NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE Prospects for the 2003 Legislative Council Election by Antony Green Background Paper No 3/03 RELATED PUBLICATIONS · Antony Green, 1999 New South Wales Legislative Council Election, Background Paper 2/2000 · Antony Green, Electing the New South Wales Legislative Council 1978 to 1995: Past Results and Future Prospects, Background Paper 2/1995 · Gareth Griffith and Sharath Srinivasan, State Upper Houses in Australia, Background Paper 1/2001 ISSN 1325-5142 ISBN 0 7313 1727 0 February 2003 © 2003 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, with the prior written consent from the Librarian, New South Wales Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the New South Wales Parliamentary Library. NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE David Clune (MA, PhD, Dip Lib), Manager.............................................. (02) 9230 2484 Gareth Griffith (BSc (Econ) (Hons), LLB (Hons), PhD), Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government / Law ......................... (02) 9230 2356 Talina Drabsch (BA, LLB), Research Officer, Law................................... (02) 9230 2768 Rowena Johns (BA (Hons), LLB), Research Officer, Law........................ (02) 9230 2003 Roza Lozusic (BA, LLB), Research Officer, Law ..................................... (02) 9230 3085 Stewart Smith (BSc (Hons), MELGL), Research Officer, Environment... (02) 9230 2798 John Wilkinson (BA (Hons), MA), Research Officer, Economics............ (02) 9230 2006 Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/WEB_FEED/PHWebContent.nsf/PHPages/LibraryPublication Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion. Prospects for the 2003 Legislative Council Election Contents Page 1 Introduction............................................................................................ 1 2 Origins of the Legislative Council and its Electoral System ................... 3 2.1 A Brief History of the Legislative Council........................................................................ 3 2.2 Changes to the Ballot Paper since 1978 ........................................................................ 5 2.3 The New Ballot Paper for 2003 ...................................................................................... 7 2.4 Changes to the Registration of Political Parties ............................................................. 8 2.5 Parties Registered to Contest the 2003 Election.......................................................... 10 3 Counting Votes for the Legislative Council .......................................... 11 3.1 The Use of Proportional Representation...................................................................... 11 3.2 Classifying Primary Votes............................................................................................. 13 3.3 Calculation of the Quota............................................................................................... 14 3.4 Determination of Surplus – Candidates Elected on Primary Vote................................ 14 Table 1: Quota and Surplus to Quota votes for Jeff Shaw (Labor) 1999 ..................... 16 3.5 Determination of Surplus – Candidates Elected During the Count .............................. 16 Table 2: Quota and Surplus to Quota votes for John Della Bosca (Labor) .................. 17 Table 3: Distribution of Labor Vote down the ticket from Jeff Shaw 1999.................... 17 3.6 Comparison with Tasmania.......................................................................................... 18 3.7 Comparison with the Senate ........................................................................................ 19 4 Lessons from Past Legislative Council Elections................................. 20 Table 4: Possible Legislative Council Result based on 2001 Senate Vote .................. 20 4.1 First Choice Parties and Candidates............................................................................ 22 Table 5: Percentage of Vote Cast for Number 1 candidate in Party Groups ............... 22 Table 6: Percentage of Group Ticket Votes ................................................................. 23 Table 7: Vacancies filled on distribution of initial surplus to quota votes...................... 23 Table 8: Percentage of Votes Staying within a Group - 1999 Election........................ 24 4.2 Between Group Preference Flows Before Ticket Voting.............................................. 24 Table 9: Flow of Preferences from Excluded Candidates 1978-84.............................. 25 Table 10 – Selected Quota Totals – 1984 Legislative Council Election ....................... 25 4.3 The Political Impact of Ticket Voting ............................................................................ 26 Table 11: Final Quota by Source – Malcolm Jones (Outdoor Recreation)................... 27 4.4 Lessons from the 1999 Election................................................................................... 27 Table 12: Preferences per Ballot Paper, 1999 Legislative Council Election ................ 28 5 Prospects for the 2003 Election........................................................... 31 5.1 Likely Performance of the Electoral System................................................................. 31 5.2 Problems that Remain with the Council’s Voting System............................................. 31 Appendices 1 Past Legislative Council Election Results ............................................ 33 2 1999 ‘Below the line’ Vote Ballot Paper Survey results ....................... 35 Acknowledgments I would like to thank NSW Electoral Commissioner, Mr John Wasson, for making available the data set of below the line votes from the 1999 New South Wales Legislative Council election. I would also like to thank staff of the State Electoral Office for their assistance, in particular the help of Mr Terry Jessop. The Author Antony Green is an Election Analyst with ABC Television, and has worked for the ABC on every federal, state and territory election coverage since 1989. He also writes regularly on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. Antony has prepared many publications for the Parliamentary Library on different aspects of New South Wales electoral politics. Party Abbreviations ALP Labor Party CDP Christian Democratic Party CTA Call to Australia DEM Australian Democrats GRN Greens IND Independents LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party OTH Others Prospect for the 2003 Legislative Council Election 1 Introduction At the 1999 New South Wales election, voters were presented with an unusual physical challenge in trying to cast their votes for the Legislative Council. A record 264 candidates nominated for 81 groups on a ballot paper measuring one metre by 700mm. Quickly nicknamed the ‘tablecloth’, the ballot paper also created novel administrative problems for polling officials and Electoral Office staff, ranging from the need to increase the width of voting booths and provide larger ballot boxes, to hiring larger forklifts, trucks and planes to cope with the extra weight of paper. As expected, the problems encountered in 1999 have produced a legislative response. Changes for the 2003 election include: · Tightened rules for the registration of political parties. (See Section 2.4) · Changes to the operation of group ticket or ‘above the line’ voting to prevent parties from automatically feeding preferences to other parties. (See Section 2.3) · Groups will have to nominate at least 15 candidates before they have access to a group ticket voting square, forcing most parties to nominate more candidates and effectively increasing the deposit fee. · A new form of ‘above the line’ voting will be introduced, allowing voters to express preferences for parties, in the same way they can express preferences for candidates ‘below the line’. (See Section 2.3) This research paper sets out to explain the complex procedures used to elect the Legislative Council, and also to speculate on how the new rules of the game will work at the 2003 election. The publication is arranged as follows: Section 2 provides some historical background on the Legislative Council and its electoral system. A brief history of the Legislative Council is provided, along with background on changes to the ballot paper and the registration of political parties since 1978. A brief summary of the new procedures for the 2003 election is provided, along with a list of parties registered to contest the election. Section 3 explains in detail the counting procedures and calculations used in the count. What is a quota? How are preferences distributed from excluded candidates? What are surplus to quota votes for elected candidates and how are they determined? How is the New South Wales system different from those used to elect the Commonwealth Senate and Tasmanian House