22 The Open Demography Journal, 2011, 4, 22-33 Open Access Immigration and its Effects on Demographic Change in Spain Richard R. Verdugo1,* and David Swanson2 1National Education Association, Washington, DC. USA 2Department of Sociology, University of California at Riverside, Riverside, California, USA Abstract: The question we attempt to answer in our paper is, “Does immigration have an impact on demographic change in Spain?” We chose Spain for our analysis for a number of reasons, but the two most important are, the significant in- crease in the immigration population in Spain, especially in the past decade, and the complexities involved in finding an answer to our research question would be overwhelming if two or more nations were to be examined. So a case study seemed a reasonable alternative. Our analysis involves examining fertility, mortality, and population growth between immigrants, non-immigrants, and the total Spanish population over time. In a second analysis we use a simple difference equation in evaluating the direct im- pact of immigration on population change in Spain. Our findings suggest, for the period covered in our study, that immi- grants have had and are having a significant impact on demographic change in Spain. Keywords: Mortality, fertility, immigration, demographic change, Spain. I. INTRODUCTION demographic change. Moreover, results from such a research endeavor may be used as a benchmark in comparing other The challenge of demographics can be daunting. Many European nations. In our study, we focus on Spain. Western European countries are being challenged by issues related to immigration and how they affect demographic Why Spain? There are three reasons why we chose Spain change [1, 2]. Along with fertility and mortality, immigra- for our analysis. First, Spain has a large immigrant popula- tion forms an important tripartite defining the concept demo- tion that comprised nearly 9 percent of its population in graphic change. 2008. Spain has only recently experienced significant growth in its immigrant population, since about 1995/96, in fact. Faced with low fertility rates, declining mortality rates, Prior to those years, especially in the 1950s and 1960s, Spain and a serious need for labor in order to support an ageing and was primarily a sending rather than a receiving country [2, 5- declining population, some European countries, especially 8]. So it is an opportune time for examining the impact im- those in Western Europe, have turned to immigrants as a migration is having on demographic change in Spain. Sec- way of meeting their labor needs. In the 1950s, some Euro- ond, the immigrant population in Spain is very diverse, with pean countries sought agreements with such countries as immigrants coming from South America, Morocco, and Italy, Greece, Turkey, and a few Eastern European nations as Eastern Europe [3]. (Though, we should point out we do not a strategy to fill important unskilled or semi-skilled jobs [3- engage in looking at this diversity.) Finally, most studies 5]. These agreements were made under the assumption that about immigrants and their impact on European countries immigrants would return to their home countries after their seem to focus on Northern European nations, such as France, work was completed, but in many cases that did not happen. Germany and the Netherlands [3, 6, 7]. What is interesting While immigration has become an important topic in pol- about the North-South European Divide, in terms of demo- icy debates throughout Western Europe, immigrants con- graphic change, is that while many Northern European na- tinue to move into Europe and their presence appears to be tions were experiencing low fertility rates and declining affecting the demography of their host countries. But how, populations, the Southern European nations were experienc- exactly, are immigrants affecting the demography of their ing population growth. Since the end of the 20th Century, the host countries, and if so, are the effects positive or negative? pattern has reversed and it is now the Southern European countries that are having low fertility rates and declining Evaluating the impact immigration has on demographic populations [6]. Our paper hopes to fill an important void by change in two or more nations can be a complex task. An focusing on Spain, a country with a relatively recent history alternative, a case study that focuses on one nation seems of being pro-immigrant and where the immigrant population like an excellent strategy. By focusing on one nation we can appears to have a significant effect on its demographic pro- comprehensively analyze the impact immigration has on file. The purpose of our paper is to examine the effect immi- gration has had on demographic change in Spain. We em- *Address correspondence to this author at the National Education Associa- tion, Washington, DC, USA; Tel: 202-822-7453; Fax: 202-822-7578; ploy publicly available data from the Instituto Nacional de E-mail: [email protected]. Estadistica in conducting our research, and begin by describ- 1874-9186/11 2011 Bentham Open Immigration and its Effects on Demographic Change in Spain The Open Demography Journal, 2011, Volume 4 23 Fig. (1). Population in Spain: 1996-2009. Fig. (2). National Population Relative Change, Spain: 1996-2009 (1996=100). ing the overall demographic profile of both the Spanish There are three other population measures that can be population and its immigrant population. A second analysis used to examine the growth in the Spanish population: natu- uses a simple difference equation and evaluates the impact ral population change (NPC), population change (PC), and immigration has on demographic change. relative population change (RPC). NPC is the difference between the number of live births II. ANALYSIS and the number of deaths per 1000 population. In 1997, the A. Demographic Change in Spain: An Overview NPC population in Spain was 0.49/1000 and by 2008 it rose to 2.38/1000. Population change (PC) is the difference be- 1. Population growth in Spain: 1998 to 2008 tween the size of the population at the end and the beginning Between 1998 and 2008, the Spanish population grew by of a period (Pe - Pb). In the interval 1998-09, the PC in Spain slightly over 16 percent (16.29%). In 1998, the Spanish was 349,509 and it grew to 957,085 by 2007-08. Finally, we population stood at 39,852,651, and by 2008 it had grown to looked at the RPC, as exhibited in Fig. (2) (base year is 46,157,822. There seems to have been a “take-off” point 1996). Note the steep rise in the population from 1996 to around 2000, and thereafter Spain has realized steady popu- 2009. The year 2000 is an important point of departure as the lation growth. Fig. (1) charts this growth. Spanish population began to grow dramatically. This growth 24 The Open Demography Journal, 2011, Volume 4 Verdugo and Swanson is in line with what previous research has suggested [see 6]. multiple indicators for each concept in order to better under- We can conclude that the Spanish population significantly stand how each has changed over time. grew between 1996 and 2009. 1 a. Fertility 2. Components of Demographic Change in Spain: An Overview In 1975, Spain’s fertility rate was a respectable 2.803, but by the early 1980s it dipped below replacement, and reached The three components of demographic change are fertil- a low point of 1.161 in 1996 (Instituto Nacional de Istadis- ity, mortality, and migration. Not only do these three factors tica: www.ine.es). Since then the Spanish fertility rate has affect demographic change, but immigration may have im- remained below replacement. Our discussion in this section portant effects on fertility and mortality as well. In fact, there focuses on four measures of fertility in Spain—the total fer- is considerable debate about the role immigration has in both tility rate, the crude birth rate, the average age of maternity fertility and mortality rates [2, 4, 8-14]. The general consen- among Spanish women, and the average age of Spanish sus is that immigration only minimally affects both, but it women at first birth for the years 1975 to 2007. These data does have an impact on the number of live births. We use may be found in Table 1. Table 1. Fertilty Measures: Spain Women’s' Average Women’s' Age Average Total Crude At Age Fertility Birth First At Year Rate Rate Birth Maternity 1975 2.803 18.76 25.24 28.8 1976 2.802 18.76 24.94 28.51 1977 2.674 17.95 24.86 28.43 1978 2.553 17.23 24.82 28.35 1979 2.372 16.14 24.79 28.24 1980 2.215 15.22 25.05 28.2 1981 2.036 14.12 25.23 28.23 1982 1.941 13.59 25.41 28.32 1983 1.799 12.73 25.51 28.37 1984 1.728 12.36 25.65 28.42 1985 1.642 11.88 25.78 28.45 1986 1.558 11.39 25.89 28.53 1987 1.496 11.05 26.13 28.56 1988 1.45 10.82 26.25 28.57 1989 1.399 10.53 26.56 28.72 1990 1.362 10.33 26.81 28.86 1991 1.329 10.17 27.15 29.04 1992 1.316 10.16 27.49 29.25 1993 1.266 9.84 27.8 29.46 1994 1.204 9.42 28.11 29.72 1995 1.173 9.23 28.39 29.96 1996 1.162 9.19 28.45 30.19 Immigration and its Effects on Demographic Change in Spain The Open Demography Journal, 2011, Volume 4 25 Table 1.