ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON WHEAT, BARLEY AND TEFF CROPS PRODUCTION IN THE SOUTH WOLLO ZONE OF ETHIOPIA By: Endalamaw Wende Wasihun A Thesis Submitted to Applied Physics Department School of Applied Natural Science Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Master’s in Applied Physics (Meteorology) Office of Graduate Studies Adama Science and Technology University Adama, Ethiopia November, 2018 i ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON WHEAT, BARLEY AND TEFF CROPS PRODUCTION IN THE SOUTH WOLLO ZONE OF ETHIOPIA By: Endalamaw Wende Wasihun Advisor: Diriba Korecha (PhD) A Thesis Submitted to Applied physics program School of Applied Natural Science Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Master’s in Applied Physics (Meteorology) Office of Graduate studies Adama Science and Technology University Adama, Ethiopia November, 2018 ii Approval Sheet of the Board of Examiners We, the undersigned Members of the Board Examiners of the final open defense by Endalamaw Wende Wasihun have read and evaluated his thesis entitled: “Assessing the impact of rainfall variability on three major crops Production in the South Wollo Zone of Ethiopia” and examiner the candidate. Therefore, this is to certify that the thesis has been accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirement of the degree of Masters in Applied Physics (Meteorology). 26/11/2018 Major Advisor Signatu re Date ________________ ___________ __________ Chairperson Signature Date ________________ ___________ ___________ Internal Examiner Signature Date ________________ __________ __________ External Examiner Signature Date i Declaration I hereby, declare that this MSc Thesis is my own original work and that it has not be presented for a degree in any other University ,and all sources of material used for this thesis have been dully acknowledged. This thesis has been submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for MSc.degree in Applied Physics (Meteorology) at Adama Science and Technology University and deposited at the University library to be made available to borrowers under the rules of the Library. Name: Endalamaw Wende Wasihun Signature: ________________ This MSc Thesis has been submitted for examination with my approval as Thesis advisor. Advisor: Diriba Korecha (PhD) Signature: _ Date of Submission: __26/11/2018 ii Advisor’s Approval Sheet To: Applied Physics Department Subject: Thesis Submission This is to certify that the Thesis entitled “Assessing the impact of rainfall variability on three major crops Production in the South Wollo Zone of Ethiopia”, submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master‟s in Applied Physics (Meteorology), the graduate program of the department of Applied Physics, and has been carried out by Endalamaw Wende Wasihun Id.No GSR/0205/2009, under our supervision. Therefore, we recommended that the student has fulfilled the requirements and hence here by he can submit the thesis to the department. Endalamaw Wende Wasihun _______________ ____________ Student signature Date Diriba Korecha (PhD) 26/11/2018 Advisor Signature Date iii BIOGRAPH OF THE AUTHOR The author, Endalamaw Wende, was born on January 29/1986 in Mehal Saint Woreda, South Wollo Zone of Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia from his father Wende Wasihun and his mother Beletu Alemu. He attended his elementary and junior school at Gert and Denssa Primary and Secondary Schools, respectively. After completion of elementary and junior school, he attended grade 9-10 at SaintAdjibar high school and grade 11-12 at Borena preparatory school. After passing the Ethiopian School Leaving Certificate (ESLC) in 2004, he joined Arbaminch University in 2005 and graduated with a BSc degree in Meteorology Science in 2007. Soon after his graduation, he was employed by the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) at Kombolcha Meteorological Branch Directorate. He has also a BSc degree in Civil Engineering from Wollo University in 2017 with Extension program. He served as a meteorologist until he joined the School of Graduate Studies of Adama Science and Technology University in October 2017 to pursue his MSc. study in the field of Applied physics Specialization in Meteorology. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENT First and for most, I would like to extend my unshared thanks to the almighty God for helping me in every aspect of my work. Next for all, my greatest thanks goes to my advisor Dr. Diriba Korecha, for his continuous guidance, valuable advice, insight and critical comments starting from proposal development to the completion of the research work. I am greatly indebted to my whole family for their help, care and support throughout my thesis work from beginning up to the end with courage moral support. I would like to express my appreciation to the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) for giving me the chance to pursue my study and provide meteorological data. My greatest thanks also go to the Office of South Wollo Zone Early Warning department especially Mr. Mohamed Seid for providing me crop yield and production data. The last but not least, I am indebted to address my appreciation to my friend Mr. Mamush G/Tsion for his inclusive, support and encouragement when I was doing this research. v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ANRS Amhara National Regional State ANOVA Analysis Of Variance CHIRPS Climate Hazards Groups Infra-Red Precipitation with Stations CC Climate Change CV Coefficient of Variation CSA Central Statistics Agency CDCC Copping with Drought and Climate Change DOY Day of Year EOS End of Season ENSO El Niño Southern- Oscillation ERSST Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature FAO Food and Agricultural Organization FMAM February, March, Apr and May INSTAT Interactive Statistical Processing Package IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRI International Research Institute for Climate and Society ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone JJAS June, July August and September KEOS Kiremt End of Season KLGP Kiremt Length of Period KNRD Kiremt Number of Rainy Days KRT Kiremt Rainfall Total KSOS Kiremt Start of Season vi LGP Length of Growing Period MoEDC Ministry of Economic Development and Co-operation NDD Number of Dry Day RF Rain Fall NMA National Meteorological Agency NMSA National Meteorology Services Agency NRD Number of Rainy Day RT Rainfall Total SD Standard Deviation SOS Start of Season SST Sea Surface Temperature SSTa Sea Surface Temperature anomaly SWBMLZ South Wollo Belg-Meher Livelihood Zone SWZ South Wollo Zone UN, OCHA United Nation Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs USAID United States Agency for International Development WMO World Meteorological Organization vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENT ............................................................................................................. v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... xi LISTS OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................... xiii LIST OF TABLES IN THE APPENDIX ................................................................................. xiv LIST OF FIGURES IN THE APPENDIX ................................................................................ xv Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... xvi 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Statement of the Problem ................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Objectives .......................................................................................................................... 5 1.3.1 General objective......................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 Specific Objectives of the Study ................................................................................. 5 1.4 Research Questions ............................................................................................................ 6 1.5 Scope and Limitation of the Study .................................................................................... 6 2. LITERATURE REVIEWS ...................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia .......................................................................................... 7 2.2 Agro- Climatic Zones and Seasons in Ethiopia ................................................................. 8 2.3 Seasons and the Associated Climatic Factors in South Wollo Zone ................................. 9 2.3.1 Bega Seasons ............................................................................................................... 9 2.3.2 Belg Seasons ............................................................................................................. 10 2.3.3 Kiremt Seasons .........................................................................................................