Tropical Cyclone Berguitta - Estimated Impacts Warning 21, 17 January 2018 2100 UTC PDC-6S-21A JTWC Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHIELD OF RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 171715Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND A 1758Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS.THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THESE ASCAT PASSES, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES.TC 06S IS TURNING POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A REORIENTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETING BY TAU 96.INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXERT COMPETING INFLUENCES.MARGINAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED-RANGE AS THE TC 06S TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT RECEIVES OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.THE CURRENT, HIGH- CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKERS, WHICH REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 25 FEET.... Estimated Wind Impacts Tropical Cyclone Positions 2018 JAN 15, 06:00Z Ï Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Ï Ï ÏÏÏÏÏ Ï ÏÏÏ Ï ÏÏ Ï Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Ï 2018 JAN 17, 18:00Z )" Ï Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph 2018 JAN 18, 06:00Z Madagascar Ï Ï Tropical Depression: <39 mph Mauritius )"Ï Current Cyclone Position Reunion Ï Est Wind Impacts (TAOS) 2018 JAN 18, 18:00Z Small Trees Sway 22SEP13 - 1800UTC 22SEP13 - 0600UTC Large Trees Sway 2018 JAN 19, 06:00Z Ï 21SEP13 - 1800UTC Branches Breaking Trees Down; some power loss 21SEP13 - 1800UTC Minor Damage; power out 21SEP13 - 0600UTC Moderate Damage 5% of value Ï 2018 JAN 19, 18:00Z Widespread Damage Severe Damage Catastrophic Damage 0 80 160 320 Miles 0 80 160 320 Kilometers Ï 2018 JAN 20, 18:00Z ¯ Estimated Still Water)" ÏStorm Surge Estimated Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Mozambique Ï ÏÏÏÏÏÏÏÏÏ Mauritius )"ÏÏÏ Ï Reunion MaurÏitius Ï Madagascar ReunÏion Ï Ï Ï Ï < 1 in 1-3 ft 1-3 in 3-6 ft Ï 3-6 in 6-9 ft 9-12 ft 6-9 in Ï 12-15 ft 9-12 in 15-20 ft 12-24 in >20 ft > 24 in Pacific Disaster Center | 1/17/2018 | http://www.pdc.org | [email protected] | Data: NOAA, TAOS Estimated Wind Impacts forecasted by Kinetic Analysis Corporation, ESRI The delineation of political boundaries, and associated data shown here do not imply endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center..