Decarbonisation of Road Transport Network Operations in Australia and New Zealand 16 June 2020 1 Today’s moderator Elaena Gardner Communications Manager Austroads P: +61 2 8265 3333 E: [email protected] 2 Austroads acknowledges the Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the first inhabitants of the nation and the traditional custodians of the lands where we live, learn and work. We pay our respects to Elders past, present and emerging for they hold the memories, traditions, culture and hopes of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples of Australia. Austroads acknowledges and respects the Treaty of Waitangi and Maori as the original people of New Zealand. 3 About Austroads The peak organisation of Australasian road transport and traffic agencies • Transport for NSW • Department of Transport Victoria • Department of Transport and Main Roads Queensland • Main Roads Western Australia • Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure South Australia • Department of State Growth Tasmania • Department Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications Northern Territory • Transport Canberra and City Services Directorate, Australian Capital Territory • Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Cities and Regional Development • Australian Local Government Association • New Zealand Transport Agency 4 Our structure 5 Housekeeping Presentation = 40 mins Question time = 15 mins + Recording austroads.com.au/webinars Podcast 6 Austroads issues paper Free online access and PDFs at https://austroads.com.au/publications/network/ap-c110-20 Create an account and sign-up for RoadWatch publication and webinar alerts. 7 Send us your questions Type questions here Let us know the slide number your question relates to 8 Today’s presenter and agenda Topic Presenter Scope and methodology Global and local policy level of ambition Transport and roads in the Australian GHG accounts Richard Palmer Electric vehicles supporting emissions reduction Other levers for decarbonisation Insights Richard Palmer Principal Sustainability Consultant Integral Group E: [email protected] 9 Scope and methodology 10 Introduction to the team Project Team Review Team Austroads Project Project Manager, Austroads Manager Integral Group Working Group Richard Delplace Richard Palmer Austroads Network Task Force (Jurisdictional Project Consultant, Members) Integral Group, Cassandra de Stigter Austroads Board 11 Method 1. What is the task in reducing emissions? 2. What is the level of ambition for emissions reduction in Australia and New Zealand? 3. What role does transportation and the roads network play in contributing to emissions? 4. How might existing trends in vehicle electrification support emissions reduction in the roads sector? 5. What other opportunities are there in the roads sector to meet our ambitions? 12 Policy and Level of Ambition 13 The Emissions Reduction Task Commitments at the Paris Agreement In 2015, at the United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference, COP 21, the world’s leaders committed to limit the global average temperature rise caused by anthropogenic climate change to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pledged substantial efforts to achieve 1.5 °C. The Case for 1.5 °C Further to the commitments made at COP 21, in 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced a Special Report on the impacts of global warming above 1.5 °C, which made a compelling case for targeting 1.5 °C as a global target. Emissions Scenarios for 1.5 °C • 2030: at least 50% reduction from 2018 levels • 2050: 100% reduction from 2018 levels • 2050+: Negative emissions Emissions Gap The gap between the unconditional NDC scenario and the 1.5 °C temperature increase to be 32 GtCO2e 14 Emissions in Australia and New Zealand State/ Nation Commitment Australia • 26-28% emissions reduction by 2030 as per NDC New Zealand • Australia Total GHG Emissions (Incl and Excl LULUCF) 30% emission reduction from 2005 levels by 2030 • 100% renewable target by 2035 700,000 • Net zero emissions by 2050 600,000 New South Wales • Net zero emissions by 2050 500,000 Victoria • 25% renewable energy target by 2020 400,000 • 40% renewable energy target by 2025 300,000 • 15-20% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2020 grams CO2eq) - GHG Emissions 200,000 • 30% emissions reduction from government operations (Giga from 2015 by 2020 100,000 • Net zero emissions by 2050 0 Queensland • 50% renewable energy target by 2030 • 30% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 Total Total (Excl LULUCF) • Net zero emissions by 2050 South Australia • Achieved 20% reduction from 1990 levels • 50% emissions reduction from 2005 levels by 2030 New Zealand Total Emissions (Incl and Excl LULUCF) • Net zero emissions by 2050 90,000.00 Australian Capital • 100% renewable energy target by 2020 80,000.00 Territory • 70,000.00 40% emissions reduction from 1990 levels by 2020 60,000.00 • 50-60% emissions reduction from 1990 levels by 2025 50,000.00 • 65-75% emissions reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 40,000.00 grams CO2eq) - 30,000.00 • 90-95% emissions reduction from 1990 levels by 2040 GHG Emissions 20,000.00 • (Giga Net zero emissions by 2045 10,000.00 Western Australia • Net zero emissions by 2050 - Northern Territory • 50% renewable target by 2030 • Net zero emissions by 2050 Tasmania • 100% renewable energy target by 2022 Total Total (excl LULUCF) • Achieved 95% emissions reduction from 1990 levels in 2017 15 • Net zero emissions by 2050 Other Decarbonisation Considerations Financial Regulators • Network for Greening the Financial System • Reserve Bank of Australia • Bank of International Settlements • APRA and the BOE PRA Stress Testing Directors Duties • Centre for Policy Development Trade • EU Border Carbon Adjustment 16 Transport and roads in the Australian GHG accounts 17 Transportation and Roads Emissions Australian Transport Emissions Transportation Emissions 120,000.00 100,000.00 80,000.00 • 20% of Australian Emissions 60,000.00 Grams CO2e) - 40,000.00 • 20% of New Zealand Emissions GHG Emissions 20,000.00 (Giga 0.00 • Growing consistently since 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1990 Transport Emissions by Sector 100,000.00 Road Emissions 80,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 Grams CO2e) • Dominant contributor to transportation emissions - 20,000.00 GHG Emissions 0.00 • Growing consistently since 1990 (Giga Road Transport Domestic Aviation Railways Domestic Navigation Other Transportation Road Emissions Breakdown Road Transport Emissions by Type 50,000.00 • Cars 40,000.00 30,000.00 • Heavy duty vehicles grams CO2e) 20,000.00 - GHG Emissions • Light commercial vehicles (GIg 10,000.00 0.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 18 Cars Light Commercial Heavy Duty Motorcycles Road Sector Forecasts Road Transport Emissions Linear Projection Forecast Emissions 70 000 60 000 • Linear road sector emissions forecast 50 000 40 000 30 000 grams CO2e) - GHG Emissions 20 000 (GIg Trajectory 10 000 0 • Left unabated, the roads sector trajectory presents a 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 challenge to emissions mitigation ambitions across the Cars Light Commercial Heavy Duty Motorcycles broader economy. Source: IPCC 2018, Global warming of 1.5°C, An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. 19 Electric vehicles supporting emissions reduction 20 Electric Vehicle Scenarios Electric Vehicles Sales • No Intervention: EVs progress to 100% of new sales by 2044 (~22% by 2030) • Moderate Intervention: EVs progress to 100% of new sales by 2040 (~55% by 2030) • Accelerated Intervention: EVs progress to 100% of new sales by 2036 (~65% by 2030) Intersecting grid transformation for stationary energy emission • EVs show 50% improvement on ICE to 2030 21 Resultant Emissions Profiles due to EVs 100 The sales forecasts for EV passenger 90 80 vehicles are approximately 2% of new sales 70 in 2019, increasing to around 23% of new 60 sales by 2030. 50 eletric vehicleseletric 40 30 20 This provides for a fleet penetration of EV 10 Proportion of car and SUV fleet that are battery passenger vehicles of approximately 7% by 0 2030. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Passenger Vehicle Emissions 55 000 Fleet transition forecasts beyond 2030 are 50 000 not currently available. 45 000 40 000 grams CO2e) - GHG Emissions (GIg 35 000 30 000 Baseline Current Policy 22 Accelerating ICE Vehicle Retirement 25% 100% The likelihood that a vehicle will remain in the fleet Likelihood still in fleet 90% Attrition within year drops below 10% as follows: 20% 80% 70% • Passenger vehicles – 26 years 15% 60% 50% • Busses – 33 years 10% 40% Likelihood 30% • Light rigid vehicles – 39 years 5% 20% • Prime mover vehicles – 39 years 10% 0% 0% Annual Annual attrition proportion 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 • Heavy rigid vehicles - >50 years Years since manufacture 1.000 0.900 Under current vehicle attrition patterns, for 90% of 0.800 0.700 current vehicles to be replaced by 2050, the last 0.600 0.500 vehicles of each type must be sold by: 0.400 Likelihood 0.300 • 2024 for Passenger vehicles 0.200 0.100 • 2017 for Busses 0.000 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 • 2011 for Light rigid vehicles and prime mover vehicles Years since manufacture Passenger vehicle Light rigid Heavy rigid Prime mover Bus • 2000 for Heavy rigid vehicles 23 Other levers for emissions reduction 24 Network Management Levers for Decarbonisation Emission Reduction Levers We have three primary levels to reduce emissions across the transport sector.