RICHARD P. CINCOTTA & ROBERT ENGELMAN About Population Action International Population Action International (PAI) is a research-based advocacy organi- zation that works to increase global political and financial support for effective population policies and programs grounded in individual rights. The organization seeks to make clear the linkages between population, reproductive health, the environment and development. At the heart of PAI’s mission is its commitment to the expansion of volun- tary family planning, other reproductive health services, and educational and economic opportunities for girls and women. Together these strategies promise to improve the lives of individual women and their families while also slowing the world’s population growth. PAI fosters the development of U.S. and international policy on urgent population issues through an integrated program of policy research, public education and political advocacy. PAI reaches out to government leaders and opinion makers through the dissemination of strategic, action-oriented publications, broader efforts to inform public opinion, and coalitions with other development, reproductive health and environmental organizations. Before January 31, 2000: 1120 19th Street, NW Suite 550 Washington, DC 20036 USA © Population Action International, 2000 After January 31, 2000: Material from this publication may be reproduced provided Population Action 1300 19th Street, NW International and the authors are acknowledged as the source. Second Floor ISBN: 1-889735-04-3 Washington, DC 20036 USA Library of Congress Number: 99-64886 Website: http://www.populationaction.org Photography: Front cover, Orang-utan, Jessie Cohen, National Zoological Park, Smithsonian Institution. Back cover, ©Rebecca Janes. Acknowledgments 2 Population Action International Action Population This publication represents Population Action International’s first effort to work with geographic information systems, and in this endeavor the authors were greatly assisted by Kate Sebastian, Margret Bartels, Onyango Okello and Uwe Deichmann. We would also like to thank Lee Hannah and Ned Horning at Conservation International (CI) for their assistance with human disturbance data, Jorgen Thomsen, Tania Tarrar, Lata Iyer and Russell Mittermeier (also of CI) for their assistance with aspects of the biodiversity hotspots, and Aun Ling Lim at Population Reference Bureau for her assistance with national demographic infor- mation. Bruce Byers provided research assistance, and valuable reviews were offered by David Blockstein, Alan Bornbusch, Frederick Meyerson, Norman Myers and David Pimentel. We thank Dan Sperling for his edits to style and con- tent and Anne Marie Amantia and Victoria Stubbs for their assistance in tracking literature. Responsibility for the analysis and any views expressed in this publica- tion rest with the authors alone. Geographic Information Systems Analysis: Jennifer Wisnewski Research Assistance: Bonnie Dye and Akia Talbot ContentsContents The Earth’s Biodiversity and Human Population ...................................................................... 4 Key Terms and Definitions ......................................................................................................5 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 6 Box: Recommendations ..................................................................................................... 9 Box: Sylphion: A Natural Contraceptive and Its Loss .......................................................... 10 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 11 Box: Relative Scarcity: Apes on the Edge ............................................................................ 12 I. Biodiversity In Brief .......................................................................................................... 15 Box: Relating Habitat Area to Species Numbers .................................................................. 19 Box: The Red Queen’s Dowry ............................................................................................ 20 Box: Banking on Genes to Feed the Future ......................................................................... 22 II. Four Waves of Human Influence ...................................................................................... 24 Box: The Nature of Islands ................................................................................................ 27 Box: An Epoch in the Making ............................................................................................ 30 III. Nature Replaced: Prospects for Our Species .................................................................... 33 3 Box: Human Fertility Change in the Highly Biodiverse Countries ......................................... 35 Place Nature’s Box: Bordering on Uncertainty: Considering the United Nations Population Projections ........ 36 Box: Population Momentum .............................................................................................. 39 IV. The Role of Population Growth ........................................................................................ 40 Box: Places Apart: Military Tensions and Biodiversity ......................................................... 44 Box: Suburban Predators ................................................................................................... 49 Box: Biodiversity, Property Rights and Population Growth .................................................. 52 V. Population Growth and the Global Biodiversity Hotspots .................................................. 56 Box: Key to the Global Biodiversity Hotspots and Major Tropical Wilderness Areas .............. 58 Box: Hotspot Population Profile – Madagascar .................................................................... 65 Box: Hotspot Population Profile – California ....................................................................... 68 VI. Strategies ........................................................................................................................ 69 Box: Learning from Biosphere 2 ......................................................................................... 73 Centerpiece Map: People and Biological Diversity: Population in the Global Biodiversity Hotspots, 1995 Appendices Appendix 1: Data Sources and Methodology ...................................................................... 75 Appendix 2: List of Figures and Their Sources .................................................................... 79 Earth’s Biological Diversity and Human Population Existing Species Probably between 7 million and 15 million species Human Population World population, 1900: ~1.6 billion1 World population, 1950: 2.5 billion2 World population, 1999: 6.0 billion2 Threatened Species Assessed Species Proportion Listed as Threatened3 of total Vascular plants 33,798 12.5 percent Mammals 1,096 25 percent Birds 970 11 percent Reptiles 253 20 percent Amphibians 124 25 percent Fishes 734 34 percent 4 The 25 Global Biodiversity Hotspots Population Action International Action Population World land area (minus ice, bare rock): 134.9 million square kilometers4 Original extent of the 25 hotspots: 17.5 million square kilometers5 Area in hotspots remaining in natural vegetation: 2.1 million square kilometers5 World population, 1995: 5.7 billion people2 Population in the 25 hotspots, 1995: 1.1 billion people6 World population density, 1995: 42 people per square kilometer2 Population density in the 25 hotspots, 1995: 73 people per square kilometer6 2 World population growth rate, 1995 to 2000: 1.3 percent References Population growth rate in the 25 hotspots, 1995 to 2000: 1.8 percent6 1. J-N. Biraben, Population (Paris) 34,1 (1979):13. 2. UN Population Division, 1998. Units of Measurement 3. IUCN-World Conservation Union, 1996 1 kilometer = 0.621 miles (animals) & 1998 (plants). 4. UN Food and Agriculture 1 hectare = 2.47 acres Organization, 1998. 1 square kilometer = 100 hectares = 0.39 square miles 5. Conservation International, 1999. 6. Population data estimated by 1 kilogram = 2.2 pounds Population Action International. Key Terms and Definitions Ecological Terms Extinction: in this report, the complete, Threatened species: species that have been Biodiversity (or Biological diversity): the permanent loss of a species to the planet assigned to one of three IUCN Red List diversity of living organisms and all the as a whole. categories—either vulnerable, endan- gered or critically endangered. interconnections that support life on Earth. Habitat: the particular environment in which a species or breeding population lives. Biological invasion: processes by which Demographic Terms Local biodiversity loss: in this report, the species become established in ecosys- Population growth rate: the percentage of loss of local breeding populations and/or tems to which they are not native. These the present population by which a popu- their habitat, and thus the likely loss of species are commonly called biological lation increases or decreases annually. invaders, invasive species or invading genetic variation and reserve individuals. Annual growth increment: the number of species. They are often weeds, pests and Protected area: a geographically defined disease-causing organisms. people added to a population or subtract- area