POLITICAL REGIONAL STUDIES RUSSIAN SOFT POWER IN THE BALTIC STATES THROUGH THE LENS OF RESEARCH: TRADITIONS, COMPETITION, CONFRONTATION V. V. Vorotnikov a, b N. A. Ivanova c а MGIMO University, Received 25 March 2019 76, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, Russia, 119454 doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2019-3-6 b The Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences © Vorotnikov V. V., Ivanova N. A., 2019 11-3, Mokhovaya st., Moscow, Russia, 125009 c Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company 26—5, Leninkskaya Sloboda, Moscow, Russia, 115280 In this article, we aim to analyse the research discourse in the Baltic countries (Es- tonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) as regards Russian soft power, which is considered as hard power, and to compare the theses that dominate this discourse with the actual interactions between Russia and the three states in media, education, and culture. Each Baltic country has built a system of political and legal restrictions to diminish the effect of Russian soft power, which is considered in terms of hard power, i.e. as a threat to national security. The current forms of Russian soft power are becoming less productive in the region and their use in the negative political context of bilater- al relations has the opposite effect for Russia — the country loses in reputation and image. The main factor at play is the information content of the Russian-language media space. At odds with the historical and political views of a significant part of the Baltic States’ ruling class, it is becoming the target of counteraction. At the same time, Russian high and mass culture and, partly, educational services are in demand from both Baltic Russian speakers and ethnic Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians. Our analysis shows that the views of Baltic researchers that Russian soft power is politics-driven and foreign to the region are exaggerated and biased. In its turn, Russian soft power in the Baltics retains the potential to aid the country’s foreign policy, being a complement to the latter rather than its direct tool. Keywords: soft power, effect of soft power, Russian foreign policy, Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania To cite this article: Vorotnikov, V. V., Ivanova, N. A. 2019, Russian soft power in the Baltic States through the lens of research: traditions, competition, confrontation, Balt. Reg., Vol. 11, no. 3, p. 107—124. doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2019-3-6. BALTIС REGION ‣ 2019 ‣ Vol. 11 ‣ № 3 108 POLITICAL REGIONAL STUDIES The current situation in world politics and international relations is yet an- other proof that the influence of a state in the world arena depends on not only politics, the economy, and military capacity, but also the ability to be attractive to partners. Today, it is important for a state to have something to offer to its partners, to present its potential in a proper light, and to spread knowledge about it. Joseph Nye gave a classical description of the essence of a state’s at- tractiveness and suggested some techniques to achieve it within his soft power concept presented in the 1990 book Bound to lead: the changing nature of American power [1]. According to Nye, soft power is ‘the ability of states to attract others to their side, seeking to support their own agenda in international relations by demonstrating their cultural and moral values of the attractiveness of the po- litical course and the effectiveness of political institutions’. In his opinion, soft power has three sources: ‘its culture (in places where it is attractive to others), its political values (when it lives up to them at home and abroad), and its for- eign policies (when others see them as legitimate and having moral authority) ’ [2, p. 221]. The British researcher Simon Anholt, who introduced the concept of nation branding, believes that attractiveness of a state translates into power in the world arena, thus enabling it to outperform its competitors in attaining foreign policy goals with fewer efforts [3, p. 2]. Melissa Nisbett [4], Michael J. Waller [5], Jonathan McClory [6], Rhonda Zahrna [7], and others have further explored this aspect of state power outlined in Nye’s concept. Studies into na- tional brands and nation branding (Nicolas Papadopoulos [8], Gyorgy Szondi [9], and others), which focus on the capacity of a state to gain financially from its attractiveness and the attractiveness of national companies and products in the world market, have advanced research in the area. Anholt distinguishes six natural channels through which countries communicate with the world. These are tourism promotion; export of goods and services; national policy; technol- ogy for investment and recruitment of international talent; the reputation of the people and the state in the world; cultural exchange, the reputation of the national culture in the world, and export of culture and sports [10, p. 4]. Zbigniew Brzezinski famously discusses soft power (although without mentioning the term) as a facet of American global power in The Grand Chess- board. He writes: ‘Whatever one may think of its aesthetic values, America’s mass culture exercises a magnetic appeal, especially on the world’s youth. Its attraction may be derived from the hedonistic quality of the lifestyle it proj- ects, but its global appeal is undeniable. American television programs and films account for about three-fourths of the global market. American popu- lar music is equally dominant, while American fads, eating habits, and even clothing are increasingly imitated worldwide. The language of the Internet is V. V. Vorotnikov, N. A. Ivanova 109 English, and an overwhelming proportion of the global computer chatter also originates from America, influencing the content of the global conversation. Lastly, America has become a Mecca for those seeking advanced education … Graduates from American universities are to be found in almost every Cabinet on every continent’ [11, p. 38]. In Russia, the concept of soft power attracted considerable interest in the 2000s when the national leadership embraced the need to restore Russia’s in- fluence in the world. Vladimir Putin, at the time the Prime Minister, was the first to use the term at the highest level. He did so in his article Russia and the changing world (2012). However, the term took on a slightly different mean- ing in his interpretation. In particular, Putin defined soft power as follows: ‘a complex of tools and methods to achieve foreign policy goals without the use of force, through information and other means of influence.’1 Later, the notion was integrated into official documents. Russia’s Foreign policy concept of No- vember 30, 2016, states that ‘ [i] n addition to traditional methods of diplomacy, “soft power” has become an integral part of efforts to achieve foreign policy ob- jectives. This power primarily utilises the tools offered by civil society, as well as various methods and technologies — from information and communication to humanitarian and other types.’2 The Russian researcher Marina Lebedeva pinpointed a serious problem in how soft power is contemplated in Russian literature. In her opinion, it is the dramatic difference between theoretical approaches to the phenomenon. The realistic approach identifies soft power with propaganda and other methods of non-military influence. ‘Nye clearly discriminates between the realistic in- terpretation of soft power, when various means, including attractiveness, are meant to advance a country’s interests, on the one hand, and the situation when interactions result in mutual benefits and cooperation between the parties (the neo-liberal approach), on the other’ [12, p. 215]. Nye advocates the neoliberal approach in which soft power is viewed as based on objective attractiveness, whereas interactions between the parties suggest cooperation and result in mu- tual benefits and collaborative advantage. In Russia, soft power is mostly inter- preted as the use of non-military means to influence the other party [12, p. 213]. This understanding is in line with the realistic approach. 1 Putin, V. V. Rossiya i menyayushchiysya mir [Russia and the changing world]. Moskovksie novosti [Moscow news]. February 21, 2012. URL: http://www.mn.ru/politics/78738 (accessed 16.01.2019). 2 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. The Foreign policy concept of the Russian Federation of 2016. Official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. URL: http://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/ cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2542248 (accessed 16.01.2019). 110 POLITICAL REGIONAL STUDIES In Russia, the systematisation and theoretical contemplation [13; 14; 15] of the resource potential of soft power began in the 2010s. Efforts have been made to create mechanisms for projecting it to the international political environ- ment, including the Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. In this article, we aim to analyse whether the image of Russia’s soft power in the Baltics, as presented in the Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian research dis- course, is consistent with the actual collaborations in the media, education, and culture. Our central hypothesis is that, despite the politics-driven confrontation and natural competition among the soft powers of various actors in the Baltics, Russia’s soft power maintains the potential for being attractive to and sought after by both the titular nations and the local Russian speakers. Russia’s soft power in the Baltics as viewed by Baltic researchers Political relations between Russia and the Baltics today are outright con- frontational; there are increasing downward trends in trade and economic co- operation. Both Russia, on the one hand, and Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, on the other, are prone to conflict in their bilateral relations; this virtually incapaci- tates Russia’s official diplomacy in the Baltics.3 The agents (mass media, NGOs, foundations) and resources of Russia’s and the Baltics’ soft power (cooperation in education, science, culture, and sports) have become almost the only means to support regular dialogue that has shifted to the area of public diplomacy.