MULTIDIMENSIONAL PARTY COMPETITION: STABILITY AND CHANGE IN EUROPEAN PARTY SYSTEMS Jelle Koedam A dissertation submitted to the faculty of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science in the College of Arts and Sciences. Chapel Hill 2019 Approved by: Gary Marks Anna Bassi Liesbet Hooghe James Stimson Milada Vachudova © 2019 Jelle Koedam ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii ABSTRACT JELLE KOEDAM: Multidimensional party competition: Stability and change in European party systems (Under the direction of Gary Marks.) This dissertation develops a unified framework for studying political contestation in advanced industrial democracies. It contests a notion widely held in the literature that polit- ical parties continuously change their policy positions, arguing instead that parties are ide- ologically quite constrained at the dimensional level. Building on insights from a variety of literatures, including spatial modeling and sociology, it advances a novel theory that accounts for the role of salience for party change by distinguishing between a party’s primary and sec- ondary dimension. The first study shows that a party’s reputation and long-term ideological commitments limit positional flexibility on its more salient dimension, while short-term strategic policy shifts are possible on issues outside of its core agenda. The second study explores a party’s incentives to obscure its policy preferences on certain issues. It analyzes how party leaders de- liberately create uncertainty about where their party stands on the issue of European integra- tion. It shows that three distinct blurring strategies—avoidance, ambiguity, and alternation— all increase expert uncertainty about party positions, but that their effectiveness is conditioned by party-level characteristics. The third study further enhances our understanding of second dimension politics by examining the variation in the economic positions of European region- alist parties. It uses a combination of public opinion and expert-level data on voter and party positions to analyze the constraints on the strategic behavior of these parties on the left-right dimension. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Although I am listed as the sole author of this dissertation, many people contributed to its successful completion. First and foremost, I am forever grateful to Gary Marks, my ad- visor, and Liesbet Hooghe for their guidance, advice, and support. It may sound like a cliche,´ but I truly would not be where I am today without them. Gary and Liesbet were the first ones to suggest that I pursue my PhD in the United States, when we met in Amsterdam, and they encouraged me to step outside my comfort zone and take on a new challenge. Following their advice, and subsequently moving to Chapel Hill, was one of the best decisions I have ever made. Their mentorship knows no bounds, and it is no surprise—though no less admirable— that they maintain such a tightly-knit network with their former students in the US, Europe, and beyond. I am so thankful that they made me feel appreciated from the beginning, and I cherish the relationships that I have built with their friends and colleagues along the way. Consequently, I also want to thank Jan Rovny, Jonathan Polk, Seth Jolly, and Ryan Bakker for making me feel welcome and for providing valuable feedback on my work. I am excited to see what collaborations might develop in the future. A special mention should also go out to Milada Vachudova. Milada’s unwavering support provided an anchor from the moment I arrived in Chapel Hill. Whether our meetings focused on my dissertation, graduate school, or life in general, she was always available for help and delivered criticism with grace. Anna Bassi and James Stimson were equally support- ive and constructive, and together my committee members fostered a comfortable environ- ment that was tailored to making my research better. I will carry their advice with me long after I leave UNC. To all others who provided feedback on my work over the years, I cannot thank you enough. iv I used to jokingly say that I got settled in Chapel Hill in less than a week, but that statement is actually not far from the truth. Thanks to my amazing friends, my time at UNC has been a wonderful experience that has changed me for the better—and part of me is cer- tainly sad to move on. Steven Sparks, Serge and Stefanie Korepin, Claire Dunn, Gabriele Magni, Claire Greenstein, Chelsea Estancona, Amy Sentementes, Ryan Williams, Dave At- tewell, Emily Carty, Derek Epp, and many, many others: Thank you for providing me with a home away from home. Last but not least, I could not have done this without the loving support of my family. My parents, brother, sister, and the rest of my family have always supported me uncondition- ally. Whether I moved to the other side of the Atlantic, or temporarily dropped off the radar during a busy period, my family was always understanding and encouraged me to keep going. More importantly, they ensured that I maintained a balance in my life by reminding me that I am often my harshest critic. I hope they know that this dissertation would not have been pos- sible without them. Finally, words cannot describe how important my partner, Jenn, has been these past few years. She is a beacon of support in my life and I could not be more grateful. v TABLE OF CONTENTS LISTOFTABLES................................... viii LISTOFFIGURES.................................. ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION . 1 CHAPTER 2: STABILITY AND CHANGE IN EUROPEAN PARTY POSITIONS . 4 A theory of party change and stability . 7 On the formation of party systems and legacies . 8 Party strategy in a multidimensional environment . 10 Data & method . 13 Dependent variables . 14 Independent variables . 16 Control variables . 18 Model specification . 20 Analysis . 21 Discussion . 26 CHAPTER 3: POSITION BLURRING IN A MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONTEXT . 29 Why do parties blur? . 31 How do parties blur? . 34 Data & method . 39 Analysis . 43 Discussion . 48 CHAPTER 4: LEFT-RIGHT DIVERSITY AMONG REGIONALIST PARTIES . 50 The ideological profile of the regionalist party family . 52 vi The economic left-right dimension . 54 Data availability . 57 Analysis . 58 The case of the Scottish National Party . 65 Discussion . 67 APPENDIX 2.1: CATEGORIZATION OF MARPOR ISSUE AREAS . 70 APPENDIX 2.2: CORRELATION MATRIX FOR INCLUDED VARIABLES . 71 APPENDIX 2.3: ALTERNATIVE OPERATIONALIZATIONS . 72 APPENDIX 2.4: PARTY CHANGE ON DIMENSIONS VS. ISSUES . 75 APPENDIX 2.5: PARTY CHANGE AS A RATIO . 78 APPENDIX 3.1: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR INCLUDED VARIABLES . 80 APPENDIX 3.2: CORRELATION MATRIX FOR INCLUDED VARIABLES . 81 APPENDIX 3.3: BLURRING STRATEGIES BY GROUP . 82 APPENDIX 3.4: AVOIDANCE BY PARTY TYPE . 83 APPENDIX 4.1: CATEGORIZATION OF MARPOR ISSUE AREAS (L-R) . 84 APPENDIX 4.2: EPAC SURVEY QUESTIONS . 85 APPENDIX 4.3: DIMENSIONAL SALIENCE & LEFT-RIGHT PARTY CHANGE 86 REFERENCES . 87 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Operationalization of (in)dependent variables . 15 2 Descriptive statistics (Chapter 2) . 19 3 Regression analysis of absolute party changes, 1999-2014 . 22 4 Overview of hypothesized conditional relationships . 38 5 Regression analysis of expert uncertainty, 1999-2017 . 44 6 MARPOR issue areas (left-right, GAL-TAN) . 70 7 Correlation matrix (Chapter 2) . 71 8 Regression analysis of absolute party changes (MARPOR), 1999-2014 . 72 9 Regression analysis of absolute party changes (CHES), 1999-2014 . 74 10 Party change on dimensions vs. issues . 75 11 Regression analysis of absolute party changes (ratio), 1999-2014 . 79 12 Descriptive statistics (Chapter 3) . 80 13 Correlation matrix (Chapter 3) . 81 14 Descriptive statistics of blurring strategies . 82 15 MARPOR issue areas (left-right) . 84 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Expert placements of German and Dutch parties on left-right, 1999-2014 . 5 2 Histograms for measurement of party change by ideological dimension . 16 3 Salience of Left-Right to GAL-TAN by party family . 20 4 Marginal effects of salience on party change by vote share . 23 5 Marginal effects of salience on party change by government participation . 24 6 Marginal effects of salience on party change by distance from center . 25 7 Expert uncertainty on European integration by party family . 33 8 Expert uncertainty on European integration (density) . 40 9 Marginal effects of avoidance on expert uncertainty . 46 10 Marginal effects of ambiguity on expert uncertainty . 47 11 Marginal effect of alternation on expert uncertainty . 48 12 Ideological cohesiveness by party family, 1999-2014 . 51 13 Avoidance of left-right (MARPOR, 1999-2017) by party family . 59 14 Position blurring on left-right (CHES) by party family . 60 15 Avoidance of left-right (MARPOR) by regionalist parties . 60 16 Party change on left-right by family & dimension . 62 17 Regionalist party distance to voter positions on left-right (EPAC, 2017) . 63 18 Regionalist party and voter positions on left-right (EPAC, 2017) . 64 19 Party change on European integration by salience . 76 20 Party change on individual issues by salience . 77 21 Avoidance of European integration by party age, size, and government status . 83 22 Regionalist party-level salience by dimension . 86 23 Regionalist party change on left-right by salience . 86 ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION The study of party strategy and political contestation is moving in an exciting new direction. Until recently, much of the literature in this field retained a parsimonious, but artifi- cial, unidimensional view of party competition. Increasingly, however, scholars have begun to embrace the inherent complexity and dynamism of the ideological landscape in which parties compete for votes. This dissertation follows this new perspective and deals with the complica- tions of multidimensional democratic representation head on. In particular, it presents a series of chapters that enrich our understanding of party competition with insights from more histor- ical, sociological approaches, all the while generating empirical predictions that are compati- ble with, and directly contribute to, the mainstream literature on party behavior.