View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2014-09 Survivability design of ground systems for area defense operation in an urban scenario Goh, Wei Jun Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/43918 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS SURVIVABILITY DESIGN OF GROUND SYSTEMS FOR AREA DEFENSE OPERATION IN AN URBAN SCENARIO by Wei Jun Goh September 2014 Thesis Advisor: Douglas H. Nelson Co-Advisor: Eugene Paulo Second Reader: Gary Langford Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2014 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS SURVIVABILITY DESIGN OF GROUND SYSTEMS FOR AREA DEFENSE OPERATION IN AN URBAN SCENARIO 6. AUTHOR(S) Wei Jun Goh 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis applies a systems engineering approach to determine significant ground system design factors that impact the mission objectives of an urban area defense operation. The shift in conventional warfare to urban operations changes the determinants of an operationally-effective ground system design. Urban terrain characteristics pose different battlefield conditions and design challenges to ground system in an area defense operation. Limited by engineering constraints, ground systems should be designed to leverage the operational environment to achieve mission success. Drawing reference to performed functions in urban area defense, this thesis identifies four design factors of passive and active survivability measures, mobility, and sensor classification range. Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA) software is used to model an area defense operation against an invading enemy. This thesis utilizes nearly orthogonal Latin hypercubes (NOLH) to determine the design points for simulation. For each identified measure of effectiveness (MOE) of mission success rate, friendly attrition, and loss exchange ratio (LER) during an area defense mission, the effect of respective design factors and its relative contribution are analyzed. 14. SUBJECT TERMS survivability, vulnerability reduction, area defense, ground systems, armor 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 97 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited SURVIVABILITY DESIGN OF GROUND SYSTEMS FOR AREA DEFENSE OPERATION IN AN URBAN SCENARIO Wei Jun Goh Civilian, Defence Science and Technology Agency B.S., Nanyang Technological University, 2008 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2014 Author: Wei Jun Goh Approved by: Douglas H. Nelson Thesis Advisor Eugene Paulo Co-Advisor Gary Langford Second Reader Clifford Whitcomb Chair, Department of Systems Engineering iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis applies a systems engineering approach to determine significant ground system design factors that impact the mission objectives of an urban area defense operation. The shift in conventional warfare to urban operations changes the determinants of an operationally-effective ground system design. Urban terrain characteristics pose different battlefield conditions and design challenges to ground system in an area defense operation. Limited by engineering constraints, ground systems should be designed to leverage the operational environment to achieve mission success. Drawing reference to performed functions in urban area defense, this thesis identifies four design factors of passive and active survivability measures, mobility, and sensor classification range. Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA) software is used to model an area defense operation against an invading enemy. This thesis utilizes nearly orthogonal Latin hypercubes (NOLH) to determine the design points for simulation. For each identified measure of effectiveness (MOE) of mission success rate, friendly attrition, and loss exchange ratio (LER) during an area defense mission, the effect of respective design factors and its relative contribution are analyzed. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. RESEARCH QUESTIONS .............................................................................2 B. SCOPE ..............................................................................................................3 C. APPROACH .....................................................................................................3 D. METHODOLOGY ..........................................................................................4 E. CONCURRENT STUDIES .............................................................................4 II. LITERATURE REVIEW ...........................................................................................5 A. URBAN OPERATIONS ..................................................................................5 B. DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS .........................................................................6 C. URBAN OPERATIONAL FRAMEWORK ..................................................6 1. Understand ...........................................................................................6 2. Shape .....................................................................................................7 3. Engage ...................................................................................................8 4. Consolidate ...........................................................................................8 5. Transition..............................................................................................8 D. IRON TRIANGLE OF VEHICLE PLATFORM DESIGN TRADE- OFF....................................................................................................................8 E. LETHALITY ....................................................................................................9 1. Kinetic Energy Threat .........................................................................9 2. Chemical Energy Threat .....................................................................9 F. PROTECTION AND SURVIVABILITY ....................................................11 1. Susceptibility Reduction ....................................................................11 2. Vulnerability Reduction ....................................................................12 G. MOBILITY .....................................................................................................15 H. PLATFORM DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS .............................................16 III. SYSTEMS ENGINEERING APPROACH .............................................................17 A. PROBLEM DESCRIPTION ........................................................................18 1. Problem Statement.............................................................................20 B. STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS .....................................................................20 C. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS ....................................................................21 D. FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS .........................................................................22 1. Maintain Situational Awareness .......................................................23 2. Communicate......................................................................................24 3. Maneuver Forces ................................................................................24 4. Limit Enemy Advance .......................................................................25