Population Council Knowledge Commons Poverty, Gender, and Youth Social and Behavioral Science Research (SBSR) 2019 Climate, population, and vulnerability in Pakistan: Exploring evidence of linkages for adaptation G.M. Arif Muhammad Riaz Nadeem Faisal Mohammad Jamal Khan Khattak Zeba Sathar Population Council See next page for additional authors Follow this and additional works at: https://knowledgecommons.popcouncil.org/departments_sbsr-pgy Part of the Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons, Environmental Public Health Commons, Environmental Studies Commons, Family, Life Course, and Society Commons, International Public Health Commons, and the Medicine and Health Commons How does access to this work benefit ou?y Let us know! Recommended Citation Sathar, Zeba and Kiren Khan (eds.). 2019. "Climate, population, and vulnerability in Pakistan: Exploring evidence of linkages for adaptation." Islamabad: Population Council. This Monograph is brought to you for free and open access by the Population Council. Authors G.M. Arif, Muhammad Riaz, Nadeem Faisal, Mohammad Jamal Khan Khattak, Zeba Sathar, Muhammad Khalil, Maqsood Sadiq, Sabahat Hussain, and Kiren Khan This monograph is available at Knowledge Commons: https://knowledgecommons.popcouncil.org/ departments_sbsr-pgy/733 CLIMATE, POPULATION, AND VULNERABILITY IN PAKISTAN EXPLORING EVIDENCE OF LINKAGES FOR ADAPTATION CLIMATE, POPULATION, AND VULNERABILITY IN PAKISTAN EXPLORING EVIDENCE OF LINKAGES FOR ADAPTATION The Population Council’s Population, Environmental Risk, and Climate Change (PERCC) initiative is a multidisciplinary effort to understand how environmental changes affect demographic trends and the impact they have on vulnerable populations. The Council is bringing together its experience in social and behavioral science research, diverse perspectives, data, methodologies, and tools to better understand the many facets of adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. This evidence will inform programs, policies and technologies that ensure the grave threat of climate change does not roll-back decades of progress in reducing poverty and improving lives around the world. ABOUT THIS MONOGRAPH Climate, Population, and Vulnerability in Pakistan: Exploring Evidence of Linkages for Adaption uses diverse data sources to initiate an interdisciplinary conversation on the interlinkages of climate change and demography through contributions from national experts in meteorology, migration, and agriculture. The aim is to provide a regionally nuanced perspective of the climatic changes to which the population is exposed; the key demographic and socioeconomic trends that have a bearing on vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation; internal migration; and the expected combined impact of these dynamics on the country’s food and economic mainstay—agriculture. ABOUT THE AUTHORS G. M. Arif is Former Joint Director, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Muhammad Riaz is Director-General, Pakistan Meterological Department, Islamabad. Nadeem Faisal is Director, Climate Data Processing Centre, Pakistan Meterological Department, Karachi. Mohammad Jamal Khan Khattak is Chairman, Department of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture, Peshawar. Zeba Sathar is Country Director and Senior Associate; Muhammad Khalil is Program Manager (ICT); Maqsood Sadiq is Deputy Program Manager; Sabahat Hussain is Program Officer; and Kiren Khan is Consulting Editor, Population Council. Citation: Sathar Z.A. and K. Khan (eds). 2019. Climate, Population, and Vulnerability in Pakistan: Exploring Evidence of Linkages for Adaptation. Islamabad: Population Council. The Population Council confronts critical health and development issues—from stopping the spread of HIV to improving reproductive health and ensuring that young people lead full and productive lives. Through biomedical, social science, and public health research in 50 countries, we work with our partners to deliver solutions that lead to more effective policies, programs, and technologies that improve lives around the world. Established in 1952 and headquartered in New York, the Council is a nongovernmental, nonprofit organization governed by an international board of trustees. popcouncil.org © 2019 The Population Council, Inc. Contents Foreword 4 John Bongaarts Introduction 6 Kiren Khan and Sabahat Hussain Chapter 1: Climate Change in Pakistan 11 Nadeem Faisal and Mohammad Riaz Chapter 2: Exploring the Implications of Climate Change and Population Growth for Agricultural Productivity 31 Mohammad Jamal Khan Khattak Chapter 3: Population Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Pakistan’s Agroecological Zones: A Preliminary Data Analysis 45 Maqsood Sadiq, Zeba Sathar and Muhammad Khalil Chapter 4: Climate Change and Migration-as-Adaptation in Pakistan: Preliminary Findings 61 G.M. Arif and Maqsood Sadiq Epilogue 76 References 77 Foreword The global discussion of climate change and its impacts and causes has changed completely in the past quarter century. The contentious debate about whether global warming is real and whether humans are to blame has been settled and the consensus of public and scientific opinion now accepts that rapid warming is occurring and that greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted as a result of human activities are largely to blame. The consequences of taking no action will be catastrophic. Unfortunately, the burden of impact will fall disproportionately on the poor and most vulnerable people who rely heavily on agriculture in countries where average temperatures are already high. Climate change is particularly harmful because it increasingly threatens food security in these countries. Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world. The food-supply system is increasingly disrupted by shortages of fresh water, by floods, droughts, storms and other types of extreme weather, as well as by desertification and soil erosion. These changes are occurring as demand for agricultural products continues to rapidly rise due to population growth and improving diets. The population now stands at about 216 million and is expected to increase to 400 million by 2100. In addition, there is little room for expanding land for productive agriculture since most potential arable land is already serving human needs (e.g., for crops and grazing land, and for infrastructure). Clearly, action is urgently needed. The latest major effort of the international community to address global warming was the Paris Agreement reached in 2016 within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Agreement aimed to reduce the effects of climate change by limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level. Under the Agreement, each country must determine, plan, and regularly report on the contribution that it undertakes to mitigate global warming. According to a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires “unprecedented” and extremely steep cuts in global GHG emissions. To meet the Paris goal, emissions must be reduced by half in 2030 and reach “net zero” around 2050. The Paris goal seems unachievable because the commitments made by governments are insufficient to meet the goal and several countries (including the US) have either withdrawn from the agreement or are not meeting even their own limited objectives. Given this lack of progress in mitigation efforts, it is very likely that the world will exceed the 1.5°C limit in the next few decades and much higher temperatures could be reached by 2100. As a result, the world must get ready for a wide range of adverse effects on natural and man- made systems and on human society. There is an especially urgent need for more effective adaptation measures to protect vulnerable populations. 4 This report provides an excellent and timely overview of the challenges faced by Pakistan. Climate change is expected to have wide-ranging effects including an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased intrusion of saline waters in the Indus delta. All of these changes put additional stresses on agricultural production to increase crop yields, which is already threatened by dwindling per capita availability of land and water due to population growth, land fragmentation, and urbanization. A key response to these environmental risks has been the migration of people from threatened areas to elsewhere in Pakistan and overseas. This adaptation strategy of households aims to reduce both environmental and economic risks. Unfortunately, many migrants end up in receiving areas where jobs may be scarce and in slums in urban areas where living conditions are often very poor. This highly accessible report deserves to be widely read by policymakers, researchers, and the general public. It is a wake-up call to take climate change seriously and prepare for the unprecedented challenges ahead. John Bongaarts Distinguished Scholar Population Council 5 Introduction In its framework for implementation of the Climate Change Policy 2012, the Government of Pakistan (2013) has identified nine major threats to water, food, and energy security arising from these emerging environmental stresses in various parts of the country. These include: • Considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon rains causing frequent and intense floods and droughts; • Projected recession of the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan