Signposts for Queensland: An analysis of future pathways Anna Littleboy, Stefan Hajkowicz, James Moody, Richard Parsons and Lisa Wilhelmseder January 2012 SIGNPOSTS FOR QUEENSLAND: AN ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PATHWAYS 2011 This work was jointly funded by the Queensland Government Department of Employment Economic Development and Innovation and CSIRO and was prepared in collaboration with the Office of the Queensland Chief Scientist. Enquiries should be addressed to: Anna Littleboy Research Director - CSIRO Futures PO Box Kenmore Qld 4069 Australia Phone: +61 7 3327 4180 Fax: +61 7 3327 4455 Mobile: 0419 884 048 [email protected] Stefan Hajkowicz Principal Scientist Ecosciences Precinct GPO Box 2583 BRISBANE QLD 4001 Phone: +61 7 3833 5540 [email protected] SIGNPOSTS FOR QUEENSLAND: AN ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PATHWAYS 2011 Suggested Citation Littleboy, A., Hajkowicz, S., Moody, J., Parsons, R., and Wilhelmseder, L., 2012. Signposts for Queensland: An analysis of future pathways. A report for the Queensland Government Department of Employment Economic Development and Innovation prepared in collaboration with the Office of the Queensland Chief Scientist. CSIRO, Canberra. Important Disclaimer CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. Image Source – Microsoft Clipart This document contains numerous images sourced from Microsoft Clipart. Details about acceptable use of these images is available at www.microsoft.com SIGNPOSTS FOR QUEENSLAND: AN ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PATHWAYS 2011 Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... iii 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 2. Methodology: From global megatrends to Queensland signposts ............................ 2 2.1 Background: The CSIRO Global Megatrends .......................................................... 2 2.2 The Project Process ................................................................................................. 3 2.2.1 Developing a baseline ........................................................................................... 4 2.2.2 The Signposts Workshop ...................................................................................... 5 2.2.3 Aggregation and Synthesis ................................................................................... 5 3. Signposts for Queensland’s Future ................................................................................ 8 3.1 Summary................................................................................................................... 8 3.2 Accelerating Asia ...................................................................................................... 9 3.2.1 Global Context ...................................................................................................... 9 3.2.2 Queensland‘s Opportunities and Challenges ...................................................... 10 3.3 Natural Advantage .................................................................................................. 12 3.3.1 Global Context .................................................................................................... 12 3.3.2 Queensland‘s opportunities and challenges ....................................................... 14 3.4 Hidden Treasure ..................................................................................................... 17 3.4.1 Global Context .................................................................................................... 18 3.4.2 Queensland‘s Opportunities and Challenges ...................................................... 20 3.5 Room to Move ........................................................................................................ 21 3.5.1 Global Context .................................................................................................... 21 3.5.2 Queensland‘s Opportunities and Challenges ...................................................... 22 3.6 Diligent Diversification ............................................................................................ 24 3.6.1 Global Context .................................................................................................... 25 3.6.2 Queensland‘s Opportunities and Challenges ...................................................... 27 4. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 30 References ................................................................................................................................. 31 Appendix A: The CSIRO Megatrends ...................................................................................... 34 i SIGNPOSTS FOR QUEENSLAND: AN ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PATHWAYS 2011 List of Figures Figure 1: The CSIRO Global Megatrends .................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2: The Queensland signposts research process .............................................................................. 3 Figure 3a: An example of workshop output─risks and opportunities arising at the intersection of global trends and Queensland attributes. .................................................................................................. 6 Figure 3b: Aggregation of workshop outcomes (risks, opportunities and attributes) around the final project outcome. ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 4: Signposts for Queensland's Future .............................................................................................. 8 Figure 5: The shifting centre of gravity of the world economy from 1980 to 2030........................................ 9 Figure 6: Changing shares of global GDP over two decades (Data source: OECD, 2010) ........................ 10 Figure 7: Annual urbanisation rates for India and China (Data source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2010). ............................................................................................. 10 Figure 8a: Commodity production and decline in ore grade (After Mudd (2009) ........................................ 13 Figure 8b: Commodity production and decline in ore grade (After Mudd (2009) Reproduced with permission ..................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 9: Modelled climate change. CSIRO 2010 ......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 10: Life expectancy at Birth for Australians (Source: ABS, 2008). .................................................. 18 Figure 11: Estimates of Australia‘s superannuation savings gap (Data Source: Rice Warner, 2010) ........ 19 Figure 12: Percentage of Queensland Population Over 65 years (Data source ABS 2011) ....................... 20 Figure 13: Price Instability in differing commodities (data source UNCTAD 2011) ..................................... 25 Figure 14: World agriculture, minerals and energy prices (Source: World Bank 2011a) ............................ 26 Figure 15: Rolling 10 year yield on the S&P 500 Source: Datastream, Illustration: Allianz ......................... 26 Figure 16: Composition of Queensland exports for 2009-10 in A$ billions (Data source DFAT, 2011). ..... 29 ii SIGNPOSTS FOR QUEENSLAND: AN ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PATHWAYS 2011 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Queensland‘s abundant natural wealth, tropical location and strong social system offer potential for a vibrant economy, society and environment in the 21st Century. To capitalise on these attributes in the face of an increasingly uncertain global context, a foresight project has been undertaken by CSIRO for the Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation (DEEDI) and the Office of the Queensland Chief Scientist. CSIRO investigated trends, risks and opportunities for the future of Queensland through a literature review, horizon scanning, data collation, interviews and a workshop that brought together senior representatives of government, industry and the science community. As a result, five interlinked ―signposts‖ have been developed. These signposts are intended to stimulate long range thinking about the future of Queensland─thinking that transcends current jurisdictional and business boundaries. Two signposts point the way to evolved building blocks of Queensland─its people, culture and infrastructure. Two explore the way Queensland interacts with the world, both as contributors to a global economy and as guardians of significant