PHUSICOS According to nature Deliverable D5.1 NBS in-depth case study analysis of the characteristics of successful governance models Work Package 5 – Governance Innovation Deliverable Work Package Leader: Revision: [0] – Final International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Dissemination level: Public November 2019 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 776681. Any dissemination of results must indicate that it reflects only the author's view and that the Agency is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. The present document has not yet received final approval from the European Commission and may be subject to changes. H2020 Project PHUSICOS Grant Agreement No. 776681 2 / 169 Note about contributors Lead partner responsible for the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis deliverable: (IIASA) Deliverable prepared by: Juliette Martin, JoAnne Bayer, Wei Liu (IIASA), Anna Scolobig (University of Geneva) Partner responsible for quality NGI, TUM control: Deliverable reviewed by: Farrokh Nadim (NGI), Gerd Lupp, Aude Zingraff-Hamed (TUM), Brian Fath (IIASA) Other contributors: Jörg Balsiger (University of Geneva) Project information Project period: 1 May 2018 – 30 April 2022 Duration (no. of months): 48 Web-site: www.phusicos.eu Project coordinator: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, (NGI project no.: 20180404) Project partners: H2020 Project PHUSICOS Grant Agreement No. 776681 3 / 169 Deliverable No.: 5.1 Date: 2019-10-18 Rev. No.: 0 Summary PHUSICOS is an Innovation Action project funded by the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No. 776681). The main objective of PHUSICOS is to demonstrate that nature-inspired or nature-based solutions (NBS) for reducing natural hazard risk of extreme weather events in rural mountain landscapes are technically viable, cost-effective, and implementable at regional scale. Experience shows, however, that technical viability and cost-effectiveness alone do not ensure the successful realization of NBS. On the contrary, the NBS process will depend critically on the legal, institutional, social, political, and financial conditions—that is, the governance framework—enabling the NBS policy process (Bernardi et al., 2019). PHUSICOS Work Package 5 addresses governance innovation, where governance goes beyond government to involve a network of state and non-state actors (e.g., business, civil society, expert communities) in the process of deciding on and implementing NBS policy. This deliverable (D5.1) provides a comparative overview of governance frameworks that have enabled the initiation, planning, design and implementation of NBS across three successful NBS cases: i) mitigating flood risk through the restoration of the Isar River in Munich, Germany; ii) halting deforestation and encouraging afforestation as measures to reduce flood/landslide risk in the Wolong Nature Reserve, China; and iii) reducing landslide risk with natural measures in Nocera Inferiore, Italy. All case studies address two main questions: • How do public authorities and other stakeholders view the success of implemented NBS in terms of their main benefits and co-benefits? • What pre-existing conditions (external to the project) and new and potentially innovative factors helped enable the NBS? The methodologies for exploring these questions include i) a literature review (publications, reports, media, web sites, etc.) and ii) targeted open-ended interviews (telephone and face-to-face) with stakeholders. In each of the three cases, the interviews confirmed the success of the NBS measures and revealed interviewees' views on their benefits in terms not only of disaster risk reduction but of multiple ecological and social-economic co-benefits. Delving into the governance factors that enabled the implementation of the NBS, we distinguish between those factors in place before the NBS initiation (i.e., preconditions) and those that emerged post-initiation. In all cases, funds for disaster risk reduction (DRR) were in place (or promised) by the public authorities at the initiation of the NBS policy process (in the Nocera Inferiore case the budget was insufficient for a grey solution which paved the way for an affordable NBS), meaning our cases focus largely on administrative governance. Market actors were absent in all cases. Notwithstanding differences in the European and Chinese political systems, as well as differences in the NBS implemented, the governance enablers were in many ways similar. A major flood/landslide event or in the Isar River case smaller events coupled with a model that simulated a major future event, opened a window of opportunity for H2020 Project PHUSICOS Grant Agreement No. 776681 4 / 169 Deliverable No.: 5.1 Date: 2019-10-18 Rev. No.: 0 already existing environmental groups or supportive state authorities to advocate for a nature-based or hybrid green–blue–grey solution. In all cases political will developed (although to different degrees) in the public administration, reinforced by individuals that championed innovative nature-based policy options. Even in the absence of formal procedures such as an environmental impact assessment, inclusive participatory processes emerged that shaped the outcome toward an NBS or in China toward a more effective incentive system for assuring monitoring of an NBS. Finally, wide-scale stakeholder opposition to grey measures, or in China to a sanction-based enforcement regime, catalyzed the NBS policy process. The cases thus illustrate governance innovation in three critical areas: • Polycentric governance: In all cases novel arrangements emerged in the public administration that dispersed decision authority across multiple organizations that included not only flood and landslide protection, but also nature conservation, urban planning, water quality, waste management, tourism, and recreation, among others. • NBS co-design: All cases illustrate novel stakeholder participatory processes that influenced the eventual shape of the NBS. In Nocera Inferiore the process was particularly exemplary in that it coupled stakeholders and experts in the co- design of a compromise solution for risk mitigation that fostered the NBS adoption. • Financial incentives: In the Wolong case, local authorities in unprecedented consultation with villagers designed and implemented novel incentives for households to monitor illegal logging in a nature reserve. The cases also illustrate the prominence, almost inevitability, of hybrid solutions. Governance involves finding compromises that can resolve the interest and value conflicts underlying the green–grey divide. In the Isar-Plan case the compromise was a hybrid solution that piggy-backed the restoration of the river onto a "hidden" grey flood protection; in China, although there were few overt tradeoffs, the national government combined the large-scale forest conservation NBS in Wolong with grey flood protection measures in lower reaches of the Minjiang, the source branch of the Yangtze river; and in the Nocera Inferiore case the NBS was coupled with a plan for complementary grey infrastructure. Importantly, the implemented NBS in each case had co-benefits reaching beyond disaster risk reduction (DRR) that added significantly to their rationale, appeal, and eventual adoption. Indeed, a major insight from the case studies is the importance of merging agendas. NBS can contribute to transformative global agendas, including disaster risk reduction as agreed in the 2015 Sendai Framework, as well as climate adaptation (2016 Paris Agreement), biodiversity (European Biodiversity Strategy), and sustainable development (2015 UN Sustainable Development Goals). The transition from grey solutions to NBS is not only in many instances cost-effective and viable, but also necessary and urgent. H2020 Project PHUSICOS Grant Agreement No. 776681 5 / 169 Deliverable No.: 5.1 Date: 2019-10-18 Rev. No.: 0 The target audience of this deliverable includes: • PHUSICOS project partners and Living Lab participants and facilitators, who are implementing demonstration or concept cases and exploring governance regimes for upscaling; • The PHUSICOS Policy-Business Forum (D5.3) which is exploring innovative legal, financial, institutional, and other measures that can accelerate the uptake of NBS; • National, European, and international administrators who can influence institutional and policy reforms needed for enhancing NBS governance regimes; and • A broader audience of scientists, policy makers and NBS practitioners. H2020 Project PHUSICOS Grant Agreement No. 776681 6 / 169 Deliverable No.: 5.1 Date: 2019-10-18 Rev. No.: 0 Contents 1 Introduction 11 2 Concepts and methods 15 3 Green is the new grey on Munich’s Isar River - Innovative nature-based solutions boost ambitious flood protection scheme 18 3.1 Case-study overview 18 3.2 Research design 19 3.3 The Isar restoration in Munich: Context and history 19 3.4 Stakeholder landscape and positions 27 3.5 Benefits and co-benefits 35 3.6 Enablers of the Isar-Plan success 38 3.7 Summary and key messages 51 4 Carrots and sticks for conserving the forest - A Nature-based Solution for Wolong Nature Reserve 56 4.1 Case-study overview 56 4.2 Research design 57 4.3 NBS in Wolong Nature Reserve: context and history 57 4.4 Stakeholders landscape of NFCP in WNR 67 4.5 Benefits and co-benefits 69 4.6 Enablers of the NBS programs in WNR 73 4.7 Summary and key messages