AFTER GREAT DISASTERS Johnson and Olshansky An In-Depth Analysis of How Six Countries Managed Community Recovery AFTER GREAT DISASTERS “ After Great Disasters is best read by civic leaders before the next hurricane, earthquake, or terrorist An In-Depth Analysis of How Six Countries attack. Its crisp and cogent review of what worked and what didn’t after the world’s recent large disasters ought to be mandatory reading, which could make the difference between a community’s Managed Community Recovery renaissance or stagnation.” — ANDREW D. KOPPLIN PRESIDENT & CEO AFTER GREAT DISASTERS DORIS Z. STONE CHAIR IN PHILANTHROPIC LEADERSHIP GREATER NEW ORLEANS FOUNDATION “ If you live in an area that might experience a major disaster, buy and read this book now. If you haven’t already read it when a disaster occurs, find a copy and read it carefully. It provides a wealth of advice about the challenges you will experience during recovery and suggests how to organize your recovery efforts to the best effect.” — HERMAN B. “DUTCH” LEONARD BAKER PROFESSOR OF PUBLIC MANAGEMENT FACULTY COCHAIR OF THE PROGRAM ON CRISIS LEADERSHIP HARVARD UNIVERSITY JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT “ After Great Disasters offers one of the most well-researched accounts of large-scale, post-disaster recovery programs in several countries. The case studies highlight the common strands of suc- cessful recovery programs: effective governance, intensive planning, transparent implementation, and civic participation. The book raises the complex issues and trade-offs underlying recovery programs and takes a nuanced view of recovery, which balances rebuilding livelihoods and social networks with reconstructing houses and infrastructure. This book is essential reading for students and practitioners of post-disaster recovery.” — KRISHNA S. VATSA RECOVERY ADVISOR BUREAU FOR POLICY AND PROGRAMME SUPPORT UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Laurie A. Johnson and Robert B. Olshansky AFTER GREAT DISASTERS AFTER GREAT DISASTERS AN IN- DEPTH ANALY SIS OF HOW SIX COUNTRIES MANAGED COMMUNITY RECOVERY LAURIE A. JOHNSON and ROBERT B. OLSHANSKY © 2017 by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy All rights reserved. Library of Congress Control Number LCCN 2017002417 (ebook) ISBN 9781558443327 (prc) | ISBN 9781558443334 (epub) | ISBN 9781558443341 (ibook) | ISBN 9781558443358 (pdf) | ISBN 9781558443310 (pbk) www.lincolninst.edu Contents 1 Introduction: Evolving Approaches to Managing Recovery 1 from Large- Scale Disasters 2 China: Top- Down, Fast- Paced Reconstruction 17 3 New Zealand: Centralizing Governance and Transforming 55 Cityscapes 4 Japan: National Land Use Regulations Drive Recovery 107 5 India: State- Managed Recovery with NGO Involvement 170 6 Indonesia: Centrally Managed, Community- Driven 209 Approaches to Reconstruction 7 United States: An Evolving Recovery Policy 253 Centralized at Federal and State Levels 8 Conclusions and Recommendations 313 Acknowl edgments 331 References 333 Index 361 About the Authors 381 About the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy 383 1 Introduction Evolving Approaches to Managing Recovery from Large- Scale Disasters magine for a moment that you are a po liti cal leader— a prime minister, Ipresident, or governor— and you are awakened to the news that a natu ral disaster has struck. Citizens have died, buildings have collapsed, infra- structure is hobbled, and local leaders desperately need additional re- sources and support. You respond immediately, sending personnel and equipment to the disaster zone and pledging additional assistance to local leaders. Yet within days, even hours, before all the casualties are treated and before the streets have been cleared of rubble, other leaders and the media are demanding answers to questions you have not had time to consider: How much money will be pledged to rebuilding? What standards will guide it? Will all landowners be permitted to rebuild? Will there be enough housing for renters? How will the local economy be reconstructed? Who will lead the pro cess? Is a new institution or governance structure needed to cut through bureaucratic red tape and expedite the rebuilding? This book synthesizes two de cades of research on the roles of vari ous levels of government in successful disaster recovery and rebuilding after some of the largest disasters in the United States, Japan, China, New Zealand, Indonesia, and India, as well as observations in several other countries around the world. This research involved collecting hundreds of documents and interviewing countless government officials, academic re- searchers, representatives of international aid organ izations, community 2 After Great Disasters Hurricane Sandy damaged many homes along the New Jersey shore after making landfall there on October 29, 2012. Photo by Laurie Johnson (2013). leaders, and disaster survivors with the aim of finding common lessons in these disparate environments and facilitating the recovery of communi- ties struck by future disasters. THE PRO CESS AND MANAGEMENT OF POST- DISASTER RECOVERY Large disasters are rare. When they occur, however, their aftermath can change the fortunes of a city or region, for good or for ill. Chicago and San Francisco became more successful cities after being ravaged by fire and earthquake, respectively, and Tokyo successfully survived devastating fires caused by earthquake and war. But the city center of Managua, Nicaragua, never recovered from a 1972 earthquake, and Galveston, Texas, lost its im- portance after destruction by a great hurricane in 1900. Management of recovery matters because disasters extend over time. They disrupt lives and businesses aspeople await assistance, infrastructure repair, and the return of their neighbors. Physical recovery from disasters Introduction: Evolving Approaches to Managing Recovery 3 takes many years, and the psychological scars can last for de cades. Many people survive the initial disaster but then suffer from the recovery as the economy stagnates, social networks weaken, and healthcare and support ser vices decline. The pro cess of recovery is a major aspect of a disaster, and its management can affect both the intensity and the duration of citizens’ disaster experiences. Post- disaster reconstruction offers a variety of oppor- tunities to fix long- standing prob lems by improving construction and design standards and construction quality, renewing infrastructure, creating new land use arrangements, avoiding hazardous locations, reinventing economies, improving governance, and raising community awareness and preparedness. Until now, there has been little systematic understanding of how to make recovery work. When a catastrophic disaster strikes, the leaders of the affected communities often recognize that they lack relevant experi- ence, so they seek lessons from others. Typically, they muddle through, innovate, and learn as they go. But, in the end, most agree that if they had known then what they have since learned, their recovery could have been faster and easier. Increasingly, in our globalized and connected world, af- fected communities benefit from assistance from those who have experi- ence with recent disasters in other parts of the world. Given this growing collection of disaster recovery experiences, the time is ripe for organ izing and synthesizing common lessons. In the past 40 years, a number of serious international disasters have required large- scale, sustained intervention by multiple levels of government and nongovernmental organ izations (NGOs), and their responses have increased our knowledge of long- term post- disaster reconstruction. We now have enough examples to develop transferable theories about the pro- cess of rebuilding human settlements after disasters. Recovery as a Pro cess Reconstruction Following Disaster was the first comprehensive, long- term study of disaster recovery (Haas, Kates, and Bowden 1977). Its authors studied rebuilding after the 1906 San Francisco, 1964 Alaska, and 1972 Managua earthquakes, among other disasters, and described recovery as 4 After Great Disasters EMERGENCY RESTORATION RECONSTRUCTION IRECONSTRUCTION II Major Construction CAPITAL Damaged or Patched Rebuilt (Replacement) (Commemoration, STOCK: Destroyed Betterment, Redevelopment) NORMAL Ceased or Return and Return to Improved and ACTIVITIES: Changed Function Pre-disaster Redeveloped Levels or Greater HIGH COPING ACTIVITY LEVELS: LOW 3 days 6 days 2 weeks 10 weeks4 months1 year 2 years 10 years TIME FOLLOWING DISASTER FIGURE 1.1. Disaster Recovery Timeline A model recovery timeline first proposed by Haas, Kates, and Bowden identified four overlap- ping periods of recovery- related activities, each lasting significantly longer than the previous ones. Source: Based on Haas, Kates, and Bowden (1977). an ordered, knowable, and predictable pro cess in which there is a strong community desire to return to normalcy after a disastrous event. They proposed that recovery progresses through four distinct but overlapping periods— emergency, restoration, replacement reconstruction, and major reconstruction involving betterment and commemoration (Haas, Kates, and Bowden 1977, xxvi– xxviii; see figure 1.1). Although subsequent scholars have questioned this ordered, sequen- tial model of recovery, Reconstruction Following Disaster still contains considerable wisdom. In par tic u lar, its authors estimated that it takes more than two years to attain pre- disaster levels of capital stock and activities, and it can take ten years or longer to complete major reconstruction.