Tropical Cyclone Tauktae - Estimated Impacts Warning 7, 15 May 2021 2100 UTC PDC-1I-7A JTWC Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN EVOLVING EYE FEATURE.THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 151703Z AMSU-B 89GHZ PASS AND COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA.THE INITIAL INTENSITY 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS AND ADT OF T3.9/63KTS.THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.TC 01A IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 36.AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR VERAVAL, INDIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48.THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) REMAINS HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36.AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LAND INTERACTION.AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120, POSSIBLY SOONER.... Pakistan Estimated Wind Impacts Trop ical Cyclone Pos itions Ï Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph 2021 MAY 18, 18:00Z Bhopal Ï ! Ï Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph ! Ahmadabad Ï Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph Ï Tropical Depression: <39 mph )"Ï Current Cyclone Position Es t Wind Im p acts (TAOS) Small Trees Sway Ï 2021 MAY 1722, S1E8P1:30 -0 1Z800UTC 22SEP13 - 0600UTC Large Trees Sway 21SEP13 - 1800IUnTCdia Branches Breaking Trees Down; some power loss 21SEP13 - 1800UTC ! Minor Damage; power out 2021 MAY 17, 06:00Z 21SEP13 - 0600UTC Pune Moderate Damage 5% of value Ï ! Widespread Damage Severe Damage Catastrophic Damage Ï 2021 MAY 16, 18:00Z ! 0 60 120 240 Miles Ï 2021 MAY 16, 06:00Z 0 60 120 240 Kilometers 2021 MAY 15, 18:00Z 2021 MAY 15, 12:00Z)"Ï Ï 2021 MAY 15, 06:00Z Banga¯lore ! Estimated Still Water Storm SuÏrge Estimated Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Ï Afghanistan China Delhi !Ï Iran Pakistan Nepal Ï Karachi Ï ! India Ï India Ï Oman Ï Mumbai ! < 1 in Ï 1-3 ft Ï 1-3 in 3-6 ft Ï 3-6 in 6-9 ft Ï 9-12 ft Ï 6-9 in )"Ï 12-15 ft 9-12 in Ï 15-20 ft 12-24 in Ï ÏÏ >20 ft )"Ï > 24 in Pacific Dis as ter Center | 5/15/2021 | http ://w w w .p dc.org | res p ons e@p dc.org |Data: NOAA, KinetiCas tTC, ESRI. © 2015-2021 Pacific Dis as ter Center (PDC) – All rights res erved. Com m ercial us e is p erm itted only w ith exp licit ap p roval of PDC. The delineation of p olitical b oundaries , and as s ociated data s how n here do not im p ly endors em ent b y PDC..