CANADA’S FIGHTER CAPABILITY: THE F-35 JSF IS THE RIGHT CHOICE TO REPLACE THE CF-18 HORNET Lieutenant-Colonel A. Dobrei JCSP 37 PCEMI 37 Master of Defence Studies Maîtrise en études de la défense Disclaimer Avertissement Opinions expressed remain those of the author and do Les opinons exprimées n’engagent que leurs auteurs et not represent Department of National Defence or ne reflètent aucunement des politiques du Ministère de Canadian Forces policy. This paper may not be used la Défense nationale ou des Forces canadiennes. Ce without written permission. papier ne peut être reproduit sans autorisation écrite. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the © Sa Majesté la Reine du Chef du Canada, représentée par le Minister of National Defence, 2014, 2015. ministre de la Défense nationale, 2014, 2015. CANADIAN FORCES COLLEGE – COLLÈGE DES FORCES CANADIENNES JCSP 37 – PCEMI 37 MASTER OF DEFENCE STUDIES – MAÎTRISE EN ÉTUDES DE LA DÉFENSE CANADA’S FIGHTER CAPABILITY: THE F-35 JSF IS THE RIGHT CHOICE TO REPLACE THE CF-18 HORNET By Lieutenant-Colonel A. Dobrei 11 August 2014 “This paper was written by a student “La présente étude a été rédigée par attending the Canadian Forces College un stagiaire du Collège des Forces in fulfilment of one of the requirements canadiennes pour satisfaire à l'une des of the Course of Studies. The paper is exigences du cours. L'étude est un a scholastic document, and thus document qui se rapporte au cours et contains facts and opinions, which the contient donc des faits et des opinions author alone considered appropriate que seul l'auteur considère appropriés and correct for the subject. It does not et convenables au sujet. Elle ne reflète necessarily reflect the policy or the pas nécessairement la politique ou opinion of any agency, including the l'opinion d'un organisme quelconque, y Government of Canada and the compris le gouvernement du Canada et Canadian Department of National le ministère de la Défense nationale du Defence. This paper may not be Canada. Il est défendu de diffuser, de released, quoted or copied, except with citer ou de reproduire cette étude sans the express permission of the Canadian la permission expresse du ministère de Department of National Defence.” la Défense nationale.” Word Count: 15 844 Compte de mots : 15 844 i TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................... i LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ ii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. iii ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iv 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1 2. FOUNDATIONS OF CANADIAN FOREIGN AND DEFENCE POLICY ............ 6 3. FORCE DEVELOPMENT, AEROSPACE DOCTRINE AND THE THREAT .... 22 4. THE JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER PROGRAM AND CANADA ............................ 38 5. OTHER POTENTIAL CF-18 REPLACEMENT OPTIONS .................................. 64 6. ANALYSIS SUMMARY ........................................................................................ 78 7. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................ 87 APPENDIX 1 – SUMMARY OF JSF TECHNOLOGIES .............................................. 90 APPENDIX 2 – TECHNOLOGY AND RISK SUMMARY FOR NON-JSF CANDIDATES ...................................................................................................... 102 APPENDIX 3 – LIST OF ACRONYMS........................................................................ 134 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................... 139 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 – Developing CFDS ........................................................................................... 15 Figure 2 – Capability Based Planning Process ................................................................. 23 Figure 3 – The Three F-35 JSF Variants .......................................................................... 43 Figure 4 – JSF JORD Roadmap identifying key COPT assessment factors..................... 46 Figure 5 – Comparison of Classic F/A-18A-D Hornet with F/A-18E/F Super Hornet .... 66 Figure 6 – Eurofighter General Characteristics ................................................................ 68 Figure 7 – Dassault Rafale Technical Characteristics ...................................................... 69 Figure 8 – Gripen NG Technical Characteristics .............................................................. 71 Figure 9 – Potential sets of platform capabilities for UAS ............................................... 73 Figure 10 – Medium Class UAS Evolution ...................................................................... 74 Figure 11 – F-35 Advanced Fusion Avionics Suite .......................................................... 92 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 – Aerospace Functions, Roles and Missions for Fighter Aircraft ........................ 28 Table 2 – Potential Threat Exposure Matrix for RCAF Fighters by CFDS Role ............. 32 Table 3 – International Participation in the JSF CDP ....................................................... 41 Table 4 – JSF KPPs........................................................................................................... 47 Table 5 – Aircraft Cost Composition and Definitions ...................................................... 57 Table 6 – Full Canadian Program Cost Estimate for the F-35 JSF (2013) ....................... 59 Table 7 – Summary of non-JSF Contenders ..................................................................... 76 Table 8 – Comparison of CF-18 Hornet Replacement Options ........................................ 79 iv ABSTRACT The Harper Government’s planned sole-source procurement of the advanced fifth- generation F-35 Lightning II fighter currently in development, to replace Canada’s ageing CF-18 Hornets, has left it open to significant criticism from the opposition, media, subject matter experts and the interested public. More specifically, the belief is that a sole-source procurement of the F-35 would lead to higher procurement costs and expose Canada to the risk of buying an aircraft with capabilities driven by costly technologies that are not yet proven, and potentially not even needed. Yet, a detailed look at the facts surrounding Canada’s participation in the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, the RCAF’s list of unclassified requirements, the future security environment, projected capabilities and costs, as well as an examination of the alternatives suggest otherwise. Canada remaining in the JSF partnership provides taxpayers with access to the best possible purchase price for the F-35 along with significant industrial opportunities. The technologies developed for this aircraft are all assessed as critical to Canadian aerospace operations both at home and abroad for the projected life of the aircraft in Canadian service. And finally, based on the current market and available contenders, the procurement of an existing, less capable design in lieu of the F-35 as Canada’s replacement fighter for the next thirty years will not likely generate any procurement savings to the Canadian taxpayer, and would expose the RCAF’s new fighter force to operational and sustainment risks in the longer term. 1 1. INTRODUCTION While there has been a growing consensus that Canada needs a CF-18 replacement aircraft, there has been more vigorous debate with respect to the wisdom of the Government’s selection of the F-35 as its candidate aircraft. Some of this debate has been balanced, but much has been based upon misconceptions and half-truths, and some commentators – including those who should know better – have willingly contributed to the confusion that exists about the F-35. - Lieutenant-General (Ret’d) Lloyd Campbell1 The Next Generation Fighter Capability (NGFC) procurement program to replace the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF’s) aging CF-18 Hornet fighters has garnered significant media attention since Prime Minister Harper’s Conservative government announced on 16 July 2010 that it would procure, without a competition, and at a cost of $9 billion, up to 65 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighters.2 The F-35, also known as the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), is a recognized fifth generation fighter3, one of only a few types currently flying today.4 Other currently known fifth generation designs include the United States Air Force’s (USAF’s) F-22 Raptor, the only operational type of its 1 Lloyd Campbell, “Replacing the Canadian Manned Fighter Capability,” Canadian Military Journal 11 No. 3 (Summer 2011), 60. 2 CBC News | Canada, “Canada to spend $9B on F-35 fighter jets,” http://www.cbc.ca/news/ canada/story/2010/07/16/canada-jets.html; Internet; accessed 04 May 2013. 3 The definition of jet fighter “generations” has long been subject to debate. According to John A. Tirpak, broadly speaking, Generation 4 fighter designs incorporate pulse-doppler radar; high manoeuvrability and look-down, shoot-down missiles (e.g. F-15, CF-18, Mirage, MiG-29). Generation 4+ fighters include high agility; sensor fusion; reduced signatures (e.g. Eurofighter Typhoon, Su-30, advanced versions