PRO CEE J IN S- Twenty-fourth Annual Meeting Theme: "Transportation Management, Policy and Technology" November 2-5, 1983 Marriott Crystal City Hotel Marriott Crystal Gateway Hotel Arlington, VA Volume XXIV • Number 1 1983 gc <rR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM 1. Road Transportation Requirements To the Year 2000 by J. R. Sutherland* and M. U. Hassan** H'S PAPER presents an overview of are to avoid the experience of the state T the present and future role of the of disrepair of the U.S. highway system road mode in Canada with emphasis on due to lack of timely investment and the Provincial highway system. It brief- resulting damage to the economy, it is .d escribes the trends in road transpo- important that the state of Canada's tation demand and supply: looks at fu- road system be seriously monitored and demand and in general terms iden- appropriate measures taken. tifies the infrastructure and provincial The purpose of this paper is to pro.. flanc..ial requirements to the year 2000. scat an overview of the role of the road The keep its dominant mode in Canada with emphasis on the role private car will in passenger travel which is expect- provincial highway system. The paper ed to grow at 2% per year. The infra- briefly describes the trends in road structure will require capacity expansion transportation demand and supply: it ,en primary highways, upgrading of sur- looks at future demand and in general Laci standards on secondary highways terms identifies the infrastructure and and timely rehabilitation and mainte- financial requirements. Some alterna- ilaPe2. These improvements will require tives to infrastructure expansion are ated provincial expenditure of $6.3 also briefly outlined. tsiitn per year (in 1982 dollars) corn- Forecasting the future of roads in to the current expenditure of $5.2 Canada is particularly difficult because 11110/1 Per year. To make best use of of lack or inadequacy of data. Since al- ,:vallable funds, highway managers will most all roads are a provincial or mu- ',lave to use measures such as attempting nicipal responsibility in Canada, no na- Lo reduce demand, 'staging' capacity and tional data bank of road statistics ex- atr.ength improvements, making more ef- ists. Major deficiencies, inconsistencies pcient use of existing infrastructure and and lack of uniformity exist in our Proving public awareness of infra- knowledge of road transport demand and structure costs. supply. The overview presented in this paper is not based on any fresh analyses ,P of the available limited data but relies IIRPOSE AND and analyses con- LaC on previous studies OPE OF THE PAPER ducted by Transport • Canada supple- t The road is the most pervasive of all mented, where possible, by Statistics ansport modes in Canada. More than Canada data and information obtained 4u7.0 of passenger travel occurs on roads from various provincial departments of and streets. Most of what we eat or wear transportation. 1,11°ves by truck. Automobile-related in- ,ustries directly or indirectly account PAST TRENDS IN DEMAND one job in six in Ontario and one job AND SUPPLY OF ROAD In seven throughout Canada. The aver- TRANSPORTATION family spends 11% of its budget on 'le family car (and only 2% on other Trends in Demand Means of transportation). 4, Road vehicles consume nearly 80% of Passenger Travel Trends: Canadians energy consumed by all transporta- are the most mobile nation in the world '41°/.1, cause nearly 90% of all transpor- next to the Americans. Our propensity ,ation deaths and account for 60% of to own and use cars, and the character- lirban air pollution. istics of this use, have created demand Roads thus have critical importance in for an extensive system of urban and °lir nation's economy and lifestyle. If we rural roads totalling almost 1,000,000 km. Over the past three decades, per-% have risen, ,.* sonal disposable incomes Deputy Minis t e r, Saskatchewan faster and the cost of owning and oper— 4 tghways and Transportation, Regina, ating vehicles slower, than general in... katchewan. flation—this being generally true evens 7_ **Assistant Director of Planning, Sas- for the overall period since the 1973 04. ptchewan Highways and Transporta- price crisis. (3). °n, Regina, Saskatchewan. Therefore the trends in car ownershipfr 2 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM travel and fuel consumption shown in of the 'Canadian Highway System' Figure 1 and Table 1 come as no sur- (6.4% of the total length of roads and prise. The car is by far the dominant streets in Canada) as defined in the next means of passenger transportation, ac- section. counting for 82% of the passenger- The total length of the system has not kilometres. For intercity and rural trips, increased significantly, therefore the the car's share is over 90% and in large movement to the higher volume classifi- urban areas about 75%. cation means that the increase in travel Car travel increased at an average an- is being accommodated on the existing nual rate of 4.5% during the 1970s in network. Greater capacity may be need- the country as a whole (see Table 1). ed to accommodate increasing traffic vFl- Since transportation demand can have umes, particularly in and around major uniquely local characteristics, the areas. growth rates for various provinces, and Traffic volume distribution on high- parts of provinces, varied widely from ways and roads not included in Table 2 the national average. Reflecting the eco- will be different in each province, but we nomic recession, most provinces experi- can assume that these roads have rela- enced a temporary decline in travel of tively low traffic volumes. However, the between 1 to 4% in 1981 or 1982. public expects a maximum of conveni- - The distribution of traffic volumes, ence, comfort and safety even on low which is an indication of demand for volume roads. toads, over the entire 1,000,000 km road Freight Movement Trends. After ex- and street system is not available. Table periencing significant growth in market 2 shows the estimated 1970 and 1980 share between 1960 and 1970, the for- traffic volume distribution on 61,500 km hire truck mode experienced an overall MOTOR VEHICLE REGISTRATION AND MOTIVE FUEL CONSUMPTION 1945-1979 , 14 NET SALES OF 40 GASOLINE AND DIESEL 12 Z 10 0 tn Ld C. N,‘ VEIrlICLES COMMERCIAL IviOTOncICLES 0 1945 50 CO 65 70 751 79 , • YEAR Source: Ref. 3. FIGURE 1 ROAD TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS 3 decreas in the number of tonne-kilom- Canadian freight carriers (excluding etres and a significant loss of market pipelines compared to 38% for rail _(2). share to the rail and pipeline modes (see Figure 2 shows that a vast majority Table 3). (88%) of the tonnage is carried inter- This is a reflection mainly of the in- nally in each of the five economic re- crease in both the quantities and lengths gions of the country. The figure also in- of haul of bulk commodities such as iron dicates the dominant role (56% of ton- ore, coal, forest products, potash and nage) of Ontario and Quebec in truck- grain that move by rail. However, the ing activity. average revenue per tonne-kilometre for Trucks normally constitute less than trucking is four to five times that for 20% of total highway traffic. Also, truck rail (due to shorter hauls, smaller ship- traffic is much less peaked than car traf- Inents and preponderence of general car- fic. Therefore, trucks are not normally a go). Thus, for-hire trucks accounted for major consumer of highway capacity. 47% of the total operating revenues of On the other hand, the number of. TABLE 1 ESTIMATED PASSENGER-KILOMETERS IN CANADA BY MODE FOR 1969 and 1979 1969-79 Annual Average 1969 1979 increase Billions % Billions: % (Decrease) % Automobile 160 87 250 82 4.6 as Bus arid Urban Transit 5.5 3 6.3 2 1.0 Roil 3.5 2 3.2 1 (1.0) Air 14.0 8 45.5 15 12.5 Total 163 100 305 100 5.2 Source: Based on Ref. 2. TABLE 2 1* THE "CANADIAN HIGHWAY SYSTEM": ESTIMATED LENGTH BY TRAFFIC VOLUME-1979 and 1980 • AADT 1970 . 1980 ivehiae. km Pcr Day) less then 500 30.9 14,770 24.0) SOO - 2,000 41.8 20,320 ' 33.0 2,001 -5,000 21.8 16,900 27.5, 5,001 - 15,000 4.7 6,910 11.2: 15,001 -40,000 0.7 2,430 .4.0' 40,000 + 0.2 190 0.3 Total 100.0 61,520 10.0; :t Source: Ref. :3. ) 4 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH FORUM TABLE 3 FREIGHT TONNE-KILOMETERS IN CANADA BY MODE FOR 1970 and 1979 1969-79 Annual Average 1970 1979 Increase Billions % Billions % (Decrease) % For-Hire Truck 52.3 11.5 42.4 6.9 (2.4) Rail 160.6 35.3 233.8 38.1 4.3 Water 115.1 25.3 157.0 25.6 3.5 Pipeline 126.9 27.9 179.5 29.2 3.9 Air N/A N/A 0.9 0.1 N/A Total 454.9 100.0 613.6 100.0 3.4 Source: Ref. 3. • axle-weights of trucks determine the territory. Overall, 33% of roads are pro- pavement thickness required. Over- vincial, 11% urban municipal, 54% rural weight,trucks are a major cause of pave- municipal and 2% federal. (Of the 300,- ment. deterioration. 000 km of paved roads, an estimated 180,000 km (60%) are provincial and the Trends in the Supply of remainder municipal). However, the ju.- Road. Infrastructure risdictional split and financial responsi- bilities vary from province to province.