system. Similarly, actors in the financial subsector say it is through the national payment system that money is transferred between buyers and sellers in commercial and Source: Uganda Securities Exchange financial transactions. If done well, the national payment system can reduce transaction costs Crested 9 Price Snapshot: and expand the opportunities for commercial and financial transactions in an economy. The Bank of Uganda says the national payment system is central to the effective implementation of Close 52 Week Range YTD % Ch. monetary policy using money market transactions to influence overall financial and economic C9 149.04 118.98– 158.15 24.07 activity. In addition, it forecasts that developments in the payment system can affect the speed BATU 30,000 30,000 – 30,000 0.00 BOBU 140 100 – 160 23.89 and predictability of the turnover of monetary balances, which may influence the overall DFCU 822.97 680 – 970 21.02 demand for money in the economy. Addressing a validation workshop on the National CQCIL 230 230– 262 (10.33) Payment Systems (NPS) Bill at Imperial Royal Hotel on Monday, director payment system NIC 14.00 12.00 – 19.70 16.67 department Bank of Uganda, Mr Mackay Aomu, said the central bank has finished doing wide NVL 336 330 – 520 (34.75) consultation on the National Payment System Bill and included the concerns of all those SBU 31.00 27 – 33 13.76 involved in payments system in Uganda. (Daily Monitor) UCL 19.19 19.00 – 30 (34.95) Forex Outlook: The Ugandan shilling was slightly stronger on Wednesday, on the back of an UMEM 320.00 300– 410 (20.00) interbank sell off as some players sought to pare their hard currency positions. The shilling was *C8 is Crested 8 Local companies Index quoted at 3,686/3,696. (Source: Reuters) Regional Counters: Macro Indicators: Close 52 Week Range YTD % Ch. (%) Period NSE 20 2,779.25 2,708.56– 3,862.27 (25.12) Inflation (Year on Year) 3.00 Ended November 2018 BRITAM (Kshs) 10.15 10.10– 15.80 (23.97) Central Bank Rate (CBR) 10.0 05/12/18 SAF (Kshs) 23.00 22.05–32.75 (14.01) Bank Rate 15.0 05/12/18 KA (Kshs) 8.50 7.39– 17.99 (51.60) 91-day T-Bill 10.80 05/12/18 NSE (Kshs) 14.65 13.60 – 22.65 (25.63) 182-day T-Bill 12.00 05/12/18 BRL (Rwf) 144 143– 155 (4.00) 364-day T-Bill 12.75 05/12/18 BOK (Rwf) 279 279 – 300 (7.00) CTL (Rwf) 52 52 – 67 (21.21) Forex Close Prev. YTD % Ch. Sources: Crested Research, Uganda Securities Exchange, Nairobi Securities Exchange, GBP/UGX 4,653.00 4,664.93 25.17 Rwanda Securities Exchange, Bank of Uganda, Bloomberg EUR/UGX 4,183.01 4,196.37 3.72 KEN/UGX 36.05 36.05 (2.44) CRESTEDCAPITAL RESEARCH CONTACT TZS/UGX 1.61 1.61 0.62 Impala House 1st Floor, Plot 13/15 Kimathi Avenue Hotline: +256 414 230900 RWF/UGX 4.28 4.25 3.38 @: [email protected], W: www.crestedcapital.com DISCLAIMER: The information contained herein is obtained from sources, which to the best of our knowledge are reliable. As such, we are not responsible or liable for any factual errors arising thereof. The opinions expressed herein are ours and are subject to change anytime without notice. .