OCTOBER, 1931 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE WASHINGTON VOLUME II NUMBER 10 TRENDS Your records may not show them. Research does. TRENDS are not determined merely by studying your plant or your customers. Research traces the direction your industry is taking, not only in your own selling community but over the whole Continent, even the world; and indicates whether your organization can follow wherever the arrow points to greater sales, increased profits. THE SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS starts you at the first tee in your trail of trends with a summary of the current business situation and of developments in your field. It then follows through with specific data related to your own activities—prices, production, stocks, new orders, unfilled orders, exports, retail sales, employment, wages, and other basic figures. TRENDS thus trailed by facts lead to seasonal or permanent adjustments in your business; explorations into new territories; perhaps, new undertakings. Your records will show the results of this research—a larger net on your income statement, a greater surplus on your balance sheet. Volume 11 OCTOBER, 1931 Number 10 WEEKLY DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER 26, 1931 MONTHLY DATA THROUGH AUGUST SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS PUBLISHED BY UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON CONTENTS Page Monthly business indicators . 2 Business situation summarized 3 Finance 4 1931 in comparison 6 Commodity prices 7 Employment 8 Domestic trade __ 9 Foreign trade 10 Transportation 11 Construction _ __ __ _ _ 12 Agriculture 13 Iron and steel industry _ 14 Metals and metal products _ 15 Automobile and rubber industries _ 16 Textiles industry 17 Food industries 18 Forest products industry 19 Miscellaneous industries 20 New and revised series 21 Weekly business statistics ___ 22 Monthly business statistics (Index) 23 Subscription price of the SUBVEY OF CUBBENT BUSINESS Is $1.50 a year which includes the 12 monthly numbers, the annual supple- ment, and the 52 weekly supplements; single copies (monthly), 10 cents annual supplement, 25 cents. Foreign subscriptions without weekly supplements, $2.50; single copies (monthlyissues),including postage, 14 cents; annual supplement, 36 cents. Make remit- tances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C., by postal money order, express order, or New York draft. Currency at sender's risk. Postage stamps or foreign money not accepted 78699—31 1 1 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS October, 1931 Monthly Business Indicators 1923-1925=100 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 140 140 !20 ieo—; 100 100 80 ^ FACTORY EMPLOYMENT FACTORY PAYROLLS 125 120 ADJUSTED* 100 TTTTH^i 111 75'' " " ''' " 60 UL TOTAL FREIGHT CAR LOADINGS CAR LOADINGS L.C.L. 130 120 r UNADJUSTED ADJUSTED* 100 60 60 DEPARTMENT STORE SALES WHOLESALE PRICES 220 120 100 100 60 U VALUE OF EXPORTS VALUE OF IMPORTS 150 150 100 100 50 j j M ! 1111 i 11 11111111 111 | m 1111111 i i . 11111 111111 m i n*H>i 11 50liliU_LiJLLLl BANK DEBITS OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY BUILDING CONTRACTS AWARDED ZOO zoo UNADJUSTED 150 150 iOO 100 50 1 III i 50 1927 I92S 1929 1930 1931 !927 1926 1929 1930 !93i * ADJUSTMENT FOR NUMBER OF WORKING DAYS AND SEASONAL VARIATION SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Business Situation Summarized T3USINESS continues extremely dull, arid the Probably the most encouraging feature of the -L* seasonal increase which usually occurs at this time month was the continued stability of wholesale prices, of the year has been slow in developing. Industrial the index of which has remained substantially un- production in August receded slightly from the July changed since June. The severe decline in construc- level, arid the adjusted index fell below that of last tion awards in early August was canceled in a measure December. Declines of about equal proportions in by the subsequent increase, although the total for the manufacturing and mineral production caused the month was off more than seasonally. general index to drop 3.6 per cent below July and 12 Reserve bank credit outstanding increased sharply per cent below August, 1930. Recession during the during August, primarily as a result of continued cur- month was pronounced in the iron and steel, automo- rency withdrawals and the transfer of an additional bile, cement, and petroleum industries. Activity in volume of foreign bank funds from the money markets major lines of consumers' goods continued on a rela- to deposits in the reserve banks. Changes in money tively favorable plane, resulting in pay-roll gains in rates were negligible, and the market was character- the textile, food products, and leather industries. Silk and cotton consumption in August were substantially ized by continued ease. Stock prices in August fluctu- in excess of a year ago, and the output of boots and ated within a narrow range, but in September acute shoes was the largest since October, 1929. The ad- weakness carried the market below the June lows. justed employment index was slightly below July, Bond prices have also been reactionary. Gold hold- while the unadjusted index of pay rolls was unchanged. ings advanced in August, but more recently important Distribution indexes have also failed to expand. amounts have been placed under earmark for foreign Freight-car loadings again declined, the adjusted index account as a result of the unsettlement abroad. New receding about 5 per cent below July. Department capital issues were relatively small. Commercial store sales were larger, but the increase was less than failures in August decreased, both in number and lia- seasonal. Bank debits outside New York were about bilities involved, but bank suspensions were more 10 per cent lower than in July, and have not increased numerous and the deposits affected were the largest so far in September. since last December. MONTHLY BUSINESS INDEXES Factory em- i Department FForeig< n , I c trial produc- ployment Freight car loadings store sales, i tradet , fc Wholesale prices tion and pay rolls i value 1value M o ! , - - ii00 IK s * Merchan- ota, 3S m d T l dise, 1. c. 1. , g OQ *3 s > rolls » 81 ad d food , d y d far d i n » » d ' employ pa f d d Year and month f d index !* an adjuste 4 s? d , * i s o o t d d r M tha adjuste s juste i , adjuste d r uct , e k unadjuste commoditie ees | m Adjuste Unadjuste Unadjuste Manufactures Minerals Amoun Ban Total Numbe I Adjuste Combine Far Unadjuste Export I Monthly average 1923-1925=100 ! Monthly average j 1 1926=100 1929: August 123 124 j 115 103 111 115 107 106 106 84 111 100 114 143.7 j 122 i 97.7 107.1 1930: August 91 1 90 96 84 ' 82 96 89 95 95 i 77 102 vs 68 106.2 i 81 ; 84.0 84.9 83.3 September __ ! 91 i 90 94 83 . 83 99 87 99 95 i 103 99 82 70 107.7 j 81 1 84.2 85.3 82.8- October . 87 : 85 98 82 81 97 86 97 93 112 102 86 77 120.1 ! 78 1 82.6 82.6 81.5. November . 85 ! 84 92 81 75 86 84 94 92 113 98 76 63 99.9 76 | 80.4 79.3 80.1 December 82 | 80 94 80 74 74 84 86 92 I 165 94 72 65 117.2 73 78.4 75.2 79.0« 1 931: January i 83 81 90 78 ' 68 74 82 83 90 ;i 79 97 66 57 110.0 71 i 77.0 73.5 77.8, February : 86 i 86 88 78 73 74 80 87 89 !i 80 98 59 54 86.6 79 ! 75.5 70.1 77.1 March _. i 88 88 87 78 75 75 80 89 89 H 92 97 62 65 98.4 77 ! 74.5 70.6 75.6 April I 90 90 92 78 74 77 80 91 88 !! 101 106 57 58 99.5 73 i 73.3 70.1 74.2 May. 89 89 86 78 72 79 79 92 89 ii 97 97 54 56 95. 6 66 ! 71.3 67.1 73.2 June . 84 84 85 76 68 77 77 89 89 \\ 90 95 49 55 98.4 64 70.0 65.4 71.9 July 83 i 83 84 75 64 78 76 87 88 !! 65 91 48 54 93.5 61 70.0 64.9 71.8 August 80 80 81 74 64 76 72 86 86 i| 68 90 43 51 83.8 60 70.2 63.5 72.3 Monthly average, January ! throug h August: [ 1929 122 123 115 1 102 109 105 107 104 105 96 111 112 116 137.7 122 97. 0 105. 4 92.9 98 1930- !i 101 101 102 91 92 93 95 110 ;l 91 105 87 84 120. 2 98 ! 88.9 92.4 87.2 1931--. 85 85 87 77 70 76 78 88 89 ,| 84 96 55 56 95.7 69 i 72. 7 68.2 74.2 : j si ii 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation. 2 Adjusted for number of working days. SUKVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS October, 1931 Finance—Credit and Banking and banking statistics during August end of August reflected several recent and significant were indicative of the continued low level of developments. The marked increases in Federal business activity. Bank debits in New York City, reserve notes in circulation during a month of receding which reflect to a fair degree conditions in the security business activity is apparently influenced in part by markets, fell during August approximately 16 per the tendency of individuals and institutions to main- cent below those of the previous month.