Linköping University | Faculty of Arts and Sciences Department of Managment and Engineering International and European Relations Master's thesis-733A27 Spring semester 2021 | ISRN: LIU-IEI-FIL-A--21/03761—SE DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE ARAB SPRING: SUCCESS FACTORS AND FAILURE CAUSES A Comparative analysis of Egypt and Tunisia Author: Ali I. Al-Mohammad Supervisor: Dr. Philippa Barnes Examiner: Dr. Mikael Blomdahl Linköping University SE-581 83 Linköping,Sweden +46 013 28 10 00, www.liu.se I بسم هللا الرحمن الرحيم قل اللهم مالك الملك تؤتي الملك من تشاء وت نزع الملك ممن تشاء وتعز من تشاء وتذل من تشاء بيد ك الخير إنك على كل شيء قدير* (سورة آل عمران :26) In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate “O Allah! Owner of all authorities! You give authority to whoever You will and take it away from whom You will; You honor whoever You will and humiliate whoever You will—all good is in Your Hands. Surely You ˹alone˺ are Most Capable of everything. [Surah Aal-E-Imran: 26] “ You can cut all the flowers but you cannot keep spring from coming” Pablo Neruda II DEDICATION This Thesis is dedicated to the light of my eyes My parents Dear Father (Essa) & Beloved Mother (Yazi) “My Lord! have mercy upon them as they brought me up [when I was] small.” And to the Nobleman Mr. Awad Al-Ali & my dearest cousin Mr. Jassim Al-Thamer May Almighty God bless them and protect them forever III AKNOWLEDGEMENT First and Foremost, I would like to express my limitless gratitude and warm appreciation to my supervisor Dr. Philippa Barnes for the helpful comments, remarks and for always giving necessary suggestions to perfect this research. Besides my supervisor, I would like to thank, from the bottom of my heart, the rest of my thesis committee: Prof. Khalid Khayati, the Co-reader, for his valuable critique, insightful comments, and most especially, for inspiring me to pursue my Master Thesis. And Prof. Mikael Blomdahl, the Examiner, for assessing my thesis, it is a great honor for me. Last but not least; a special thanks to the program coordinator Prof. Per Jansson for his kind help and co-operation throughout my study period. Finally, I would also express my wholehearted thanks to my brothers, sisters, classmates and friends, especially my close friend Talal Haj-ali, for their constant encouragement and support along the way of doing my thesis. Sincerely, Ali Issa Al-Mohammad May 31st , 2021 IV ABSTRACT The theme of this study will be the Arab Spring and democratization. The impact of the Arab Spring has, in one form or another, extended to almost all countries of the Arab region in the MENA. However, this paper will be limited to compare two countries, in particular Tunisia and Egypt by analyzing their democratization and examining how two similar states achieved widely differing outcomes in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. Tunisia and Egypt are both predominantly Muslim-majority, Arabic-speaking countries, and both of them were subject to authoritarian regimes (Ben Ali in Tunisia, Mubarak in Egypt) before the outbreak of the Arab Spring. After the first wave of uprisings, Tunisia made remarkable progress in the transition to democracy, but in Egypt the situation faltered when the army overthrew a democratically elected president and then the country underwent a counter-revolution, bringing it back to square one (i.e. the yoke of tyranny). The four variables that this research will revolve around as an explanation and possible analysis of the secret of this difference in outcomes between these two countries are: the role of the international and regional community, the position of the military and armed forces in the state, the role of religious political parties, and the effectiveness of civil society organizations across the country. After reviewing all four variables, the final result of the paper suggests that the military, religious, international, and civil society variables are the strongest indicators of the reason for the great difference in the democratic progress in both countries. This paper facilitates an understanding of democratization by identifying the critical factors in determining whether a nation's transition from dictatorship to democracy will be successful or not. Key Words: Middle East and North Africa, Arab Spring, Democratization, Egypt, Tunisia. V Word count: * 24 593 * Excluding: dedication, acknowledgement, abstract, table of contents, list of figures, list of tables, list of abbreviations, findings and recommendations, and bibliography. VI Table of Contents DEDICATION................................................................................................................. III AKNOWLEDGEMENT................................................................................................. IV ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... V LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... X LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... X LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................ XI I. CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ......................................................................... 1 1.1 RESEARCH PROBLEM ...................................................................................... 4 1.2 RESEARCH AIM.................................................................................................. 5 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ................................................................................... 5 1.4 RESEARCH MOTIVATIONS.............................................................................. 5 1.5 RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE.............................................................................. 7 DISPOSITION .................................................................................................................. 7 II. CHAPTER TWO: THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES .......................................... 7 2.1 THE CONCEPT OF DEMOCRATIZATION ...................................................... 8 2.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ......................................................................... 9 2.2.1 The significance of the international community ...................................... 10 2.2.2 The impact of the military institution ........................................................ 11 2.2.3 The behavior of Civil society and Islamic parties ..................................... 11 VII 2.2.4 Overlaps and intersections of the prior factors.......................................... 11 2.3 PREVIOUS RESEARCH .................................................................................... 12 III. CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ............................... 16 3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN ......................................................................................... 16 3.2 RESEARCH METHOD ...................................................................................... 17 3.2.1 The position of the international community and the role of the counter- revolution ........................................................................................................... 18 3.2.2 The role of the military institution ............................................................ 18 3.2.3 The effectiveness of civil society organizations ....................................... 19 3.2.4 The political pragmatism of political parties with an Islamic reference ... 19 3.3 LIMITATIONS IN METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ................................. 20 3.4 ALTERNATIVE METHODS ............................................................................. 21 IV. CHAPTER FOUR: EGYPT CASE STUDY .......................................................... 23 4.1 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND ........................................................................ 23 4.2 THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND THE COUNTER- REVOLUTION ......................................................................................................... 25 4.3 THE MILITARY INSTITUTION ....................................................................... 27 4.4 CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS(CSOs) ................................................... 30 4.5 THE ISLAMIC PARTIES ................................................................................... 32 V. CHAPTER FIVE: TUNISIA CASE STUDY .......................................................... 35 5.1 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND ........................................................................ 35 5.2 THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND THE COUNTER- REVOLUTION ......................................................................................................... 38 5.3 THE MILITARY INSTITUTION ....................................................................... 40 5.4 CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS (CSOs) .................................................. 42 VIII 5.5 THE ISLAMIC PARTIES ................................................................................... 44 IV. CHAPTER SIX: ANALYSIS OF DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA ..................................................................... 47 6.1 THE ARAB SPRING AND DEMOCRATIC GAINS ........................................ 48 6.1.1 The pre-transition phase 2010-2011 .......................................................... 50 6.1.2 During the