UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE Opposing Movement Strategy, Critical Events, and Policy Change: How the Gun Control and Gun Rights Movements Capitalize on Mass Shootings DISSERTATION submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Sociology by Eulalie Ida Jean Laschever Dissertation Committee: Professor David S. Meyer, Chair Professor Charles Ragin Professor David Snow 2017 © 2017 Eulalie Laschever DEDICATION For my family: Eulalie Sullivan, Eric Laschever, Beth Laschever, and Max Friedman And for all the victims of gun violence. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ v LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................ vii CURRICULUM VITAE .............................................................................................................. viii ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION .................................................................................... xiv INTRODUCTION: CAPITALIZING ON ATTENTION-GRABBING EVENTS ....................... 1 The Politics of Attention ..................................................................................................... 1 Contending with Opponents ............................................................................................... 3 Organizational Strategy and Venue Selection .................................................................... 3 Organizational and Contextual Constraints on Movement Strategy................................... 7 The Sandy Hook Shooting and American Gun Politics.................................................... 11 Overview of the Dissertation ............................................................................................ 14 CHAPTER 1: EVENTS AND THE POLITICAL AND CULTURAL CONTEXT .................... 18 An Opportunity or a Threat? ............................................................................................. 18 Examining the Political and Cultural Context .................................................................. 18 American Gun Politics in Comparative Context .............................................................. 20 The Evolution of American Gun Politics.......................................................................... 23 The Sandy Hook Shooting, a Critical Event for Gun Politics .......................................... 39 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 45 CHAPTER 2: EVENTS AND ORGANIZATIONAL CAPACITY ............................................ 47 An Opportunity for Whom? .............................................................................................. 47 Examining Organizational Capacity ................................................................................. 47 Gun Control Organizations ............................................................................................... 52 Gun Rights Organizations ................................................................................................. 56 Increased Organizational Capacity After Sandy Hook ..................................................... 60 Assessing Organizational Strategy ................................................................................... 70 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 75 CHAPTER 3: MAXIMIZING EVENT OPPORTUNITIES ........................................................ 77 Capitalizing on an Opportunity ......................................................................................... 77 Flooding Favorite Venues After a Critical Event ............................................................. 81 Primed to Act, But Where to Go? ..................................................................................... 86 iii Organizational Strategy at the End of the Sandy Hook Moment...................................... 89 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 92 CHAPTER 4: MINIMIZING THREATENING EVENTS .......................................................... 95 Minimizing a Threat ......................................................................................................... 95 Picking Your Battles, and Playing to Your Strengths....................................................... 99 Staying the Course, With Small Shifts ........................................................................... 102 Organizational Strategy at the End of the Sandy Hook Moment.................................... 105 Differences from Pre-Sandy-Hook Strategy? ................................................................. 110 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 111 CHAPTER 5: STATE LEGISLATIVE OUTCOMES ............................................................... 114 State Legislative Consequences of Shifting Contextual and Organizational Conditions 114 Why Laws Sometimes Change ....................................................................................... 115 Politically Mediated Impact ............................................................................................ 118 The Analytical Advantages of Qualitative Comparative Analysis ................................. 118 Operationalizing Causal Conditions and Outcomes ....................................................... 120 More State-Level Legislative Change After Sandy Hook .............................................. 125 Conditions for Legislative Change Before Sandy Hook................................................. 127 Conditions for Legislative Change After Sandy Hook ................................................... 129 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 134 CONCLUSION: MAXIMIZING GAINS AND MINIMIZING LOSSES BY TARGETING CERTAIN VENUES .................................................................................................................. 137 What Kind of Opportunity? ............................................................................................ 137 An Opportunity for Whom? ............................................................................................ 138 An Opportunity for What? .............................................................................................. 139 Maximizing Gains: Side Benefits, Reevaluating, and Targeting Select State Contexts . 141 Minimizing Losses: Obstruction, Mobilization, and Targeting Select State Contexts ... 142 National Movements Targeting State Legislative Venues .............................................. 143 Avenues for Future Research .......................................................................................... 144 Gun Politics Going Forward ........................................................................................... 145 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 147 iv LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1 Google Trends Interest in the Subject of "Gun Control," Jan 2011 to Dec 2014 13 Figure 2 Cross-National Comparison, Firearms per 100 People, 2007 21 Figure 3 Cross-National Comparison, Rates of Firearms-Related Deaths per 100,000 People 22 Figure 4 Number of New York Times Articles Referencing “Gun Violence,” 1945 – 2016 29 Figure 5 Percent of Americans Who Believe "The Laws Covering the Sale of Firearms Should be Made ‘More Strict,’” or Not, 1975 – 2014 31 Figure 6 Percent of Households with a Gun, 1972 – 2014 34 Figure 7 NICS Background Checks Performed and Firearms Manufactured per 1,000 People, 1986 - 2014 35 Figure 8 Articles in the New York Times Referencing "Gun Violence," "Gun Control," and "Gun Rights," January 2011 – December 2014 40 Figure 9 Public Attention to "Gun Control," "Gun Violence," and "Gun Rights,” January 2011 – December 2014 43 Figure 10 Percent of Americans Who Think it is More Important to "Protect the Right of Americans to Own Guns," verses "Control Gun Ownership," January 2011 – December 2014 44 v LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 Historic Firearms Legislation and Partisan Government Control 37 Table 2 Organizational Revenue, 2011 – 2014 61 Table 3 Organizational Staff Members, 2011 – 2014 63 Table 4 Organizational Volunteers, 2011 – 2014 64 Table 5 State Chapters and Local Affiliates, 2011 – 2014 66 Table 6 Number of New York Times Articles that Referenced Each Organization, 2011 – 2014 68 Table 7 Number of Organizational Press Communications Issued Annually, 2011 – 2014 71 Table 8 Components of an Agenda Item 72 Table 9 Total Agenda Items per Year, 2011 – 2014 73 Table 10 Changes to State Firearms Restrictions in the 2011 – 2012 Legislative Session and the 2013 – 2014 Legislative Session 125 Table 11 Conditions Under Which States Tightened or Relaxed Firearms Restrictions During the 2011-2012 Legislative Session 127 Table 12 Conditions Under Which States Tightened or Relaxed Firearms