a Critical Insight into a Rapidly Changing World from 60 Future Thinkers www.fastfuturepublishing.com Critical Insight into a Rapidly Changing World from 60 Future Thinkers Series Curator and Editor Rohit Talwar Co-Editors Steve Wells April Koury and Alberto Rizzoli THE FUTURE OF BUSINESS First published in United Kingdom and United States of America by Fast Future Publishing 2015 FutureScapes is an imprint of Fast Future Publishing in 2015 www.fastfuturepublishing.com For Information contact [email protected] Copyright © Fast Future Publishing Ltd 2015 Paperback ISBN 978 0 9932958 0 5 Ebook 978 0 9932958 1 2 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Rohit Talwar would like to thank Darren Eden of the Academy of Greatness www.academyofgreatness.co.uk whose inspirational coaching led to the birth of this idea and whose constant support and challenge helped us stay focused on creating, nurturing and loving the book through to completion. Cover and interior designed by Rachel Lawston, www.lawstondesign.com Paperback interior was designed in collaboration with Alberto Rizzoli Rachel Lawston would like to give special thanks to Alberto Rizzoli and April Koury for their support in the design process Ebook interior designed by Alberto Rizzoli Printed in UK by The Print Guild Printed in USA by Bookmasters For Charlotte, Hannah and Alex - the future is yours to create and embrace Contents INTRODUCTION Business in the Age of Disruptive Convergence, Rohit Talwar and Steve Wells ...............................................................................................1 SECTION 1 Visions of the Future – What are the global shifts on the horizon? ........................................................................................ 22 Global drivers of change, April Koury, Iva Lazarova and Rohit Talwar ...........................................24 The Future of Business – Navigating the Next Horizon, Rohit Talwar .......................................................................................... 29 Forecasting Future Disruptions – Strategic Change Is Inevitable, Professor Bill Halal ................................................................................ 50 The Automated, Digitized, and Simulated Future, Gray Scott ........72 Redefining the Relationship of Man and Machine, Gerd Leonhard .......................................................................................82 Can 3D Printing Destroy Capitalism and Restore Government? Jeffrey Joslin ............................................................................................94 v CONTENTS SECTION 2 Tomorrow’s Global Order – What are the emerging political and economic transformations that could reshape the environment for society and business? .......................................... 100 Global Drivers of Change, April Koury, Iva Lazarova and Rohit Talwar .........................................102 The Prospect of Democracy 2.0, David Wood ................................. 111 The Comeback of Value Creation as the True Measure of Results in Business, Pétur Albert Haraldsson ..................................................123 The Impact of Accelerating 3D Printing Technology on Economic Systems, Sally Morem .........................................................................129 The Future of the Global Monetary and Financial System – Time for a New Bretton Woods? Adrian Pop ...................................134 It’s Not Money Until It’s Postmoney, Boyan Ivantchev, Ph.D. ...........139 Investing in International Aid and Development, Norman Rebin...147 SECTION 3 The Emerging Societal Landscape – Who are we becoming, how will we live? ........................................151 Global Drivers of Change, April Koury, Iva Lazarova and Rohit Talwar .........................................153 Understanding Tomorrow’s Consumer Landscape, Anne Lise Kjaer ....................................................................................163 Generation Z in the Workforce, Anne Boysen ...................................169 Education 2025 – Building a Generation of Problem Solvers, Alberto Rizzoli ......................................................................................177 The Future of Personal Income and Expenses, Michael Nuschke ...182 The Future Potential of Consciousness in Business, Rishi Haldanya .....................................................................................187 vi THE FUTURE OF BUSINESS The Future Derives From Place Choices, Stephen Roulac ...............190 SECTION 4 Social Technologies – How will tomorrow’s technologies permeate our everyday lives? ..................................199 Global Drivers of Change, April Koury, Iva Lazarova and Rohit Talwar .........................................201 The Future of the Internet, Rohit Talwar and Alexandra Whittington ............................................ 205 The Future of Digital Media – The Freexpensive Prerogative, Yates Buckley ........................................................................................224 Mobile 2030: Scenarios for the Role of Mobile Technology in Society, Alexandra Whittington and Amir Bar ................................... 233 The Impact of Wearable Lifestyle Technologies and Gamification on Business and Society, David Wortley ...........................................246 Body-Machine Convergence, Ian Pearson .......................................255 The Rise of Neurosocial Networks – The Prospects for Networking our Brains in the Next 20 Years, Martin Dinov and Andrew Vladimirov .................................................265 Life in 2035: Future Consciousness, Cyborgs and Wisdom, Victor Vahidi Motti ..............................................................................273 The Potential for Technological Singularity and its Future Impacts on Society, Anish Mohammed ............................................................281 SECTION 5 Disruptive Developments – How might new technologies enable business innovation? ................................... 288 Global Drivers of Change, April Koury, Iva Lazarova and Rohit Talwar ........................................ 290 The Decentralization of Everything? Exploring the Business of the vii CONTENTS Blockchain, Rohit Talwar and Alexandra Whittington ....................... 295 The Future of the Phone Call, Dean Bubley ..................................... 309 Will Artificial Intelligence Eat the World?Calum Chace ..................319 From Clouds to Networks Without Infrastructure, Peter Cochrane .................................................................................... 333 Future Developments and Opportunities for Deep Learning Artificial Neural Networks,Elias Rut and Martin Dinov .................. 340 How Massive Simulation Models could Transform Decision Making in Business, Government and Society, Vinay Gupta .......................349 The Future of Events and Networking, Tiana Sinclair ................... 354 Revolutionizing Interactive Entertainment and Marketing in Public Places through Ambient Interactivity, Michael Mascioni .................359 SECTION 6 Surviving and Thriving – How can business adapt to a rapidly changing reality? What are the critical success factors for business in a constantly evolving world? ....................................... 365 Global Drivers of Change, April Koury, Iva Lazarova and Rohit Talwar .........................................367 Experience Rules: How Stakeholder Experiences will Drive Profit into the Future, Joyce Gioia ................................................................375 Acceleration of the Slow Movement, Dana Klisanin ...................... 382 Business Agility: The Future of Work, Laura Goodrich ................... 386 The Future of Work, Talent and Recruitment, Matt Alder ..............391 The Future of Talent Management: Recruiting, Workforce Planning, Leadership Development and Performance Management, Kevin Wheeler ......................................................................................395 viii THE FUTURE OF BUSINESS Making the Shift from Disruptive to Hyper Scalable, Omar Mohout ..................................................................................... 406 SECTION 7 Industry Futures – How might old industries change and what new ones could emerge? .................................................416 Global Drivers of Change, April Koury, Iva Lazarova and Rohit Talwar .........................................418 The Future of Aviation, Andrew Charlton ..........................................420 Futures Journalism: A Manifesto, Anna Simpson .............................425 Shaping the Future of Journalism, Puruesh Chaudhary.................. 430 Constructing the Future, Julian Snape ............................................. 435 The Future Business of Body Shops, B.J. Murphy .......................... 442 The Rise of the Cosmeceutical Sector, David Saintloth ..................452 The Great Energy Controversy of 2030, James H. Lee .....................459 Space-Based Solar Power and Wireless Power Transmission, Devin Daniels ...................................................................................... 462 SECTION 8 Embracing the Future – What are the futures and foresight tools, methods and processes that we can use to explore,