Friday, November 12 Room La Fontaine A La Fontaine C Session A Session B Chair: Walter Isard Chair: Pat Regan 9:30 Robert Muncaster, Arms Races Scott Gartner, Public Opinion, 911 and Evolutionary Games and the Network Effects of Casu- alties Peace Science Society (International) 10:00 Nil Satana, Commitment or Pure Terrence Chapman, Coalitions, Politics? The Effect of Domestic Competition and Conflict: The Thirty-Eighth North American Meeting Factors on Third Party Involve- Political Determinants of Ethno- November 12–14, 2004 ment in Civil Wars Nationalism Houston, Texas 10:30 Break Session A Session B Chair: Ray Dacey Chair: Paul Diehl 11:00 Rafael Reuveny, Do Goods Mat- Navin Bapat, State Support for ter? Political Determinants of Militant Non-State Actors Disaggregated Bilateral Trade Flows 11:30 Shawn E. Rowan and Paul Walter Isard and Jiyoun An, On a Hensel, Declining Benefits of Global Systems Model for Reduc- Conquest? Economic Develop- ing Three Evils: Terrorism, Pov- ment and Territorial Claims in erty and Environmental Degrada- the Americas and Europe tion 12:00 Page Fortna, Where Have all the Scott Gates and David Lektzian, Victories Gone? War Outcomes Drugs, Governance and Civil in Historical Perspective? Conflict 12:30 Lunch Break Session A Session B Chair: Cliff Morgan Chair: Paul Hensel 2:00 Bahar Leventoglu and Ahmer Benjamin Fordham and Victor Tarar, The Logic of Public Com- Asal, Billiard Balls and Snow- mitments in International and flakes: Do the Unit-level Charac- Crisis Bargaining teristics of Leading States Influ- ence Systemic Outcomes? 2:30 Holger Schmidt, When (and Kelly Kadera and Daniel Morey, Why) Do Brokers Have to Be Systemic Patterns of Conflict and Honest? Impartiality and Third- Cooperation Party Support for Peace Imple- mentation After Civil Wars, 1945 - 1999 16 1 Friday, November 12 Friday, November 12 Room La Fontaine A La Fontaine C Room La Fontaine C 8:00 PM 3:00 Christopher Butler and Oraz David Lake, Authority in Interna- Control Variables, Specification, and Knowledge Accumulation Kichiyev, Prescription or Predic- tional Relations: Beyond the Bal- Chair: Kelly M. Kadera tion: Testing the Robustness of ance of Power James Lee Ray, Constructing Multivariate Analyses the Nash Bargaining Solution Christopher H. Achen, Let’s Put Garbage-Can Regressions and Gar- 3:30 Break bage-Can Probits Where They Belong Session A Session B Harvey Starr, Cumulation from Proper Specification: Theory, Logic, Chair: Will Moore Chair: Benjamin Fordham Research Design, and ‘Nice Laws’ 4:00 Colin Flint, Just War Theory, Amy Yuen, Third Party Interven- Bruce Russett and John R. Oneal, Rule of Three, Let It Be: When Hegemonic Power, and the War tion and the Dynamics of War and More is Better in Iraq: Exploring the Geo- Peace graphic Axioms Underpinning Kevin A. Clarke, The Phantom Menace: Omitted Variable Bias in Geopolitical Rhetoric and their Econometric Research Implications for Scientific Re- search Kelly M. Kadera and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, Heeding Ray’s Ad- vice: Exploring Confounding and Intervening Variables in Democ- 4:30 Karen Petersen, Interstate Con- Renato Corbetta and William J. ratic Peace Studies flict and Regime Type: Why a Di- Dixon, In It for the Long Haul? chotomy Disguises Important Third Parties and the Duration of Variations in Behavior Interventions in Militarized Dis- putes 5:00 Zaryab Iqbal and Christopher Lewis Snider, Cheryl Van Den Zorn, Time, Space, and the Poli- Handel and Jason Strakes, Pales- tics of Refugee Flows in Africa tine’s Emerging Winning Coali- tion and its Politics towards a Two-State Solution 5:30 Alex Braithwaite, Conflict Hot- Patrick James, MAR and Third Spots, Security Environments, and Party Intervention in Ethnic Con- the Diffusion of Dispute Onsets, flicts 1816 - 2001 6:00 Global Vision Presentation on Forecasting Room Presidential Room (A light meal will be served.) Panel Discussion: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James Morrow, and Solomon Polachek Some Thoughts About Societal Forecasting: Paul Williamson, Presi- dent, Global Vision, Inc., 2 15 Saturday, November 13 Saturday, November 13 Room Room La Fontaine A La Fontaine C La Fontaine A La Fontaine C Session A Session B Session A Session B Chair: Kristian Skrede Gleditsch Chair: Sara McLaughlin Mitchell Chair: Carlos Seiglie Chair: Kelly Kadera 8:30 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Kyle Beardsley, Seeking Counsel- 2:00 Johan Moyersoen, Identifying Ref- Amanda E. Wooden, Economic Alastair Smith, Foreign Aid and ing: The Strategic Selection of erence Dependent Robust Posi- Disparity and Environmental Policy Concessions Mediation in International Crises tions for Stable Peace Conflict: How does Social Strife Affect Environmental Kuznets 9:00 Bear Braumoeller, A New Sys- Brandon Prins and Mark Souva, Curve Analyses? temic Theory of International Why Don’t You Trust Me? Power Politics: Nested Politics and Preponderance and Conflict 2:30 Derrick Frazier, When Do They Kathy L. Powers, Regional Trade Great Power Conflict Ask for Help? An Analysis of the Agreements, International Rivers Conditions that Foster Disputant and International Conflict 9:30 David Sacko and Charles Jean-Pierre Langlois and Initiated Mediation in Militarized Boehmer, Political Community Catherine Langlois, Bargaining Interstate Disputes and the Escalation of Interstate Between Nation States: A Game Violence Theoretic Approach 3:00 Dina Zinnes, The Territoriality Peter Brecke, Power Parity, 10:00 Paul Diehl, Gary Goertz and Paul Senese and Frank Zagare, Puzzle Power Preponderance, and Vio- James Klein, The New Rivalry Accounting for Variations in Post lent Conflict Data Set: Procedures and Pat- Dispute Peace 3:30 Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Pelin Eralp and Jonathan terns Erik Gartzke, The Ties that Bias: Wilkenfeld, The Evolving Nature 10:30 Break Theorizing and Operationalizing of International Crises, 1945- Components of Spatial Depend- 2001 Session A Session B ence Chair: Jim Morrow Chair: Scott Bennett 4:30 Poster Session 11:00 Karl DeRouen, Jr., Recurring Alex Mintz, Ten Myths About Sui- James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University Internal Conflict: Explaining the cide Bombers Dore Commons Phenomenon in the Context of the Asia-Pacific Region Continuous shuttle service available from the Warwick to the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy from 4:00 - 6:00 11:30 Laura Wimberley, Pyrrhic Andrew J. Enterline, Dawn Miller Peace: Modeling Post-War and J. Michael Greig, The Sur- M. Rodwan Abouharb, Economic Liberalization and its Impact on Compliance vival of Imposed Polities Civil Conflict Susan Allen, Punishment Strategies and Mass Political Action: The 12:00 Andrew G. Long, Armed Con- Raul Caruso, A Trade Institution Case of Economic Sanctions flict and Bilateral Trade: A Ra- as a Peaceful Institution? tional Expectations Approach Joe Clare, Domestic Costs, Interdependence and War 12:30 Lunch Break Sarah E. Croco, Strategic Support: The Timing of Alignment Deci- sions in International Disputes David Cunningham, Vetoing Resolution: The Effect of Insurgent Characteristics on the Dynamics of Civil War 14 3 Saturday, November 13 Sunday, November 14 Katja Favretto, Prelude to a War: Superpower Mediation in the Room La Fontaine A La Fontaine C Shadow of Coercion Session A Session B Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham and Emily Beaulieu, The Ballot Chair: Douglas Lemke Chair: Richard J. Stoll and the Bullet: Understanding Separatist Strategies 9:00 Patrick McDonald and Kevin James D. Morrow, Patterns of Stephen Gent, The Strategic Dynamics of Major Power Intervention Sweeney, The Achilles’ Heel of Compliance with the Laws of War Faten Ghosn, Getting to the Table and Getting to Yes: Negotiating Liberal IR Theory? Globaliza- International Conflict tion and Conflict in the Pre- World War I Era Valentin Krustev, Extending the Liberal Peace: Interdependence and 9:30 Katherine Barbieri and Rafael Michael Koch, “States Behaving the Duration of Militarized Conflict Reuveny, Globalization and Badly” Domestic Diversionary Shuhei Kurizaki, Efficient Diplomacy in Crisis Bargaining Civil War Onset Incentives and the Behavior of States in the International System Bradley Podliska, Deterrence, Signaling, and Enduring Rivalries: The Demonstration Effects of the U.S. Revolution in Military Affairs 10:00 Mark Crescenzi, Jacob Kathman Branislav Slantchev and Bahar and Stephen Long, Reputation, Leventoglu, Into Ruin With Eyes Burcu Savun, Territorial Issues in a Bargaining Framework History, and Escalation Wide Open: A War of Attrition with Resource Constraints Megan Shannon, The Expansion of International Organizations 10:30 Break Patricia Sullivan, Major Power States and Limited War: War Aims and War Outcomes Session A Session B Chair: Mark Crescenzi Chair: William Reed Atsushi Tago, Act United, but How? U.S. Multilateral Use of Force between 1948 and 1998 11:00 Solomon Polachek and Carlos Brian Lai, Rally Around the Tri- Room Kelly International Conference Facility Seiglie, Globalization and Inter- Color: Examining the Effect of national Conflict War and Uses of Force on the 5:45 Business Meeting Popularity of French Presidents 6:30 Presidential Address, Ray Dacey 11:30 D. Scott Bennett, Applying New Belinda Bragg and Nehemia Geva, The Status of Likelihood Claims in International Methods to Study Balance of Translating Casualties into Pain: Relations and Peace Science Power Dynamics in the Escala- Issue Salience in International Reception Follows in the Dore Commons tion of Militarized Disputes Conflicts and the Relative Impact of Death 12:00